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Derivatives, or leverage, are common to all markets... much different thing than selling coin that doesn't exist... they just cause a shock when a big player blows up.
More stock options are traded notionally than the underlying stocks in a given day.
Gold is estimated to have derivatives 15-25x the underlying, Bitcoin is more volatile so probably much less.
So even at 10x that's 210M BTC
Bitcoin is mainstream, CNBC can't go 15 minutes without talking about it, it's ETF's embarrass the flows of all other ETF's, hundreds of millions of phones have near instant access... and several nation states-- including the most important one- have admins full of Bitcoiners and are irretractably incentivized to to keep the momentum going.
Bitcoin's job has always been to put a check on central banks and give people an option to save, everyone has that optionality now.
We have a proper unit of measure to put the central banks in check. Visa/PayPal are not the central bank.
Bitcoin has won. The game theory has won.
SoV is Act 1 in a 3 act Play.
Act 1 must come before Act 2, and it has.
MoE is Act 2
Act 2 simply broadens the aperture and is a reinforcement.
You want to know why more people don't have Bitcoin? They don't have money to save, at all. No wealth to protect, no units to account. The golden billion as is often referred too is really more like the golden 200M.
That's an economic failure, not a Bitcoin one.
But, Act 2 has begun, only because Act 1 is complete. Act 2 broadening the aperture is how you save the people not party to the golden 200M
Lightning enables people with no wealth to save the ability to EARN Bitcoin in a disinter-mediated way.
It's early Act 2, and the tooling sucks. The incentives to build bad tooling are stronger than the incentive to build good tooling (fake L2's and scam forks vs. self-hosted Lightning tools).
Act 2 does not have the benefit of Act 1's game theory, so there are fewer actors, which means we need more mechanical leverage (tooling).
I think that's the correct approach, there's not a true supply issue, and there's only so much pre-empting of local issues you can do and not crater prices.
Keeping prices flat is already a good first step, we've chopped for a few years now already so wages can start to catch up.
Net-negative migration is also unlocking supply.
Also jawboning and flat prices will shake out a lot of speculative demand to unlock more supply, combine with boomers downsizing, existing supply can transfer.
I also suspect things like Florida are doing to gain more traction elsewhere, maybe with a federal nudge... really big homestead exemptions that let property taxes punish investment units but not single-families. Good for Bitcoin if this happens, better to hold coin than pay property taxes that are likely to go up on houses you don't live in.
That would be increased unit supply and still create downward price pressure on units, doubling the density thereby doubling the units makes the land is less valuable if you need less of it to build a structure
Density is still a local thing generally since there's roads/parking/water/sewage/power to consider, can't imagine that working at scale.
Character is a factor too yea that would really crater land/home values, if my neighbors cattle pasture all of a sudden became a subdivision I would be incentivized to buy a bigger parcel of my own somewhere else. That'd lower the value of my current house further, both by unit, and the desirability of the land underneath it.
He seems to be focused on the mortgage scam, using Fanny/Freddy and Treasury policy to let buyers (exit liquidity) in.
Trump just said the quiet part out loud that supports my theory they try to keep them flat while raising wages
If he were to declare a housing emergency and build a bunch of houses it would evaporate the net worth of people who currently own them, that's in conflict with younger people to get housed.
Classic JCal, couldn't help but virtue signal against illicit use endemic to dollars more generally...
Tether is pretty cozy with the administration and on trajectory to be the off-shore dollar standard. He's probably a good indicator that criminality trope is what competitors and off-shore banks will cry about should Tether really start to eat their lunch.
SS unrelated.
Yea and for all the pearl clutches its really just a return to how things used to be
The SLR reform goes into effect April 1, conveniently when these bigger refund checks start hitting the wires. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20251125b.htm
That effectively makes it so banks don't have to "buy" treasuries, for all intents and purposes they're cash reserves to banks, which monetizes the debt without a big fed brrrr shocking the market.
What matters in credit is collateral, treasuries are the collateral that matters, but that also forces the government to over-spend... enter Bitcoin as collateral to re-collateralize the banking system.... no more need for fed discretion.
Bessent is the most likely next fed chair and markets aren't pricing this at all even though talking heads in-the-know forshadowed it months ago. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/19/steve-bannon-floats-idea-of-bessent-running-both-treasury-and-the-fed.html
He's Andrew Mellon 2.0
The Fed-Treasury merger is already well under way, its the most logical next step.
Undoubtedly, this jives with what I posted the other day: #1360945
She's admitting that the only thing that matters collateral (treasuries... therefore THE treasury), math > rules. Fed discretion is being replaced a mechanical link to the Treasury market and that closes the IORB arb subsidy that props up foreign banks.
I stand by what I said in previous threads, if this was an op it's big enough for the scene to be just a stage... like an arranged marriage to Erika and Charlie is still alive doing spook things behind the scenes
If it's not that big then it's your average patsie situation and the feds aren't going to spill then beans on foreign intel handlers
Timing is a bitch, but I'd say the essence is correct.
The M&A/Restructure happenings in 25 support the notion legacy media increasingly becoming a distressed asset. As a purely directional matter things have gotten closer to your end point, not away from it.
I predict more conspiracy theories will be proven true
Not going to take a lap on this one, was overly broad making it a lay-up... most of these below barley interest me as they were self-evident anyway (grok summary)
More notably to me is the recent auto-pen chatter supporting observations that Biden was a fake President, and the whole term was a continuity operation/sting operation/extension of the COVID psywar
Second part of that comment, which really interests me, was:
I've also remain fascinated by the apparent setup for a constitutional convention in the US: #783570
Quite likely one that includes FVEY countries becoming US states #783570
Hasn't happened yet, but my prediction was more that we get further along on that trajectory
Just last month I came across this panic post by PBS on the looming "threat":
Panic setting in as we're just a few states away, and election security being a top issue makes it increasingly likely.
The annexation of UK, Australia, and Canada has progressed
This goes part and parcel with with my ~econ post highlighting how the year has set up a new US-centric monetary regime: #1360945
If wages rise we can afford our own goods. That's real growth, not debasement to keep the world afloat.
Low value doesn't move the needle, steel, chips, aircraft engines etc do. We already have, or have already invested in those. Trump v1 got that ball rolling almost a decade ago now, obvious plan is obvious.
China manufacturers what we allow, with materials we allow, and buys our food. To the extent they can export requires our navies approval.
The push toward automation is yet another factor, per your earlier Japan reference, they've survived demographic collapse with automation.
US has the combination of all factors, may not be #1 in all, but in most, with weaknesses being solvable and remediation well under way.
I'm objectively looking at what's happened, happening, and extrapolating. If I thought investing in China or Brazil made any sense I would. If you want an offshore bet, look to Argentina, our newest colony.
Monero makes it a shitcoin wallet anyway, so it's on-brand.