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130 sats \ 6 replies \ @jgbtc 16h \ parent \ on: What's one of your more controversial opinions? AskSN

Imagine two people, Alice and Bob, heard about Bitcoin at the same time, and both had the same means and opportunity to buy the same amount. Alice was curious and intrigued by the idea and bought some while Bob dismissed it as a ponzi scam. Several years later Alice is very happy with the result and believes more than ever in bitcoin's potential, while Bob still claims it's a ponzi and likes to point out that Alice "just got lucky". Do you agree with Bob about her getting lucky in this scenario?

33 sats \ 0 replies \ @SimpleStacker 15h

I would think Bob is probably coping, but if Alice were to rub it in Bob's face and call him dumb, I don't think Alice would be right either.

30 sats \ 2 replies \ @Aardvark OP 16h

Yes absolutely I agree with Bob. It's extremely easy to be judgemental in hindsight. What if years later Alice lost her ass because the US government changed capital gains on BTC, and it got regulated to near death?

Also maybe Alice isn't always open minded, but that day she was. Maybe Bob listened to people who are extremely trustworthy that happened to be wrong.

It's easy to be snobby when your decisions turned out to be correct, but none of this is written in stone.

33 sats \ 1 reply \ @jgbtc 15h

Good points, but this makes me wonder if everything is "just luck". By your logic it seems like any good decision could be "just luck" in someone else's view.

126 sats \ 0 replies \ @Aardvark OP 15h

You're lucky to even have enough fiat to be able to get Bitcoin. You live on a planet where 12,000 people starve to death every day.

Most people are oblivious to the fact that their outcomes have way more to do with luck than they care to admit.

I mean, congratulations on making one decision that worked out, but what of Bob invested in AI and got 10x the returns that Alice did?

Stack stats and stay humble, there's a reason that statement is so important.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @ek 15h

Both were lucky to hear about bitcoin, one was just also ignorant/stupid/whatever for too long; like most of us were the first time we heard about bitcoin.

"I wish I bought bitcoin the first time I heard about it years ago."

I think the point I am trying to make is that it's too easy to think when something good happens to us, it's because we earned it 100% and there was absolutely no luck involved. But when something bad happens to us, the world is against us. I am obviously overgeneralizing, but I would say that is something we all experienced in ourselves or in others at some point.

I think all we can do in life is to increase our chances of luck. That's not luck, but there is still some luck required in the end to be successful; whatever that means to you.

Btw, thanks for the reply, I usually don't know how to talk about what I want to talk about when nobody asks me about it, lol.

100 sats \ 0 replies \ @jgbtc 15h

Thanks for posting an interesting philosophical problem! Maybe there is an issue with the word "luck". It seems to be used in two ways. 1) in regards to initial conditions or things outside our control, and 2) in regards to good outcomes of decisions we make in the past. I totally agree with #1 that luck is involved, but #2 is a problem especially when I see people using it to diminish someone's ability to make a good judgement call, which was what I was getting at in my little thought experiment. For #2 I think it's not fair to call it it luck as there was clearly some choice involved. But honestly I'm not totally sure.