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Trump announces tarrifs tomorrow. What happens?
686 sats \ 30 comments \ @Aardvark 1 Apr AskSN
Is he going to go way overboard? Will the tarrifs be semi reasonable? Will he stop creating uncertainty in the market?
Honestly my biggest hope is that he does whatever he's going to to, and then shuts the fuck up. Unfortunately, I think he's going to keep saying stupid things and make it extremely difficult for the market to recover anytime soon.
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590 sats \ 10 replies \ @justin_shocknet 1 Apr
The worst and lowest signal people think nothing good can come of it, so the opposite is all but guaranteed
Possible outcomes:
  • Overall tariffs actually get reduced as other countries face the consequences of reciprocity, velocity of money increases in lower tariff environment
  • New tariffs get applied and this crushes foreign currencies reliant on dollar exports, US consumers barely notice as dollar purchasing power increases while the foreign countries get margin called
  • The markets shit a kitten and forces Fed capitulation later in the week, giving the Treasury Sec nearly complete control
  • This sets something even spicier with China into motion, an operationalized "black swan" event that leads to an even bigger globo-economic restructuring
Order emerges from chaos so I'd expect some combination of all of these.
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17 sats \ 2 replies \ @Bell_curve 3h
https://watcher.guru/news/canada-willing-to-remove-tariffs-if-us-does-doug-ford-says
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17 sats \ 1 reply \ @Bell_curve 3h
JUST IN: 🇲🇽🇺🇸 Mexican President Sheinbaum says she will not impose tit for tat tariffs on the US.
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52 sats \ 0 replies \ @justin_shocknet 3h
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136 sats \ 5 replies \ @Undisciplined 1 Apr
Overall tariffs actually get reduced as other countries face the consequences of reciprocity
This is an interesting angle that gets overlooked. You hear a lot of concern about retaliatory tariffs, as though other countries don't already have more protectionist measures than the US.
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304 sats \ 3 replies \ @justin_shocknet 1 Apr
Right on schedule
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43 sats \ 1 reply \ @Aardvark OP 1 Apr
It's going to be fin to see how many more follow suite.
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42 sats \ 0 replies \ @justin_shocknet 1 Apr
I think its better for my DXY calls that many don't 🍿
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17 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 10h
boom kaboom (Hamas pagers exploding)
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41 sats \ 0 replies \ @justin_shocknet 1 Apr
Yea seems like everyone is either clueless or lying.
Even the few somewhat respectable talking heads that should know better aren't talking about the currency implications of something like this either, that must be the quiet part which is verboten to speak of.
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17 sats \ 0 replies \ @Aardvark OP 1 Apr
I think this is the most sane take. Thanks for spreading some good vibes today.
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109 sats \ 0 replies \ @optimism 1 Apr
Is he going to go way overboard?
I don't think he will but people will narrate that it's so.
Will the tarrifs be semi reasonable?
I believe they will.
Will he stop creating uncertainty in the market?
No. Because "the market" is Wall Street and they're sacrificing that "in favor of Main Street", which means chaos. (I'm having trouble finding the Fox & Friends episode where this was stated last month - does anyone have it?)
On that note, if you combine this with more than a handful of my friends/relatives in Europe currently actively pursuing what they call deamericanization - which generally means getting rid of all Apple, FB, Google and MS stuff because that's easy - the effects of that won't show up on trade balances because it's not so much goods but services, digital services in particular, where America reigns in the rest of the West. They're gonna hurt though, and if we can push a bunch of Euros to use FOSS then the world has a chance of getting a little better.
Never. Bend. The. Knee.
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100 sats \ 1 reply \ @BlokchainB 1 Apr
I think countries talk tough to their citizens but will make deals to keep the cash flowing
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78 sats \ 0 replies \ @Aardvark OP 1 Apr
I hope so. I'd like things to just calm down a bit economically.
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42 sats \ 0 replies \ @j7hB75 1 Apr
Just wild speculation, but Bitcoin price in relation to fiat will fall >10%. There will be a small pump (today) followed by a massive dump (tonight into tomorrow). Stocks and indexes will follow suit as well. Tomorrow will be a shit show.
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42 sats \ 0 replies \ @denlillaapan 1 Apr
Civilisations are not murdered, said the historian Arnold Toynbee. They die from suicide.
The FT, providing its regular, normal, non-hyperbolic idiot takes.
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67 sats \ 0 replies \ @halalmoney 1 Apr
Tick, tock Trump shock
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57 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 1 Apr
The uncertainty would be over from the market.
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @Riberet 1 Apr
I'm also one of those who believes that their stupidity isn't over yet
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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Bell_curve 1 Apr
What is semi reasonable?
The reaction to tariffs have been over the top. We have had uncertainty for 6 weeks or longer.
Trump doesn’t control market behavior.
Tariffs are not inflationary. Otherwise sales tax or vat would be inflationary
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14 sats \ 1 reply \ @Aardvark OP 1 Apr
Trump doesn’t control market behavior.
The things he says has a direct effect on the market. The fact that anyone would argue otherwise is laughable
Tariffs are not inflationary. Otherwise sales tax or vat would be inflationary
Even though nobody brought it up, all of those things create "price inflation", not to be confused with "monitary inflation". They ate two separate things that people are confusing quite often right now.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 23h
Are you voting today in Wisconsin?
Do you care about judicial activism in your state?
edit: since you already have the answer to your own question, why ask SN??? Simply tell SN users what you think you know
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Bell_curve 10h
Wisconsin will be governed by 4 left wing judicial activists. Wisconsin is done. It will become a third world shithole like Madison and Milwaukee
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Aardvark OP 7h
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 11h
No LIBERTARIANS speaking out against Tariffs??
So much for the free market rulezzz...
Have Libertarians become closet STATISTS?
Acknowledging, by default, that the state is a major factor in the wealth of nations...
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Butterfinger 19h
Here is a good article about it: https://www.unz.com/acrooke/transactional-weakness-tips-the-balance-of-power-hold-to-no-illusions-there-is-nothing-beyond-this-reality/
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Ge 20h
Lol I'm ready to see some action will really see who can sink or swim in general
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 22h
China has won the trade war. Trumps tariffs are admission that US industry cannot compete with China and other nations. Tariffs result in all US consumers paying more than the rest of the world does for all the products tariffs are applied to. Tariffs are only ever logical if you expect war and need to rebuild your national supply chains for strategic reasons.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @itsrealfake 23h
tarriffs will be less than anticipated, markets will bump. "see, markets love tarriffs"
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TheMorningStar 1 Apr
US will get the tarrifs back.
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