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Derek, in this Veritassium video, mentions a NASA selection process: 18300 applicants, 11 will be selected. He argues that if an individual's performance is 95% their actual performance and 5% luck, then on average, only 1.6 of the selected 11 individuals will be rightfully selected, as luck will become a major contributing factor.
You can check it with the following script:
import random
def exp(N=18300, t=11, lck=0.05, perf_fn=random.random, lck_fn=random.random):
     ppl = [(perf_fn(), lck_fn(), i) for i in range(N)]
     with_luck = sorted(ppl, key=lambda x: x[0]*(1-lck)+x[1]*lck, reverse=True)[:t]
     no_luck = sorted(ppl, key=lambda x: x[0], reverse=True)[:t]
     return len(set(p[2] for p in with_luck) & set(p[2] for p in no_luck))
RUNS = 1000
print(sum(exp() for _ in range(RUNS))/RUNS)
I think it was a few years back that someone made a similar argument and made me change my perspective on success. I've come to view many of my achievements as products of luck. That's probably also why I try not to hold too much reverence for some of the highly successful people of the world. What they do is amazing, their actions are, yet that doesn't mean they are amazing, as individuals. I try to admire the actions more than the people behind those actions.
1107 sats \ 0 replies \ @gnilma 7 Jul
If you go deeper, I think it's all luck. The time (as in year / era) you're born is luck, the location you're born into is luck, the family you're born into is luck, the genetics you have is luck, just being able to stay alive into adulthood to make something of yourself is luck.
Hard work helps, but it's mostly luck that allows you to even have a chance to work hard. That's why I'm always thankful for being born in a stable family, during a time of peace, in a country in peace, with frugal parents who both provided for the family. And I'm also very thankful to be able to receive an education, learned to read and write, learned to think (still learning...). And extremely thankful to be able to marry my wife, have 3 kids, have a family for me to work hard for and provide for.
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Rather than conclude that success depends mostly on luck, I'd rather redefine what it means to be successful.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @klk 7 Jul
Stay humble and do the work. The higher the hashrate, the more likely you'll get lucky.
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