Another middle-of-the-month, another chart; another bet update. TL;DR—it ain't going well for the YESers.

Last time I timed this post exactly to item #900,000 (#900000). That was fun; that was appropriate.

...but we can't always be that troll-y. Nothing much interesting is happening with the SN trajectory, and nothing much interesting is happening with @denlillaapan's twice-a-month (bi-monthly? di-monthly?! always confused me, that one) summary.

The two Predyx bets relevant are:

For the first bet we must average 1,550 items a day (for the 1.5m 1,830!! a day) for all of 2025. For March, we've done 952 — a new all-time low for any time I've been on SN. For the last 26 days (last two summaries I've done) we're even below the symbolic, psychological 1k barrier! Ai'nt doing well, are we??

for the year we're still at 1,115 by my count, by that's frontloaded by high rates in the first weeks of the year before we've craaaashlanded down to the 950s where we are now. The people don't wanna post much to SN anymore ("...but the people are retarded..."). Current shortfall is about 33,000 items, or a little over a month behind.. OOOPS: Bulls really need to believe that an overall Bitcoin bullrun be spilling over into SN activity

There's been some odd action in both of these bets: Incredibly, and for some unfathomable reason, peeps are ignoring my very diligent posts and somehow buying the YES contracts. (This must be how Darth feels, shilling his valuable guides with no takers...) I mean, I'm as much a sats whore as the next guy, so if you're offering me free sats, I will take them!

I have added to my positions, and I am now the proud owner of about 20k shares (with about 9,000 sats invested) of NO contracts between these two bets. Since the Bitcoin.Prediction market winded down (congrats @mega_dreamer for beating out the competition!) and returned me my 15,000 sats from the national-debt bet (which I was totally winning, btw! #772620), I now have fresh capital to deploy to this failing market. DON'T MIND IF I DOOOOO.

In other news, I also managed to sort out my silly excel error...and the goal graph is now a straight line. (All I did was change the unit of account from days to months; now every month is treated as 1/12 of the way, every middle-of-the-month observation as one-half of one-twelfth... thus, short months are slightly disfavored compared to long months, but we're so far below the goal graph anyway that those tiny differences won't matter. MAKE MONTHS THE UNIT!) — for illustration> the day-unit goal for March 15 is 20.27% through the year, whereas the month-unit gives 20.83%... but since the post count is hopelessly behind at 14.52%, NOBODY CARES ABOUT THE ROUNDING ERROR!

Alligator gap between where we are and where we need to be for these bets is really opening up now. Is there gonna be a comeback?! Is denlillaapan wasting his precious sats?!

Prev Bet update posts: #900000 #888487 #850716 #871820