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40 sats \ 18 replies \ @Undisciplined 2 Jun \ parent \ on: Is this Rock(ies) Bottom? Stacker_Sports
They've done that kind of market before.
Yes, its technically known as Set Markets, where we can have multiple YES resolved (looks exactly like multi-markets).
Market: Which futility record will the Rockes break?
Please give me all the options.
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Have you written much about prediction markets like this before? I'd love to read a concise, well written prediction markets by example or prediction markets by type series. I run across stuff that's either super abstract or excessively in the weeds when I think I mostly want many, varied examples that are concrete and simple (and perhaps progressively complex).
Or maybe such a resource already exists that you could recommend?
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That's a nice thought, no I have not written anything much like that before and I don't think there are much resources like that out there.
I will start working on writing it. It will be a great educational resource for our users too.
Thanks for the great advice.
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On another note. Are the UEFA champions league market sats getting paid out today?
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Will be resolved this morning.
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Ok thanks.
I remember thinking this Robin Hanson video was a pretty good intro, with some neat examples of different market types.
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Great, video. I'm sure you know Robin Hanson is the father of LMSR - and we use it as AMM on Predyx.
Learnt something new about Futarchy today. Thanks for sharing this great resource.
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I forgot the "set market" term. I knew it was something specific. I'm sure @grayruby can get you an interesting set of historical futility marks.
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Yeah, its kinda too much to remember.
Quick refresher:
YES/NO -> Binary markets
Multi-option like Super Bowl - with single winner -> Range markets
Multi-option like What price will Bitcoin hit in 2025 - with multiple winner -> Set Markets.
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How about just straightforward
Under 122 losses
122 loses or more (modern loss record)
135 loses or more (all time loss record)
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Under 122 losses 122 loses or more (modern loss record) 135 loses or more (all time loss record)
Does this look good:
Resolution Criteria: Which futility record will the Rockies break?
This market will resolve based on the final regular season record of the Colorado Rockies for the 2025 MLB season, as officially recorded on https://www.mlb.com/standings at the conclusion of the regular season.
The market will resolve as follows:
- Under 122 losses — if the Rockies finish the regular season with 121 losses or fewer.
- 122 losses or more (modern loss record) — if the Rockies finish with exactly 122 to 134 losses, inclusive.
- 135 losses or more (all-time loss record) — if the Rockies finish with 135 or more losses.
Notes:
- The current modern-era loss record is 120 losses (by the 1962 Mets); this market uses 122+ as the threshold for breaking a modern record.
- The all-time MLB loss record is 134 losses (by the 1899 Cleveland Spiders).
- Only regular season losses count. Postseason results are not considered.
Source of truth: MLB.com final regular season standings
Resolution timing: After the Rockies complete their final regular season game and the official standings are published.
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Looks great. Just one note. The current modern era loss record is 121 Chicago White Sox which was set last season.
That’s why I suggested 122.
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Great catch - today I have to battle with ChatGPT for every little thing. The last criteria was for range-market with only one winner. That's not what we wanted. Here is the revised one, let me know what you think - also can you give me the close date:
Resolution Criteria: Rockies Futility Records (Set Market)
This market will resolve based on the final regular season record of the Colorado Rockies for the 2025 MLB season, as officially recorded on https://www.mlb.com/standings at the conclusion of the regular season.
Each option will resolve independently:
- Rockies lose 122+ games (modern loss record) — Resolves Yes if the Rockies finish the 2025 regular season with 122 or more losses, breaking the modern-era loss record.
- Rockies lose 135+ games (all-time loss record) — Resolves Yes if the Rockies finish with 135 or more losses, breaking the all-time MLB record.
- Rockies lose fewer than 122 games — Resolves Yes if the Rockies finish with 121 or fewer losses.
Notes:
- The modern-era loss record is now 121 losses, set by the 2024 Chicago White Sox.
- The all-time MLB loss record is 134 losses, set by the 1899 Cleveland Spiders.
- Only regular season games count. Postseason results do not affect resolution.
Source of truth: MLB.com final regular season standings
Resolution timing: After the Rockies complete their final regular season game and the official standings are published.
Resolution timing: After the Rockies complete their final regular season game and the official standings are published.
Got it! We will create it by tomorrow. A lot of internal performance related changes went in today.
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