VisionofBitcoin

bitcoin

Orange buys the bitcoin.com.br domain.

lightning

Lightning Network is now available in beta on cakewallet

Christianity

We are witnessing an unprecedented Christian revival.

![](https://m.stacker.news/130870)

On Ash Wednesday, churches in the US and France were packed.

Stacker_Stocks

At least two funds reported increased exposure via BlackRock ETFs!

- Mubadala Investment Company: +$12 million in equities
- Al Warda Investment: +$8 million in equities

Together, they held a position of approximately $1 billion at the end of 2025.

UAE sovereign wealth funds have once again increased their exposure to Bitcoin.

The paper "Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets" analyzes the effectiveness of Kalshi's forecasting markets as tools for measuring macroeconomic expectations in real time.

It highlights:

- Unlike surveys, which can quickly become outdated, these markets offer high-frequency data and continuous updates.

- The authors demonstrate that Kalshi's forecasts are as accurate as those of professional analysts (such as the Bloomberg consensus) and, in some cases (such as the main CPI), show a statistically significant improvement.

- The solution responds quickly to macroeconomic developments and monetary policy signals that the data misses.

BASICALLY, they are saying that KALSHI provides BETTER DATA than the FED HAS available!!!

![](https://m.stacker.news/130839)

The Fed just published a paper on Kalshi.

Well, here's a curious tidbit: after his winning trade on Polymarket, he withdrew the entire amount directly to a wallet. Here's his profile:  https://t.co/2UPF6335Eg

Account created in December, only 4 predictions made, 100% accuracy, and now the account is empty.

A few days later, someone also sent him a $1 gift on Polymarket using the "Send Tip" feature.

And obviously, he withdrew the money too. After all, every penny counts!


![](https://m.stacker.news/130386)

Case of the insider who profited from Maduro's capture

One of the few confirmed state-owned miners on the planet, the government of Bhutan, has been reducing its BTC reserves every week since November.

Today, they sold another $6.77 million.

In total, Bhutan still holds $374 million in BTC.

Will they make the same mistake as Germany?

![](https://m.stacker.news/130184)

Bhutan's government selling Bitcoin

This guy said he only had 120 hours left to live and would stream until the end. He launched a token that reached a value of half a million dollars and earned $14,000 in fees.

Then he sold all the coins he had, ended the stream, and it went to zero.

Crypto is not for amateurs.

![](https://m.stacker.news/129928)

![](https://m.stacker.news/129929)

He faked having 120 hours to live, launched a token, then vanished.

1A1zP1eP5QGefi2DMPTfTL5SLmv7DivfNa

Why would someone make such a donation?

The first address to receive BTC balances has the 50 BTC (unspendable from the first mined block) and already has a balance of 107 BTC (57 BTC from subsequent transfers).

![](https://m.stacker.news/129516)

![](https://m.stacker.news/129517)

![](https://m.stacker.news/129518)

Someone sent 2.56 BTC to Satoshi at the first address used in BTC.

- Bitcoin (₿): 1,085 days (~2.9 years).

- Gold (🏆): 4,389 days (~12 years until a definitive breakout).

- S&P 500 (🇺🇸): 4,640 days (~12.7 years — the trauma of the dot-com bubble).

- Silver (🥈): 5,271 days (~14.4 years)

![](https://m.stacker.news/128734)

Days needed for assets to surpass their ATHs

5 minutes that are worth INFINITELY your time!

Binance's first $BTC purchase transaction has been executed and sent to the "SAFU Fund".

1350 BTC were purchased for approximately $100 million.

The company aims to acquire $1 billion within 30 days of the official announcement.

![](https://m.stacker.news/128559)

Binance starts bitcoin purchase

A gold trading platform in China froze $19 billion of clients' money.

The company advertised guaranteed returns of 20%.

Now thousands of clients want their money back, and the owner claims to have been "deceived."

![](https://m.stacker.news/128432)

The gold scam: $19 billion frozen in China.

The probability of what is happening is practically zero.

Three 6-sigma events occurred in one week.

– Debt securities
– Silver
– Gold

We are experiencing a statistical impossibility.

Let me explain:

Last Tuesday, the 30-year Japanese debt registered what we call a “6-sigma” session.

Two days ago, silver did even better: it was at 5-sigma on the upside, then reached 6-sigma on the downside. IN A SINGLE SESSION.

And gold now? It rose 23% in less than a month. We are getting very close to a 6-sigma event.

That's three 6-sigma events in ONE WEEK.

To explain briefly: in finance, we measure price movements around an average using the standard deviation, which we call sigma.

1-sigma: normal
2-sigma: common
3-sigma: starting to become rare
4-sigma: exceptional
5-sigma: extremely rare
6-sigma: should occur once every 500 million

These are the 6-sigma type episodes we've seen before:

– The October 1987 crash, a 22% drop in one session
– The COVID-19 crash in March 2020
– The surge in the Swiss franc in January 2015
– WTI oil going negative in April 2020

But we've never had 3 events occurring in one week.

Do you understand the point?

A 6-sigma event is almost NEVER triggered by a simple macro headline.

It almost always comes from the market structure: leverage, overly concentrated positions, margin calls, collateral problems, and forced sales or purchases.

This is important to understand because we are talking about internal tensions in the mechanics of the system.

As you know, the Japanese bond market is at the heart of the global financial system, and I won't go into that whole thing, but a 6-sigma movement in a market of that size doesn't go unnoticed.

Seeing a 6-sigma movement in silver just a few days later gives one pause for thought.

And now gold?? This is absolutely insane.

Why are we seeing extreme statistical events, days apart, in such different markets?

When a pillar of global financing becomes unstable, leverage tends to contract, and two things happen simultaneously: forced selling in certain assets and forced protective buying in others.

Historically, precious metals tend to be among the beneficiaries.

Long-term interest rates say something about the credibility of states: that is, their ability to honor future debts without resorting massively to inflation.

Precious metals say something about the credibility of the currency itself, and when both become unstable at the same time, we are looking at a questioning of the monetary framework. I won't elaborate, because I want to share the rest in another tweet tomorrow, but generally when a regime starts to crack, the adjustments are BRUTAL.

It's precisely at these moments that several high-sigma events appear in different asset classes.

I'll repeat: seeing three consecutive 6-sigma events is not normal.

Gold and silver are explicitly telling you that we are experiencing a real paradigm shift.

![](https://m.stacker.news/127891)

The impossible has just happened.

econ

On purpose.

For the first time in 15 years, the interests of Washington and Tokyo have aligned.

On Friday, the NY Fed called dealers asking for USD/JPY quotes.

This has a name: rate check.

Last warning before intervention.

The last time the US and Japan intervened TOGETHER in the exchange rate was after Fukushima, in 2011.

Why now?

Japan needs a strong yen to contain inflation.
Trump needs low long-term yields to refinance the debt.

Both problems are solved with the same solution: a weaker dollar.

The Numbers:

→ $DXY below 96: 4-year low
→ 40-year JGB: hit 4.24% last week: first time since 2007
→ US shutdown: deadline January 30th
→ Powell: replacement could be announced THIS WEEK

The Math:

→ DXY plummeting = "Sell America" returning strongly
→ Every dollar-denominated asset needs to be repriced
→ Gold and silver at all-time highs is no coincidence

For Bitcoin:

Short term = risk. Too strong a yen forces an unwind of the carry trade.

Medium term = bullish.

Weak dollar = the scenario that justifies the original $BTC thesis.

What to watch:

→ FOMC tomorrow
→ Chair nomination
→ DXY

Faith in the dollar as a global reserve currency is ending. Fast.

Take a position accordingly.

![](https://m.stacker.news/127752)

The dollar is being sacrificed.

This is simply insane.

Silver was having one of the biggest days in history, rising 14%.

And then, it reversed EVERYTHING.

Silver just wiped out today's movement.

$900 BILLION in market cap wiped out in 90 minutes.

![](https://m.stacker.news/127648)

Extreme volatility: silver reverses one of the greatest rallies in history.

Do you carry your private Bitcoin keys with you?

Then consider reconsidering.

Imagine the police simply leaking your seeds and you LOSING everything.

Well, it's already happened.

![](https://m.stacker.news/127647)

Walking around with your Bitcoin seeds could be a fatal mistake.

Bitcoin's computing power rate is falling severely, possibly linked to winter storms occurring in the US, a country that accounts for more than 37% of global mining.

Hashrate has decreased by approximately 10% in the last 24 hours alone.

![](https://m.stacker.news/127612)

Bitcoin mining is declining.

This could add more fuel to the rally in stocks and metals.

And make Bitcoin take off.

Understand and position yourself:

Last Thursday, the NY Fed called the major banks.

They inquired about conditions in the yen market.

This is called a "rate check."

It's the last step before currency intervention.

The US hasn't done this since 1998.

If it happens, the mechanism is straightforward:

→ Fed creates dollars out of thin air
→ Uses these dollars to buy yen
→ Fed's balance sheet expands
→ More global liquidity
→ Risk assets rise

Arthur Hayes explained where to look:

Every Thursday, the Fed publishes the H.4.1 report.

The line that matters: "Foreign currency denominated assets."

Today it's at ~$19 billion. It's been stuck there forever.

If that number starts to rise, you'll know what to do. Hayes' thesis is simple: Bitcoin follows dollar liquidity.

2025 was the year the Fed drained the system. BTC moved sideways.

If the dollar tap reopens—for whatever reason—BTC will react.

He projects $200k by March if the intervention is confirmed.

Two hundred. Thousand. Dollars.

By March.

The problem is what happens along the way.

There are still hundreds of billions in carry trade.

People who borrowed cheap yen to buy risk assets.

If the yen strengthens too quickly, this group needs to liquidate positions to cover the loans.

What to monitor:

→ federalreserve.gov/releases/h41
→ Every Thursday, line “Foreign currency denominated assets”
→ Increase = thesis confirmed

The largest liquidity injection since COVID may be forming right now.

Position yourself accordingly.

![](https://m.stacker.news/127494)

The Fed is about to print dollars to save Japan.

Simply unbelievable.

The guy bought Bitcoin every day, $30 a day in DCA, and after 7 years his portfolio reached $1 million.

He spent $86,370 in total, which is now worth $1 million.

![](https://m.stacker.news/127345)

The power to buy every day

There have been no significant advances in the last 24 hours. The number of open positions continues to decrease, signaling greater risk aversion in leveraged markets, which is pushing the spot market towards greater dominance.

We still have liquidity levels just below $86,500; after reaching the $87-88k zone, we would see some relief from the downward trend. The expectation is that the pause in Japanese interest rates and possible intervention by the Bank of Japan in the exchange rate will somewhat alleviate the risk-off sentiment caused by a new rise in long-term bond yields.

![](https://m.stacker.news/127218)