ouuuww, so fucked. Anecdotally, we who hang out here do feel the quiet... though perhaps not today, which seemed to me a very busy day (#944137, #943891).
It's the same old few dozen voices: SN ain't going nowhere!
Yes, we're talking about these Predyx bets:
Another middle-of-the-month, another bad read. It's all just going in one direction.
We are not posting enough; we aren't zapping enough; there aren't enough interactions... the bet money is MIIIINE!
Daily rate for April so far is 916 items a day, and to hit the 1.4m target we need about 1,550 a day. Prev observations have been in the 1300s, then 1200s... then 1100. My mid-March observation (#914289) had a rolling two-week rate of 952... but we've now hit an EVEN lower number.
In the last 46 days we've done 965 a day; 1,073 a day for the year as a whole. We're 28.8% through the year, but less than 20% toward the target.
What's worse is that these regular misses accumulate. For the remaining 260 days of the year, SN literally gotta do about double the current rate (1,752 a day). Man, it takes some cojones thinking the masses will be piling in like that... That seems, um, impossible.
I saw there was some activity in the 1.4m bet after I had posted my last thing… including what looks like @ek piling in on the Yes side; thank you, sir, for your sats donation to our party!
I was gonna taper off the buying of this No contract (counterparty risk; rug risk)... but then I saw that @Undisciplined MYSTERIOUSLY owns more No shares than me (at a lower entry price??). I guess I gotta keep piling on...@mega_dreamer be happy
Anyway, til NEXT TIME, Stackers!