It's that time of year again. The behemoth that is the NFL is getting rolling. Training camps begin this week across the league. So let's make it a free for all but NFL centric.
Shill me what you are looking forward to this NFL season (could be a team, an exciting rookie, a qb battle... whatever floats your boat).
Sats for all.
Cheers, GR
My Survivor Pool. We should start one here with sats.
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You know, we could. The way the pool works is everyone pays the ante before week 1. Then each week you pick a winner from all the matchups. Straight. No point spread. You can only pick each team once during the season. If you lose, you're on probation. That week you pick with the spread. I think probation lasts 3 weeks. If you lose again, you're out.
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Isn't it harder to pick a spread than a straight winner? Probation sounds harsh in that system.
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Yes it is. That's the point. You're punished for losing but you still have a chance of recovering.
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I asked a friend to send me all the rules. We don't need to follow this survivor format. I know the guy has been running it for 30 years so he probably has the math and incentives figured out. I misspoke. Probation is even tougher. 6 weeks! We probably shouldn't even do it unless there's enough interest to make it fun.
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Yes, let's do it
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The only issue is lightning escrow. Who holds the sats? We need some LN smarties to help us out. I think there was a recent post about LN and escrow/prediction markets? Is anyone knowledgeable about that stuff? I'm not.
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@ekzyis is working on his prediction market site so we can bet on the 100k bitcoin price date.
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the sports betting part is what @kr mentioned in a previous post: #212283
I'll try to come up with a very simple solution first (only for the 100k bitcoin price bet) and then see how I can evolve the website for more uses cases.
It won't be a real prediction market for a long time probably. More just a simple betting site to get something going.
Also, don't get your hopes up high for anything sophisticated, lol. For example, I intend to just use a simple custodial model for escrow. I'll mention something like this in the FAQ:
Q: Why should I trust you? A: You shouldn't. Only deposit what you can afford to lose.
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Excellent! I say we just trust @ekzyis as our escrow agent.
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If not we will work something out.
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Why not use super test net bitpac?
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I think https://bitpac.org/ won't work with small payments like 100 sats since it's onchain only. Is that correct @super_testnet?
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It's off the field, but I'm looking forward to Gruden's lawsuit against the league making it to discovery. I understand there's quite a treasure trove in those 600,000 Washington Football Team emails.
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You just gave me something new to look forward to lol
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Although understandable, it's sad what's going on with running back contracts. They have such a limited shelf life. I'm happy my boy CMC got paid though before the league came to this realization.
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It's gross. I get it business is business... But let's take dalvin cook as an example. 4 straight probowls. 4 straight 1000yrd season. 27 (I think maybe 28) And he can't get a contract because no one wants to pay 10mil.
But from a business point of view, why pay 10mil for one assets worth of A/A+ production when you only need B+ production which you can get from a guy you paid like 4mil and some guys on a rookie deal at what? 100k? Business no brainer... Our entire RB room currently costs maybe 6 mil? (Guessing on numbers) why pay 1 guy 10?
But! These are real people with real familys and real lives. Not just some asset or resource to be bled dry. I hope RBs get valued as people someday.
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Yeah they need some sort of way to get a new contract for these guys before they get worn down. I can't imagine the wear these guys have to deal with when they're 40+. Imagine not being able to hike or exercise because of the arthritis from your teens and 20s... I've read some active NFL player knee xrays at work and they weren't pretty.
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If a player is considered a vet on their 2nd season perhaps rookie contracts should only be fore rookies? New contract for players no longer considered rookie's. It would stop teams seeing that they could get a younger player on a cheap deal for 4-5 years depending on 5th year option and have to pay people what they're worth early. With less cheap deals it does however mean that teams will have to stop paying giant money to some players to be able to afford to field a team. Because currently contracts are getting out of control. The next paid just resets the market regardless of if they're better than the other guy or not. So I kinda feel that rookie deals should be limited to rookie seasons. After that the players considered a veteran and you pay them like one I guess.
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CMC is more than a running back though. Only a couple guys as versatile as him. But I agree these guys are getting killed out there and are lucky to have 3 or 4 solid years. I wonder if more teams will employ 49ers style back usage where they have a skill back that also plays in short passing game and then a couple guys they use as more power backs.
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What's crazy is I've been following him since Stanford and Bryce Love our RB behind him a year was actually even more explosive. He was having his own heisman run after CMC left but he stayed an extra year to get his degree (wanted to be a pediatrician) and was never the same after his knee injury...
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Couldn't be more excited that Zach Wilson's not starting...I am honestly excited for what I hope is the Rodgers FU tour
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Might be the best division in football now. Should be a great battle for the playoffs.
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Chiefs going 10-7 and missing the playoffs
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Mahomes must be missing some games for this to happen. I would love to see the chiefs miss playoffs but don't see it happening unless mahomes goes down for a couple months.
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You underestimate TURBO HERBO
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Losing another fantasy season /s
Idk, nothing specific I guess? Just want to have fun watching football
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Will you be joining the SN survivor pool? @siggy47 is in (his idea) and I am in thus far.
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Sounds like fun, count me in!
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Awesome and then there were 3. @siggy47
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Here are the rules from the pool I have been in for 5 or 6 years:
  1. You pick a team to win. Spread does not matter. Just win.
  2. If your team wins, you pick again the following week but you cannot pick the same team twice ever.
  3. If your team loses, you have a chance to get back in. You have to pick a winner somewhat by the spread; the favorite has to cover spread, the underdog has to win outright. If you are successful 6 weeks in a row, you are back in and picking like you did at the start. But you can never pick the same team twice. Also, you can only win the BIG pot if the only remaining people all picked after getting the second chance.
Again, probation is even harsher, but the point is that lots of guys are usually still in it in week 12 or 13 having never even needed the benefit of probation. I have never gotten past the first week on probation once I lose!
We can make our own rules and lighten up on probation. The pool I'm describing has 600 participants with a $50 ante. Ours will be smaller (probably tiny). Every year the 2 or 3 last survivors usually agree to split the pot.
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How about a rebuy like in a poker tournament? Let's say entry to pool is 10,000sats. Should we give folks one chance to buy back in after losing? Up to a certain week of course (we don't want people to game the system and be buying back in with 2 players left in week 16 or something). Maybe week 12? After week 12 you are just out.
Or maybe it's like monopoly you can pay to get out of jail (rebuy) or you can get out by hitting 3 weeks in a row vs spread.
Thoughts?
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A few years back the Eagles lost game 1 as a heavy favorite. 40% of the pool lost, so everyone agreed to a buy back in as you suggest. I'm up for anything. Maybe we'll screw things up year one, but we can make it better yearly.
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Years ago my buddies and I would place a few small bets on Sunday's before watching the 1 and 4 oclock games together. I always hated betting the first few weeks of the season. There were always ridiculous upsets. 49ers lost to the Bears in week 1 last year.
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It was Jordan Addison... Until we drafted him and he came across terribly with "let's get paid" and then proceeds to do 140 in a 55. I know they're young but they're not kids anymore, they're young adults and with the spotlight they have I expect them to behave like adults. So yeah rant over. SKOL.
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Isn't the first, won't be the last. Youth, fame and money are a dangerous cocktail. You need to mature real fast to handle it.
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