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42 sats \ 7 replies \ @HardMoney OP 25 Oct \ parent \ on: KG apparently tied to DOJ investigation Stacker_Sports
I didn’t realize the poker cheating is a separate issue altogether from the game rigging like Terry rozier sucking on purpose to hit unders
I'm very curious about how the leagues are going to adjust to this.
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I wonder how society will deal with insider trading on prediction markets
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It's good for prediction markets to have people use whatever information they have.
The problem would be feedback from the prediction market into outcomes. Assassinations are probably the most prominent and obvious example, while throwing dildos onto WNBA courts is on the lower end of seriousness.
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The Nobel peace prize seems like someone had obvious insider information. I agree the reason prediction markets are so accurate is they are a mechanism that distills all information into a clear price signal (including material non-public)
Will be interesting to see what scandals comes out of it
Another example like dildos would be like this diplo 5k thing. He could purposely control the outcome and have some buddies bet beforehand. Could be tougher to find proof than being able to vet whether whoever threw a dildo or streaked at a game had a financial bet on it. https://polymarket.com/event/how-fast-will-diplo-run-5k
I think assasination markets won’t be as mainstreamed or have significant liquidity. Feels like regulators will push that offshore / onto dark web markets which I would think have less liquidity and would be an area asking for fbi investigators to track you down on if something like a Charlie Kirk bet happened
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Even if they don't specifically have assassination markets, anything like "Will Trump finish his 2nd term?" is inclusive of assassination, so an assassin could determine the outcome.
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That’s a good point. Sometimes the fine print in these are restrictive or too subjective tho. Could read like “if he is impeached or resigns for health reasons”
Oracle could suspend the payout arguing criteria wasn’t met arguing a subjective take or just rugging it altogether and suspending the market
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But then the problem is that the prediction market isn't really answering the question people want answered because it's omitting part of the outcome set.
It's all part of trying to predict the system from inside the system.
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