refunded. Please try again, there were some issues that we fixed just now.

here's the Sabres market: https://beta.predyx.com/market/buffalo-sabres-make-the-conference-finals-1776737414?ref=PREDYXXA25DNJK

Thanks - will make the close date to: 20th of May, 11:59 PT

Thanks - what should be the end date/time?

Totally understand. Early-stage projects always carry risk. Appreciate you taking the time to review Predyx and sharing your feedback. And as always, thank you for supporting Predyx.

Thanks 🙏 humble plans.

Would you like to share your email so that I can get Derek started formally on this. No pressure. Feel free to take your time to decide.

Yes - same here, not a big fan either, but it's the most viable solution currently. This is how WalletOfSatoshi(WoS) got around to operate in US. The plan is to have both custodial and self-custodial version. Self-custodial version will become mandatory for the US users and optional for the rest of the world users just like WoS.

Another good thing about spark is that there is a possibility of holding YES/NO shares in self-custody on WoS. We are in talks with them, and they have given us a soft green light.

However if a better solution for self-custody emerges at a later stage, we will gladly migrate to it.

The main reason we want to also keep the custodial version is for the bot-economy, bots like OpenClaw will each make 1000 trades/second, the self-custodial version will just not be technologically viable for bot-economy. And of-course to serve users from under-privileged economy who have no skills or desire for self-custody.

Fair question. I understand Odell’s concern around custodial Lightning.

We’re also building a self-custodial version using Spark where YES/NO shares are tokenized and held alongside sats in self-custody.

The goal is simple: users should control both their sats and their market positions.

Sharing a quick demo below of the direction we’re heading.

Still finalizing the structure with our lawyers, but likely $10k–$25k for early community supporters.

Done.

Thank you - I will reach out shortly sometime this week.

Most likely via a SAFE. Early supporters from the Bitcoin community will get priority access once the structure is finalized. We’re working through the legal details now.

Happy to chat if you're interested.

Thanks!

What's the business model, trading fees?

Trading fees and market maker

What's the traction so far

229% user growth with 1.38 BTC trading volume in the last month. Over 2.2k total users.

Are you building a protocol or a company?

Initially priority a company or to grow user-base, and a protocol later when smart-contract becomes viable on Bitcoin or Lightning. We've been playing around with cashu and spark for tokenized assets (for YES/NO shares) but none offers fully self-custodial solution. However there's some hope with @joemphilips's conditional token on cashu: https://github.com/cashubtc/nuts/pull/337

What's the plan to combat liquidity fragmentation?

We believe CDA will solve a a lot of fragmented liquidity problem. We're building a hybrid CDA (can't divulge too much details - due to propriety algo), to be released within a month or two. You can experience the difference then, where smart money will automatically move to high demand markets with high volume.

Yes Prospera is great, at the same time it's also in Honduras. Not sure if you know the crime rates in Honduras. Having lived in Mexico myself, I've seen a lot of Honduras originated things first-hand.

Yes. we have few meetings lined up with top Bitcoin native VCs in the coming weeks. Any other VC referrals will be greatly appreciated.

As many of the community members/users had expressed interest in funding PREDYX earlier. Thus, I also wanted to give the same opportunity and priority to the bitcoin community and our early adopters to become a part of PREDYX.

Thank you so much for helping spread the word. Much respect 🙏

It's a natural progression of any Prediction Markets. The reason we're not sustainable now is due to the fact that we use AMM for market making.

The sustainability can only be achieved via CDA/CLOB limit order-books and trading fees.

However, launching CDA markets at the inception is recipe for disaster - as you'll only have unresponsive markets.

To bootstrap CDA markets, you'll need enough user traction that can only be achieved via AMM. It's like a chicken and an egg problem.

We expect to be sustainable when majority of our markets are driven solely by CDA.

Thanks for considering us.

We're looking to offload 3-10% of the equity with crowdsourcing where the equity would be granted prorated to contribution. So yes, we're offering equity.

It will be dollar denominated, just like any traditional Delaware Corp.

Regarding how much - I can send the details over email. What's the best email to reach you?

Thanks - I will share the details shortly sometime this week. What's the best email to reach you?

In short - if you choose to invest, you be a shareholder of PREDYX in the traditional way. We're incorporated in Delaware, DE, USA.