Derek, in this Veritassium video, mentions a NASA selection process: 18300 applicants, 11 will be selected. He argues that if an individual's performance is 95% their actual performance and 5% luck, then on average, only 1.6 of the selected 11 individuals will be rightfully selected, as luck will become a major contributing factor.
You can check it with the following script:
import random
def exp(N=18300, t=11, lck=0.05, perf_fn=random.random, lck_fn=random.random):
ppl = [(perf_fn(), lck_fn(), i) for i in range(N)]
with_luck = sorted(ppl, key=lambda x: x[0]*(1-lck)+x[1]*lck, reverse=True)[:t]
no_luck = sorted(ppl, key=lambda x: x[0], reverse=True)[:t]
return len(set(p[2] for p in with_luck) & set(p[2] for p in no_luck))
RUNS = 1000
print(sum(exp() for _ in range(RUNS))/RUNS)
I think it was a few years back that someone made a similar argument and made me change my perspective on success. I've come to view many of my achievements as products of luck. That's probably also why I try not to hold too much reverence for some of the highly successful people of the world. What they do is amazing, their actions are, yet that doesn't mean they are amazing, as individuals. I try to admire the actions more than the people behind those actions.