CheezeGrater

bitcoin

This is the announcement that I announced [here](https://stacker.news/items/336740):

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## **I finally got the MVP done for a [prediction market on lightning](https://delphi.market/).**


_If you don't know what a prediction market is, watch [this video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xA27x7GRMZQ)._

---

## But first and foremost: **To prevent loss of funds, the market is running on [mutinynet](https://blog.mutinywallet.com/mutinynet/) and not mainnet until I have enough confidence in the code for mainnet. This means the sats have no value and you need to use the [mutiny faucet](https://faucet.mutinywallet.com/) to pay invoices and the [mutiny wallet (signet)](https://signet-app.mutinywallet.com/) to test withdrawals as mentioned in [/about](https://delphi.market/#/about).**

**Thanks to @benthecarman @TonyGiorgio and Paul (I don't know his nym on here, lol) for mutinynet and the provided tools! Less stuff I had to worry about on my own.**

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## **Features**

1. **create your own binary markets**

On the main page, you can immediately see a button to create a new market. You'll need to login with lightning though. You can use any LNURL-auth capable wallet for that. LNURL-auth is independent from which network is used for transactions :)

For now, you can only create binary markets. This means that you can only bet on events which outcome is either `YES` or `NO`:

_market creation form:_
![delphi.market_(iPhone SE) (1).png](https://m.stacker.news/6616)

Be aware that you can currently not change the description or delete the market after creation. In the future, I might allow edits for a few minutes after creation.

2. **trading of YES and NO shares**

Basically the heart of the market. As a market would be useless without trading, you can obviously create BUY and SELL orders for YES and NO shares. **Every order must be matched with an order of a different market participant.**

For example, if you want to buy 2 YES shares at a price of 70 sats per share or short: `BUY 2 YES @ 70 sats`, your order must match a `BUY 2 NO @ 30 sats` order.

_buy order form:_
![delphi.market_(iPhone SE) (3).png](https://m.stacker.news/6619)

The interface might still be overwhelming even though I iterated on it several times already.

The input labeled with `how much?` specifies how many sats you want to bet. With `how sure?` you specify the price per share since the share prices in a prediction market reflect what the market currently thinks how likely an outcome is (at least in theory).

3. **interactive order book**

To match existing orders easily, you can simply click on `PENDING` and a context menu will show - assuming it's not your own order, else it will show a button to cancel your order:

_matching existing orders using the interactive order book:_
![delphi.market_(iPhone SE) (4).png](https://m.stacker.news/6620)

On click on `match`, you'll get redirected back to the order form but with prefilled values. If you submit this order, this will match the other order after payment. For example, if you click on `match` in the screenshot, you would get redirected to this order form with `BUY 2 YES @ 20 sats` prefilled:

![delphi.market_(iPhone SE) (5).png](https://m.stacker.news/6621)

4. **basic market stats**

On the `stats` page, you can see the total sats locked in the market (volume) and how many are on which side. `YES` 75% means that 75% of all sats were put into YES share which means that the market thinks that the chance that YES will win is 75%. However, tbh, I am not entirely sure if the chart works, lol

_stats page:_
![delphi.market_(iPhone SE) (6).png](https://m.stacker.news/6622)

5. **withdrawal**

You can withdraw any sats you received via payout or canceling an order (you'll get a refund for any invoice you paid for the order) in your wallet:

_wallet page:_
![delphi.market_(iPhone SE) (8).png](https://m.stacker.news/6624)


_withdrawal via bolt11 payment request:_
![delphi.market_(iPhone SE) (9).png](https://m.stacker.news/6625)

6. **list of all invoices**

Not much to say here. Just a list of all your invoices with their status so you can pay them later or keep track of what you've done:

![delphi.market_(iPhone SE) (10).png](https://m.stacker.news/6626)

7. **list of all orders**

Similar to the invoice list. You can also cancel your orders from this list (and not only from within a market order book) by clicking on `PENDING` to show the context menu. 

![delphi.market_(iPhone SE) (11).png](https://m.stacker.news/6627)

8. **market settlement**

If you created a market, you can decide the outcome of the market via a hidden `settings` page:

![delphi.market_(iPhone SE) (12).png](https://m.stacker.news/6628)

This is obviously not ideal and unlike what I initially mentioned: that the market creator (or me, as the site operator) would only be used as a fallback if the trading parties don't find consensus on the outcome. However, this idea didn't make it into the MVP.

If anyone even remembers, I also mentioned that I would be using HODL invoices to wait with settling the invoices until a counter party was found. If no counter party was found, their sats would get returned for free - no network fees. That also didn't make it into the MVP and I am no longer sure that's even something users would want since it trades UX for a potentially insignificant risk of having to pay the lightning network again for a withdrawal if you found no counter party.

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## **Planned**

- actually show end date that was picked during market creation to user
- PWA with push notifications
- fix chart (?)
- code cleanup / refactor (that's probably always a thing, lol)
- tests, tests, tests
- other stuff that I forgot now
- ...
- mainnet

---

That's it for now. I want to go to sleep and writing all of this took some time that I was worried [about my account deletion deadline](https://stacker.news/items/336740), lol 

Now go, find all the bugs that I have hidden for you! Feel free to create new markets. I have created some orders for the existing markets so you can use them to immediately find some matches :)

Hopefully I'll wake up to some interesting prediction markets - or funny :)

---

_some somewhat random pings: @Natalia @grayruby @Undisciplined @nemo @siggy47 @orthwyrm @elvismercury @carlosfandango_ 

Lightning Prediction Market MVP - delphi.market

Uruguay - The New Land Of The Free? 🇺🇾

davidw

The Perils of Premature Protocol Ossification

nerd2ninja

I need to spend a little less time reading about human action and elliptic curves

What’s your favorite fiction book?

rustaceanrob

What do you NOT waste time with anymore?

birdeye21

> How do you try to find a balance of the two?

One thing I've done in the past is begin reading fiction when I find I've stopped reading nonfiction. It tends to reenergize me to read more nonfiction. 

Most people enforce balance with inelastic rules. When Bezos would say "work-life harmony" I think that's what he was getting at. Harmony is balance but a dynamic kind of balance.

> What are you not wasting your time with anymore?

Trying to change other people's minds. 

Earnest arguing is an exhausting expression of compassion. When I find myself arguing these days, it's when:

1. I think the person's point of view/behavior is hurting them
2. The person is worthy of compassion

k00b

deleted by author

Natalia

Hi Bitcoiners,

Bitcoin and the global south is a big deal. 

However it's seldom reported on from the target countries. 

I spent two months of early 2022 in Senegal, West Africa meeting and reporting on Bitcoin advancements there. 

I returned in December, camera in hand, to attend the country's first bitcoin-only conference. 

I turned the content into a mini-documentary. The link’s just below. 

You’ll notice that I channeled my inner Alex Gladstein to highlight just how shitty the CFA is. 

Please like, share tweet out etc! I really wanna spread the word. 

P.s - massive love to the Bitcoin_senegal community. They’re awesome people, particularly founder Nourou!

Here it is on (Bit)Cointelegraph:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WL3dHoVX6Q

Love and sats,

Joe Nakamoto (né Hall) 

Bitcoin in Senegal, West Africa: video

JoeNakamoto

Bitcoin's full potential valuation

lpop4254