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40 sats \ 3 replies \ @HardMoney 31 Mar \ on: Totally Unbiased Polling in Canada Politics_And_Law
It’s astonishing seeing how much support Carney has seemingly gathered. I don’t trust the polls but polymarket reflects a pretty large gap.
If liberals win again I think Alberta might legitimately separate
https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minster-of-canada
It's hard to gauge what is real and what is propaganda. I think it is very close. NDP are crashing and Liberals are picking up voters from them theoretically but are all those NDP voters actually going to get out to vote for a banker? Sure they might say they prefer Liberals over Conservatives but when it comes time to get out and vote how motivated will they be to do it. Also polls are showing a big surge for the Liberals in Quebec. That would be surprising as primarily English speaking candidates don't usually do well in Quebec.
The polymarket thing is interesting. 28M is not a lot of liquidity and there is a huge incentive for the Liberals to maintain the perception of momentum.
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Yes definitely a lot easier to manipulate than the US election prediction markets. Likely some lesson learned too from trump win that you need prediction markets to be close to polls for the appearance of legitimacy.
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I also think the Liberals learned from Kamala initial hype and then dying down. They called the election asap which makes them look like they respect democracy and they can still ride the wave of leadership change. Liberals have better strategists and campaign managers than Conservatives. They are scum who only care about winning and don't care if the country is ruined, but they are good at what they do.
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