To develop a model that mirrors price, wouldn't we need an accurate model of demand, and therefore human behavior? I am often guilty of being too optimistic on the inevitable happening quickly, so S2F looked reasonable at first.

Isn't it harder to pick a spread than a straight winner? Probation sounds harsh in that system.

That was me, I think. Exactly as @ekzyis said, I thought the timer wouldn't reset, so tried to snipe the pot late on.