I too would be tempted to dump my holdings of ETF coin in a contentious fork. But that doesn't guarantee ETF coin will lose.

With the current crop of bitcoin holders, it's become clear that many could be convinced to dump in favour of ETF coin. And the ETFs and TCs themselves hold a lot of bitcoin. If they all dumped, I think it'd be a high hurdle to jump.

And that's my point. I think there is a scenario where ETF coin would seemingly win the day and many would say "bitcoin has failed". But actually there is a strong chance that, even if the other fork coin didn't rise like a phoenix, the ETF coin itself would be fixed later.

All that said, it's possible you're right and that scenario won't play out: in the unlikely event that ETFs and TCs were to risk trying such a thing, that might not be enough to push a dodgy protocol change. Although you seem much more certain that it won't play out - and I think that's a weakness, because if it did happen you'll be like a Sardaukar confronted with defeat.