What to improve for the Predyx platform? \ stacker news ~devs

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What to improve for the Predyx platform?

1246 sats \ 45 comments \ @south_korea_ln 1 May devs

Triggered by some recent interaction with the Predyx platform (#968057), I'm noting there are a few things I'd like to see improved.

A better way to check at how much I bought certain shares when trying to sell them from within a market
The "more" button when checking my portfolio just scrolls me back to the top of the screen instead of actually showing me my other ongoing markets
...

Any other suggestions (coz that's what they are... far from being requests)?

@mega_dreamer

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42 sats \ 1 reply \ @mega_dreamer 1 May

Thanks - we are listening. Will respond with timelines once we more on the list. cc @emre

101 sats \ 0 replies \ @south_korea_ln OP 1 May

Great~~

Unrelated, any opinion on this one: #965389? Thought of tagging you there but I forgot. Is this something you considered when deciding to resolve markets yourself rather than relying on oracle mechanisms?

1101 sats \ 22 replies \ @DarthCoin 1 May

The best improvement: just shut it down.

51 sats \ 2 replies \ @mega_dreamer 22h

The best option is to shutdown all the Bitcoin businesses.

People should only acquire bitcoin by mining. People should also not rely of state supplied electricity. They must produce electricity only by breeding millions of hamsters and having them run on hamster wheel 24/7.

And when you want to buy the feed for the hamster, you can NOT use trucks/cars, you must ride to the store on a Hamster buggy.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @DarthCoin 13h

Did your life depend 100% of bets ?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 13h

I didn't quiet understand.

101 sats \ 18 replies \ @klk 1 May

why?

0 sats \ 17 replies \ @DarthCoin 13h

Because it's useless thing, a scam.

0 sats \ 16 replies \ @klk 3h

Useless: being able to have a hedge against too little rains can be useful for a farmer for example. Knowing the best estimate of the probability of a war starting in your country can be useful as well. It's like saying Bitcoin is useless because some people use it to gamble.
Scam: why?

0 sats \ 15 replies \ @DarthCoin 3h

You never think (use your brain) that all these "predictions" are in fact data grabbing for more "evil" things? YOU ARE BEING USED! ofc a NPC can't think of that...

People (NPCs) nowadays are so gullible that will give away so much information for free, but thinking that "betting" on it will give them some more sats, but instead insurance companies are willing to pay a fortune only for what their clients will think about.... weather.

YOU ARE SO FUCKING GULLIBLE! Do not sell your soul for few sats!

0 sats \ 14 replies \ @klk 3h

The information that one person has about the likelihood of an event is rarely worth a fortune. The aggregate of the “weighted” (by stake) of a large enough group can be.

But let's look at it from the other side, how can a Bitcoin maxi get insurance? Going to those evil guys, going through KYC, and giving them some fiat? How is this better?

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121 sats \ 4 replies \ @Undisciplined 1 May

Bids and asks would be an interesting improvement.

41 sats \ 2 replies \ @mega_dreamer 22h

We'll work on the "Bids and Asks" or limit orders in phase two.

We're almost done with phase 1.

Phase 2 will begin starting June 1st.

101 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 22h

Cool.

I noticed a bug last night. I sold my shares of Yes on the Lakers in the NBA Championship market. I received the sats and no longer have the shares, but the odds never adjusted to the sale.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 21h

Looking into it. cc @emre

131 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 1 May

I will bid 0 for your Leafs YES shares if you are interested.

101 sats \ 7 replies \ @klk 1 May

Make it non custodial.

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined 22h

It basically is. You can buy from and sell to your external wallet. The custodial wallet just holds payments when there's a problem with my lightning payment.

35 sats \ 2 replies \ @klk 22h

I meant the bet positions themselves. Something cool from polymarket is that they don't even "hold" your open positions and you can trade them externally.

Whereas in Predyx there's nothing preventing the platform from rug pulling all the ongoing bets deposits.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 22h

I didn't know that about Polymarket. That's really interesting.

41 sats \ 0 replies \ @klk 22h

It has its own problems (based on a side chain of Ethereum). But it's a nice application of smart contracts. There's a contract with inmutable code that creates the yes and no pair for each bet when 1 USDC is deposited and also allows for redemption.

Since the code can't be changed, the funds are not in the hands of the platform owners at any time and it would take corrupting the Polygon network to do a rug pull.

Using USDC or Ethereum/Polygon is cringe. Hope we find a way to achieve something similar in Bitcoin or upper layers.

100 sats \ 2 replies \ @mega_dreamer 22h

Yes we want to - so far we haven't found a perfect bitcoin only solution for it.

We wanted to start with non-custodial modal using taproot assets - like issuing shares for the markets on taproot assets etc, but the UX of taproot assets is still very complex.

The other option is to use Polygon chain for state management/smart contracts along with wrapped invoice on LN, but not all the wallets support wrapped invoice. Plus using Polygon for smart contracts defeats the purpose of Bitcoin only Prediction Markets.

But eventually our goal is to make it non-custodial and decentralized in the end. We'll get there as there are more advancements on L2 Smarts Contracts.

101 sats \ 1 reply \ @klk 22h

Very cool! Happy to hear.

Prediction markets can be very valuable. There's a lot more to it than “gambling”.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 21h

Yes "gambling" and "Prediction markets" are like apple and oranges.

In the early days, just like how Bitcoin was seen or perceived as a drug money used only criminals, in the same way many smart people still see "Prediction markets" as gambling.

This happens to any new asset class.

A good question to ask is: If Prediction markets were gambling, how come Kalshi has been winning all the court injunction in Nevada and New Jersey?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Lazy_AMA 1 May outlawed

stackers have outlawed this. turn on wild west mode in your /settings to see outlawed content.

101 sats \ 1 reply \ @south_korea_ln OP 1 May

I think on other prediction market platforms, a user can simply set up new markets without having to request it through you. There might be good reasons to have some moderation of available markets, though. And it's always good to have some starting liquidity injected by you when setting it up. Not sure about this one.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 20h

Creating your own markets is coming in Phase 2 - starting June 1st. The only reason we are delaying it because we are not charging any fees yet.

In an LMSR/AMM (Automated Market Maker) you need subsidize a market with initial liquidity. If you don't charge fees, you're basically running the market in loss in a thinly traded markets. So far we've been running all out markets in loss.

That being, if we introduce market creation by users without any fees - there will be no incentive for the creators. No one would want to create the markets at loss.

101 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 1 May

I have been requesting market settlement appearing in your notifications and they are working on that.

The ability to see all the shares you own in a given market when you open that market would be handy as well at some point.

40 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 22h

Has been released, but not working perfectly on production. We'll need few more days to get it right.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @mega_dreamer 20h

Something to brag about - people are hooked to our Bitcoin markets on manifold.

On another humble note: We create the best Bitcoin markets on Manifold. Most of the markets you see on Predyx have been tested on manifold.

With that being said - we rank 54 in the world as market creator with an average rating of 4.95. We also have over 10k traders trade on the same markets.

101 sats \ 0 replies \ @south_korea_ln OP 20h

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market. Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more. Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.