Wow, blast from the past.

I must protest your description: Fyookball's article is complete garbage. His model for the Lightning Network is nonsense and on basis of that non-existent foundation all that math is complete eyewash.

Please refer to the reply I wrote back then: https://murchandamus.medium.com/i-have-just-read-jonald-fyookballs-article-https-medium-com-jonaldfyookball-mathematical-fd112d13737a