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Wow, I read as much as I could:
- Shockingly boring with no substance
- FULL of meaningless buzz-words
- AI could write a better "whitepaper" than this drivel
CBDCs vs bitcoin is equivalent to prison cigarettes vs USD.
They are so different fundamentally that one doesn't really threaten the other. Once you get out of prison, you quickly figure out that USD works better.
Once you wake up from the matrix, you quickly figure out that bitcoin is better.
CBDC is going to have nearly zero effect on anything at all, since government money is essentially a CBDC already.
central banking anyone? LOL
Thomas Jefferson was the GOAT, (deep thinker, freedom maximalist)
but followed by Washington a close second.
Give the last word to Washington’s great adversary, King George III. The king asked his American painter, Benjamin West, what Washington would do after winning independence. West replied, “They say he will return to his farm.”
“If he does that,” the incredulous monarch said, “he will be the greatest man in the world.”
You just might be right:
If you don't understand bitcoin, you won't buy Strategy's financial products.
If you do understand bitcoin, you will just buy bitcoin.
Maybe...but STRC is $3 billion and growing.
I don't think banks, insurance, and tradfi in general will understand bitcoin any time soon, when only .001% of the population does. Even if they did, they can't meet short term fiat liabilities with bitcoin as a treasury asset. Yes they need some bitcoin, but they would need a small percentage for growth, and a large percentage of more stable assets to meet shorter term obligations. That is, in today's fiat world, not in a bitcoin future.
A very good article, thank you. You had some good insights and it was a good read.
You do make the point that Strategy is bulletproof, but in some ways it fells a bit too focused on "treasury companies" -- a bit like normies conflate "crypto" and bitcoin.
Your failure modes:
"In the absence of that — say, nobody buys the treasury company issuances, and financial capital flows somewhere else; money printing stops; interest rates on (safer?) government securities shoot up, etc — I don’t see how Strategy’s mNAV doesn’t just collapse back down to 1."
.....>I assume you mean this as a temporary scenario, and not a permanent state? In what (fiat) universe would money printing stop, and government bond rates go up?
"If fund managers or treasury departments or family offices routinely stack bitcoin instead of various Strategy products (or securities of Strategy copy-cats, as the case may be in different parts of the world), the primary reason for bitcoin treasury companies go away."
.....>Yes, this will happen eventually. Is it going to happen in 5 or 10 years?? Likely not. It might happen in 20 years, or 50. The gold standard ended in 1913. People thought fiat would die in 1971 -- I think Strategy has many decades to run a Bitcoin/Fiat carry trade.
I was referring to the author of the substack...
Haven't read anything you've posted, I will, though.
Can you link something here?
Another bitcoiner with a fundamental misunderstanding of Strategy.
"With the passage of the GENIUS Act and the likely approval of the CLARITY Act, institutional investors and large funds will soon have direct, regulated access to Bitcoin. When that happens, the need to access Bitcoin through a leveraged equity proxy like $MSTR diminishes significantly."
Strategy's product is not $MSTR, its:
STRC
STRE
STRF
STRD
STRK
Insurance companies, pensions, banks, and other institutions, unless they want to be 200% overcollateralized, can't hold bitcoin as a base asset, when they could have to pay billions for a hurricane or wildfire disaster in a single year (in the case of insurance, for instance). What if bitcoin is down 70%?
Banks are starting to figure it out, are buying STRC, raking in 10%, and offering their customers 4% "high yield" savings and CDs.
Not everyone can use the volatility of bitcoin. Strategy strips the volatility, gives it to the shareholders, and sells a product that much of the world is starving for.
If you don't understand Strategy, that's perfectly fine: you SHOULD hold most of your wealth in bitcoin only. But what if you have enough bitcoin, and want to invest, instead of save?? Strategy is one of the only real investments that has a chance of growing in bitcoin terms.
I understand the Saylor hate: his rhetoric changed from bitcoin maxi, to fiat maxi, when things started getting big. In my opinion, his understanding of bitcoin did not suddenly disappear, and he is saying what he needs to, in order to get what he wants.
Strategy's "business" didn't really start until the prefs, which are only a few months old, (STRC, at $2 billion, was the largest IPO in 2025)
Great post anon
Orange pilling fellow pilots is much easier for me than my own family.
I could speculate that it’s how our brains work, we are more open to learning/curious (learn something new all the time while flying, no matter how much time you have in type.)
I haven’t met any other pilot that is 100% btc yet, but I did meet one with a substantial amount, and a few guys I’ve orange pilled bought a few btc each.
Store of value and medium of exchange ARE THE SAME THING.
“Store of value” is simply an exchange of value from your present self to your future self.
As fiat continues to collapse, do you think bitcoin gets no adoption? When the USD collapse accelerates, people just give up and civilization ends? I think not.
once you've built meaningful wealth, investing is fun, like a game - let bitcoin be your savings yes, but investing the wealth you won't need is fulfilling for some people
it varies by individual and country, what you consider significant enough to invest anything...I would say that is ~ 200 BTC in a wealthy western nation, in 2025, for a family man...your number is probably different, and of course decreases with time
Having any home equity is actually risky: don't ever pay off your house (in fact, I keep as little equity in my home as possible)
If you are under-insured: you lose (California wildfire victims)
If you get divorced
If you get sued
If the government wants your property
If you lose your job and can't make the mortgage payments (I know this is counter intuitive, but during the GFC, homeowners with substantial home equity were the first to be foreclosed on, while those with almost no equity got longer grace periods, and re-negotiated lower payments and rates more easily, since the bank stood to lose much more by foreclosing on properties in which the homeowner had little equity.)
The solution? Get that equity out: get a HELOC or second mortgage - now you have de-risked your house. Now, it is the banks problem.
Secure that equity in bitcoin -
divorce, imminent domain, lawsuit....just laugh in their faces
First, this reads like AI slop.
Second, I had never heard of Yakes until I saw a screenshot of his tweet about the Saylor and Danny interview, which he had the most midcurve opinion...
Even though I agree with the (AI's) conclusion on quantum, my credibility meter on Yakes was already low.