If you are wondering why Canada is filled with sheeple, here is an example of an election survey question from one of Canada's most “respected” pollsters.
It's hard to gauge what is real and what is propaganda. I think it is very close. NDP are crashing and Liberals are picking up voters from them theoretically but are all those NDP voters actually going to get out to vote for a banker? Sure they might say they prefer Liberals over Conservatives but when it comes time to get out and vote how motivated will they be to do it. Also polls are showing a big surge for the Liberals in Quebec. That would be surprising as primarily English speaking candidates don't usually do well in Quebec.
The polymarket thing is interesting. 28M is not a lot of liquidity and there is a huge incentive for the Liberals to maintain the perception of momentum.
Yes definitely a lot easier to manipulate than the US election prediction markets. Likely some lesson learned too from trump win that you need prediction markets to be close to polls for the appearance of legitimacy.
I also think the Liberals learned from Kamala initial hype and then dying down. They called the election asap which makes them look like they respect democracy and they can still ride the wave of leadership change. Liberals have better strategists and campaign managers than Conservatives. They are scum who only care about winning and don't care if the country is ruined, but they are good at what they do.
It's not meant to make sense. It is meant to convince undecided NDP (far left) voters who don't like the Liberals to get out and vote for the Liberals.
The alliance between pollsters and the media is tight. Media buys pollster data. Pierre Poilievre has vowed to cut federal funding to media outlets.