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42 sats \ 21 replies \ @grayruby OP 2 Jun \ parent \ on: Is this Rock(ies) Bottom? Stacker_Sports
We have to determine if we are going with the all time record of 134 or the modern record of 121.
Multi-market?
Which futility record will the Rockes break?
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That's interesting but if they set the all time record both would need to resolve yes in that case.
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They've done that kind of market before.
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Yes, its technically known as Set Markets, where we can have multiple YES resolved (looks exactly like multi-markets).
Market: Which futility record will the Rockes break?
Please give me all the options.
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Have you written much about prediction markets like this before? I'd love to read a concise, well written prediction markets by example or prediction markets by type series. I run across stuff that's either super abstract or excessively in the weeds when I think I mostly want many, varied examples that are concrete and simple (and perhaps progressively complex).
Or maybe such a resource already exists that you could recommend?
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That's a nice thought, no I have not written anything much like that before and I don't think there are much resources like that out there.
I will start working on writing it. It will be a great educational resource for our users too.
Thanks for the great advice.
I remember thinking this Robin Hanson video was a pretty good intro, with some neat examples of different market types.
I forgot the "set market" term. I knew it was something specific. I'm sure @grayruby can get you an interesting set of historical futility marks.
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Yeah, its kinda too much to remember.
Quick refresher:
YES/NO -> Binary markets
Multi-option like Super Bowl - with single winner -> Range markets
Multi-option like What price will Bitcoin hit in 2025 - with multiple winner -> Set Markets.
How about just straightforward
Under 122 losses
122 loses or more (modern loss record)
135 loses or more (all time loss record)