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It seems inevitable to me too, but my debt worldview is anchored in the 2008 financial crisis and I see debt bubbles everywhere. There's such a strong macro/inflation tail wind now that the exogenous shock would have to be huge I imagine - like government confiscation, coinbase failing, our exploitable consensus being exploited, quantum, or some ASI creating inventing a 10000x better bitcoin. Something so big that Saylor and company feel comfortable dismissing them as "yeah, we can't stop catastrophic shit from happening."
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More and more I'm wondering about the parties in the btc ecosystem that are
a) incredibly rich in btc terms, and
b) astoundingly encumbered by debt
The most notable examples are btc shell (nee "treasury") companies (e.g., MSTR and these other nascent "big pile of bitcoins" instruments) but seems like miners meet that description too.
I'm trying to think through what the collapse of this giant tower of debt could look like, perhaps something like:
I'd like to understand in more detail how this might go, but to do that I'd have to understand more about these debt dynamics. Seems like somebody could produce their life's work on a really solid analysis of this topic.