Worthless. This guy would be bullish regardless of what was happening. Btc equivalent of XRP army.

A combo for me:

It may be a smallish site, but I feel like it's still actively moving forward, really searching. Bullish on it becoming even more meaningful.

Listen to things outside your central interests, is my advice. W btc stuff esp it's easy to get spun up looking for hopium, confirmation of what you already think, evidence that you're awesome and soon to be rich. At least that's what happens to me.

Find podcasts on literature and philosophy or whatever. That can be joyous and you're unlikely to fall into euphoria loops.

Karlsson is a treasure and you beat me to posting this.

I assume he will eventually be broadly recognized and make it big and then I will be salty in classic hipster fashion.

Ugh, this is beautiful, Siggy. What a testament. And I love how you didn't do the normal thing that people do, make your friend sound like some kind of paragon. But rather a messy person, full of virtues and vices, wins and losses, all mixed together. Sounds like me, sounds like everyone I know. He is lucky to have been seen, over the years, with such attention.

Now there's the dog that didn't bark in the night.

Agree fully. You're on fire today.

FWIW, this is why I think a lot of the usual maxi crap is not just wrong and stupid, but actually harmful. The people who can be caught with that bait have been harvested from the sea. The other 95% of humanity reads unhinged btc ranting and bounces off, hard.

The good news (for people who care about btc adoption, and it achieving something in the world, and, yes, NGU) is that as people come in, the tide is slowly turning, and new stories more reality-compatible are available that people won't bounce off of.

Your smart normie friend now has a chance of not finding this whole thing a tire fire of lunacy. That bodes well, even if he never joins the others in the woods under some felled trees wearing deer pelts with his harem of feral tradwives.

I've been wondering about this too. I met a guy who had been into btc pretty early (2015 ish) and had a real job and had bought a lot of it (dunno how much exactly counted as a lot). Contra the usual narrative, he was no steely-eyed god-king with deep principles, he was basically a dipshit who was in the right place/time to strike it big, but less than average success in all other ways.

Anyway, I think: what if that guy had held until now, and found himself with a hundred million dollars on his laptop? What would he do? My first instinct is to think he'd be scared shitless and would move it to Unchained or something. My second thought is that he doesn't have the sense to be scared shitless so maybe he just lets it ride?

But there must be many such examples of way bigger whales than this guy. Remember that Asian hacker guy who had billions worth hid in a big gulp cup or whatever it was?

Underrated idea.

Now I'm kind of into you.

I am far far away from the most maxi bitcoiner, but why you would sell bitcoin to pay down a mortgage is baffling to me.

She'd probably be into you tho.

Jesus, I'd spend all my time doing this, till I got booted back to the present.

Of course, explaining to people who I was would take up a lot of that story time I reckon.

They thought about things and looked into the distance. If magazines were available they thumbed through those. That's what I remember.

This was inspiring to read. Good to remember that for many things, it's not nearly as hopeless as it seems. It doesn't take that much to make an impact, one domino topples another.

How much of this is bc Elon won't shut the fuck up, and how much for larger macro issues?

See, you knew it would pay off and it did :)

That's the one! Gracias.

Since zero people hold their retirement savings in cash, a more honest one would be an S&P chart, and a btc chart, and then circle all the drawdowns on both, and wish them the best.

Or you could, like, explain how the elements fit together with a pricing model. Like I originally asked for.

But you give the advice you think will be most helpful in your role as Uncle Jim. I'll do the same. Best of luck to your loved ones.

I think that's the best case - as a reminder about mindset. Some utility in that. But there are very pragmatic reasons to care about price, as above, and receiving the mantra does those people no good when they need info to make important life decisions.

None of those are what I was thinking of, but they are all great, thank you!