Hellen17

econ

The next Bitcoin halving, scheduled for April 16, 2024, represents a fundamental event for the entire cryptocurrency. This halving of the mining reward, which occurs every 210,00 blocks (approximately every 4 years) has historically had a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin.

Behavior of Long-Term Holders (LTH)

To better understand the possible implications of the halving, it is essential to analyze the behavior of Long-Term Holders (LTH), i.e. investors who have held Bitcoin for over 155 days.

According to data from Glassnode, an on-chain analytics platform, LTHs are showing strong accumulation of Bitcoin.

Key Indication:

- LTH Supply Shock Ratio: this indicator measures the portion of Bitcoin held by LTHs compared to the total supply. Its current value, equal to 78.7%, is the highest ever recorded since its creation in 2014.

- LTH SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio): this indicator measures whether LTHs are selling at a profit or at a loss. a value above 1 indicates that LTHs are selling at a profit, while a value below 1 indicates that they are selling at a loss. The current value of 1.14 suggests that most LTHs are trading at a profit, strengthening the case for positive sentiment.

- LTH accumulation level: the analysis of the accumulation rate of Bitcoin by LTH highlights a clear growth in recent months.

Accumulation by LTHs is a bullish sign for the price of Bitcoin. These investors, being convinced of the long-term value of Bitcoin, tend not to sell their assets even during periods of volatility.

Bottom line, as Bitcoin approaches its fourth halving, current metrics do not signal imminent corrections, but do suggest a possible distribution phase. Historically, each halving has significantly affected the value of BTC, although correlation IS NOT GUARANTEED. The post-halving trend can offer opportunities for both long-term and short-term investors, with effects emerging over the long term.

Bitcoin Halving: Behavior of Long-Term Holders according to Glassnode

libertarian

"Bitcoin is the first example of a new form of life. It lives and breathes on the internet. It lives because it can pay people to keep it alive." - Ralph Merkle, Pioneer of Cryptography
Bitcoin is truly revolutionary, not just as a currency but as a new form of digital life that sustains itself. Unlike traditional fiat money, Bitcoin doesn't require a central authority to manage its supply. Instead, it's maintained by a decentralized network of "miners" who are incentivized to keep the system running through block rewards.
This is a profound insight from one of the pioneers of cryptography. Bitcoin, in a sense, has a life of its own - it "lives and breathes" on the internet, kept alive by the economic incentives that drive its network participants.
Speaking of incentives, a recent article took issue with the idea that regular people are "inflation idiots" for being concerned about rising prices. The author, Jeffrey Tucker, argues that this dismissive attitude toward the public's economic perceptions is misguided.
The truth is, people are not blind to the realities of inflation. They experience it firsthand in their daily lives - at the grocery store, the gas pump, and in their monthly bills. While economic experts may have more sophisticated models and analysis, the public's intuitive understanding of price increases is valid and deserves to be taken seriously.
As Bitcoin users, we understand the importance of sound money and the dangers of inflation. That's why we're dedicated to spreading awareness and adoption of this revolutionary technology. By supporting the Bitcoin network, we're not just protecting our own financial well-being - we're helping to build a more stable, equitable monetary system for everyone.

The genius of Bitcoin and why you are not an “Inflation Idiot”

Euro - dollar parity is at 1.0833 level. Here I will be following the 1.0750 - 1.0850 band range for this week. On Thursday this week, the European euro zone will decide on the euro interest rate. Whether or not there will be an interest rate cut here? I will continue to follow this side closely. But figures below 1.08 continue to offer buying opportunities. Especially since I continue to expect 1.12 for this year, I will continue to see figures below 1.08 as a buying opportunity. That's why I can say that there are good buying opportunities on the euro side this week.

An ounce of gold is at the level of 2334 dollars. The $2350 resistance for this week is tested today. But I am giving you serious warnings on the ounce side. Be careful. Hard sales of $100 - $150 may occur. I stay away by the ounce. It is better to stay away from gold and silver. There may be sharp declines in gold prices, be careful, I had warnings. These warnings are still valid. Again, when we look at the sales of 100 - 150 dollars, there may be a decrease corresponding to 2200 dollars, pay attention to the ounce side. Ounce of gold should be followed today and tomorrow this week.

The ounce price of silver is at $27.66. I won't buy silver this week either. I also expect declines in silver, up to the $2580 level. I expect a decrease of approximately $2 in the ounce price of silver. Therefore, I wait until Monday to buy silver at parity. Therefore, a retreat on the silver side will be inevitable.

Inflation data will be announced in America on Wednesday. This data will be an excuse for the decline of ounces of gold, ounces of silver and assets against the dollar. That's why we need to be ready for declines.

Currently, oil prices started the week with a 1.5% decrease. It is at 89.7 level. We have an oil price that does not want to move too far from the 90 dollar level. I will follow the $88 - $92 range here. But he rose very quickly and can try 86 again from here.

Bitcoin is at $72275. I expect a pullback on this side, up to the $66000 - $66500 level. So I expect a drop around $3000. On the Bitcoin side, the range of 65000 - 70000 dollars remains valid here. I would like to express that Bitcoin investors should maintain their downward expectations for those who invest in this direction this week.

Sterling - dollar parity is currently at 1.2628. Here too, I expect a pullback to the 1.25 level. Those who hold dollars will have a good opportunity to buy euros and sterling this week. Let's summarize briefly. Inflation data will be announced in America on Wednesday this week. The interest rate decision of the euro zone will be announced in Europe on Thursday. Gold and silver prices started the week with an increase, but I expect a sharp sale of $ 100 - 150 per ounce in these increases, and therefore there should be no rush on the silver side of the gold side. I expect a decline in euro-dollar parity and sterling-dollar parity. The strong stance in the dollar index continues again. I expect a decline on the Bitcoin side this week. A geopolitical tension may escalate, perhaps from Iran, perhaps from Russia.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.