If Earth's history is any guide, life in the universe may be more common — and faster — than we thought.

A new study published in the journal Astrobiology suggests that life could emerge quickly on Earth-like planets once the right conditions are present. The research was led by astronomer David Kipping of Columbia University.

Kipping bases his hypothesis on Earth's own timeline: our planet formed about 4.5 billion years ago, and life would have emerged only 250 million years later, around 4.2 billion years ago. This speed is impressive, considering that intelligent life, such as humans, only appeared shortly before the Sun began to degrade Earth's habitable conditions — an event predicted to occur in less than 1 billion years.

"If life had taken longer to emerge, there might never have been enough time for intelligent beings to evolve," Kipping explains. "This suggests that, given the right conditions, life tends to emerge quickly."

The study goes further: an updated Bayesian statistical analysis suggests that the odds of rapid abiogenesis — the spontaneous emergence of life from non-living compounds — are 13 to 1. In the scientific field, a ratio of 10 to 1 is already considered strong evidence.

These findings reinforce the idea that life may be a relatively common phenomenon in the universe, especially on planets that mirror the conditions of early Earth.

Kipping, however, makes an important reservation: his conclusions are based on life originating on Earth itself, and not on theories such as panspermia, which propose that life may have come from elsewhere in space.

As new evidence about the origin of life on Earth emerges, these estimates may be refined — but for now, the study fuels optimism in the search for life beyond our planet.

Sources