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I've been thinking about how Predyx and other lightning based prediction markets might finance their operations, without undermining their core function of eliciting information from people.
The standard approach, of offering less-than-fair odds, guarantees long-run profitability (as long as you have enough customers), but it also creates a friction for participants that reduces the information value of their transactions. So, what are some less frictiony options for generating revenue?

Low hanging fruit

  • Close markets in real-time: Rather than prespecifying a closing time for some markets, like sports, it's better to close the market at the moment the outcome is realized. This both prevents post hoc transactions and enables late stage transactions. This should be easily automatable (I say as someone with no idea how to do that), with the right resolution criteria.
  • Round off shares: Shares and sats are discrete, so just make sure any necessary rounding is always in the house's favor.
  • Set initial probabilities well: Use whatever external information is available to open markets as near to the "right" value as possible.
  • Arbitrage: whenever markets are related to each other, make sure to resolve any illogical odds automatically
The point of these four is to avoid giving away free sats. None of them reduce productive use of the market. Keeping markets open up until the outcome is realized will probably greatly increase the number of transactions, since that's usually when the most information is coming in.

Third party support

  • Ads are the most obvious form of third party revenue
  • Sponsorships are the more interesting one: Allow sponsors to boost a market's visibility. This is similar to advertising, but it also capitalizes on the possibility of a market being of particular interest to someone.
  • Charge for market creation: users should be able to create new markets (this will also enhance trade quantity and site traffic), but it should be costly to create a market. If prediction markets really provide higher quality information, then it's reasonable to charge for it.
  • Arbitrage: Monitor external odds and whenever a gain can be locked in, place the bets (buy the shares) that guarantee a gain.

Bitcoin stuff

  • Routing fees: The volume of sats moving into, out of, and being held in these markets will require a fairly large lightning node. Following some helpful tips to optimize fee revenue will generate some sats for logistical stuff that had to be done anyway.
  • Treasury strategy: Take out loans against the revenue generated from all of the above and buy bitcoin: NGU -> repay with a fraction of the bitcoin, NGD -> repay with site revenue.

Bitcoin and Lightning Competitive Advantages

These aren't revenue ideas. They're just a couple of advantages lightning and bitcoin provide over fiat that should allow charging lower spreads than a traditional prediction market or sportsbook.
Traditional betting or prediction platforms are earning depreciating fiat, while a bitcoin based platform earns appreciating bitcoin. Traditional spreads must therefor be larger, in order to pull in the same real return. This also means the users' odds are worse on fiat platforms (again in real terms), even if the listed odds are the same, because their winnings will have depreciated by the time they receive them. Technically, this opens an opportunity to charge even higher spreads, but as mentioned in the intro, that would be bad for the information purposes of the market.
Lightning has much lower transactions costs than fiat transactions. So, even with tighter spreads, a lightning platform can net a better (nominal) return per transaction.

@mega_dreamer, I imagine most of those ideas were already on y'all's radar, and obviously you're already doing some, but I wanted to get them out of my head and onto digital paper. Hopefully, some of this will provide some useful food for thought.
406 sats \ 8 replies \ @grayruby 14h
Good ideas. Maybe liquidity bot just needs to be the best trader of all time. But some users might not like the idea of the site trading against them.
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ha ha, the liquidity_bot is just an interim patch until we're able to get more traders. And you're right, in long run no one will like the idea of the house trading against them.
@Undisciplined is already making me anxious by throwing out brilliant ideas, I feel that we're lagging behind. As discussed earlier, perhaps its time to finally and formally bring Undisciplined to Predyx. Not sure if you're still open to the idea - but lets get the conversation started, here's my official email-id sanjay@megasats.io
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Ha! Obvs, bring in the biggest customer
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Will do!
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I just realized that you're only saying this, because you want to keep inflating your teams' odds to ludicrous levels.
Your rampant homerism will be brought to an end.
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42 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 14h
My Leafs hate is costing me. They won again tonight. Somehow they keep getting outplayed and still win.
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The bigger they get, the harder they'll fall.
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40 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 14h
I also accidentally sold 80k Celtics shares instead of 40k. First sell said failed and so I clicked again but both went through. Oh well Celtics suck anyways. Knicks in 4.
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So, I intentionally didn't have liquidity bot just speculating based on external odds.
What I'm proposing is more like making other platforms into unwitting participants in the market.
This makes sense to me for more than just the easy money aspect. Those platforms are putting their money on the line, too, and ignoring that would just be ignoring available information about the resolution.
I tried not to include anything that would undermine the information value of these markets.
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Thanks for sharing this, very insightful. A few of the above ideas are being developed already and most of the above will implemented soon.
re: low hanging fruits
Close markets in real-time
Is being tested on daily h2h sports markets. Multi-options will have auto-close shortly perhaps in the phase 2. We will also implement auto-close for bitcoin markets in phase 2.
Round off shares:
Great advice - we will implement this
Set initial probabilities well
Its being developed, will be implemented soon.
Arbitrage (both self and external)
Great advise. Perhaps in the phase 2/3.
re: third party support
Ads
Not sure about sending our traffic to other website, but we'll give it thought.
Sponsorships
Yes, we've thinking about it. Hopefully the community can help us connect with other Bitcoin Business/apps
Charge for market creation
Coming in phase 2
Treasury strategy: Take out loans against the revenue generated from all of the above and buy bitcoin: NGU -> repay with a fraction of the bitcoin, NGD -> repay with site revenue.
Can you please help me understand this more. Thanks for all the valuable insight.
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The treasury strategy is something like what Saylor did with Microstrategy. He took out loans and purchased bitcoin with the funds.
The idea is that bitcoin appreciates at a faster rate than interest accrues. So, you can repay the loan with less than the amount of bitcoin that was purchased.
Lenders aren’t interested in bitcoin, though. They want to make sure they get paid back, so they’ll only loan as much as can be repaid with the business’ revenue.
The idea is that you can accumulate a Bitcoin stockpile this way. It only makes sense if you expect bitcoin to appreciate faster than the interest rates you can get on a loan.
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I never thought in that direction - sounds like a great strategy.
Thanks for explaining, I get it now.
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All great ideas!
Lightning has much lower transactions costs than fiat transactions.
I agree but I just wanna add here: Lightning has much lower transaction costs for cross border payments. Saying this in the context of India's UPI payment system which has 0 costs while transferring upto 200k INR/day.
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Good point. No doubt there are various subsidized payment systems that are cheaper, plus custodial ledgers are very cheap too.
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While other advantages of lightning as payment system definitely underscores any fiat payment systems, I want that people shouldn't just hate custodial lightning services because they are the only ones which can compete with UPI type fiat payment systems.
Recently I had an instance where I had to pay 1 million sats/100k INR to someone and the through Blink the fees was 0 but it's not 0 from. self custody wallets.
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For sure.
I didn't get into this level of detail, but the large channels a popular prediction market would need could really help bring down fees on large transactions like yours.
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I would suggest Predyx give an option of custodial wallet but then again, the problem, I guess they would need MTS license. So, I don't think @mega_dreamer would give it a look atm while Predyx is still in beta.
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You can use their custodial wallet.
yeah MTS is an issue. We're in the waitlist of Harsha Goli's Magnolia https://magnolia.financial to act as our custodial.
We tried talking to ZBD, but its seems they're busy serving other large customers.
39 sats \ 1 reply \ @optimism 5h
Treasury strategy: Take out loans against the revenue generated from all of the above and buy bitcoin: NGU -> repay with a fraction of the bitcoin, NGD -> repay with site revenue.
Can you elaborate the need for this, since the revenue is arguably in sats?
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The loan is only given because the business has sufficient revenue to pay it back.
The point is that the bitcoin purchased with the loan will be worth more than the amount that has to be repaid.
It’s the same reason Saylor takes loans against Strategy’s software revenue, rather than just buying bitcoin with that revenue.
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Wonderful rundown from the Predyx lord himself
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124 sats \ 5 replies \ @Jerrian 15h
This is a fantastic breakdown really gets at the core tension of prediction markets: extracting meaningful information vs. sustaining the platform. The low friction revenue ideas like real time market closures, rounding bias, and arbitrage optimization are elegant because they preserve user trust and signal integrity. I especially like the point about late stage trades markets get most informative when stakes are highest.
Sponsorships feel like a huge untapped lever let people fund questions they want answered, without corrupting outcomes. It’s a subtle but powerful way to align incentives. Also, charging for market creation could work similarly to Ordinals inscriptions: a small cost to deter spam while allowing serious actors to surface the questions that matter most.
The Lightning-native angles are smart too routing fees and treasury strategy turn infrastructure overhead into upside. If volume and node connectivity are optimized, those sat trickles could add up fast.
Overall, this is exactly the kind of thinking we need to make Lightning native prediction markets viable long-term without degrading their epistemic value. Curious what do you think the biggest risk to this model is: low liquidity, regulatory pressure, or something else?
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The biggest risk is probably some form of legacy platforms weaponizing the legal system against startup competitors.
I don’t necessarily think this is specific to these ideas, but just finding enough users will be a challenge, so staying solvent until becoming viable will be hard.
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You just replied and AI comment. #974383
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I thought that might be the case, but the questions were reasonable enough to answer.
I don't particularly care if AI asks questions or summarizes stuff more succinctly.
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👍👍
But the person who has been behind posting these AI replies, does he care to listen what you replies?
Anyways, just wanted to inform you in case you missed about it.
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I appreciate the heads up.
The answers are for a potential human reader, not whoever unleashed the AI bot (unless they actually are interested).
financing gambling LOL
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