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Am I crazy that I don't see how UBI solves anything because it will create inflation that negates the value of the UBI? This seems obvious to me maybe I'm missing something. You can't just give people money, it is known.
This is very true for this generation of AI also. You may no longer need to be a good or even competent developer in a couple years, as fast as things are going.
There's thousands of transactions nearly every block.
That's true. I guess what I meant is that despite this, there is no demand driving fees above nearly rock bottom.
Mining cannot be "profitable" over a long time horizon, it's not meant to be. Market dynamics mean profit will always be arbitraged out. Break-even mining, waste-heat generation (space heaters etc), ideological mining, altruism, or as a institutional security COST are keys to decentralization.
These are exactly the kinds of ideas I was looking for with my post Thank you! I was trying to think of scenarios where mining is not profitable.
For-profit mining is an anomalous condition created not only by the subsidy, but real world transient activity like arbitrage on stranded energy (nat gas wells) and reduced data center footprints for legacy compute (AI is finally squeezing this out), the treasury company fad (publicly traded miners), and demand by institutions for provenance coins (new coin base coins without a chainalysis history that institutional lawyers see as a liability)
Interesting idea that it was never meant to be profitable. I mean in most industries, profit gets arbitraged down, but not out completely because otherwise people would stop. What makes mining materially different in this sense? Exactly those things such as altruistic mining, waste-heat, etc?
Right, that's why I don't think hardforking to tail inflation is feasible. Have you thought about how this hypothetical future might work in light of that as a non-starter?
Great write-up thanks!
Do you know if people still follow the stolen coins around with blockchain analysis? The thief/thieves have managed to stay under the radar all this time?
I thought the same thing about CRISPR. Remember allll the CRISPR hype like 15 years ago? It was gonna be so revolutionary etc etc. As far as I know they've used it for like one thing.
Hey I'm with you. I think it's just an honest take though that this is going to be an obstacle to large scale payment adoption in the US. Most people are going to be practical and not ideological about BTC.
At least in the US, payments will always be a problem until there is a de minimis cap gains tax exemption.
Would rather have a block of ads up front than randomly placed throughout the podcast
Yes I think he also means risks of people losing their coins from fucking up their self-custody which happens ALLL the time.
I got sick as hell in Floripa once. Don't drink the water! lol