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21 sats \ 1 reply \ @Dash_1971 6h \ parent \ on: The Economics of Dating that Ruined a Generation econ
I find your posts illuminating and think you make many good points. But can I play Devil's Advocate and challenge you on two points? 1: Isn't China also failing to reproduce and facing demographic issues? 2: Isn't China essentially Japan 2.0? And look at what happened to Japan. Turned out they were working as slaves making cars and radios for entitled Americans just so they could earn dollars and buy treasuries which were unilaterally debased via monetary inflation. The life force of that one great nation has been slowly drained by the vampire squid dollar hegemony empire to the extent they are now prostituting themselves to tourists to make ends meet. How does China avoid the same fate?
I suppose it can be argued China woke up to the scam after the GFC and hence them moving to buying gold from that time. But what if China is repeating the mistake of the past of choosing the wrong collateral? As I understand from Saif's The Bitcoin Standard one of the reasons for China's fall was them choosing to stick with silver while the west moved to gold for reserves. What if that mistake is now being repeated by choosing gold over Bitcoin?
I ask these questions out of genuine curiosity. I'm open to the idea of China challenging the US but the fact is the US regime loves to have a boogie man (Germany, Russia, Japan, now China) which it likes to project on and accuse of all the things it does itself. But these boogiemen often turn out to be nothing but bums lined up to be knocked out by the great heavyweight champion the United States of America.
Also, one other thing I'd be interested to hear your take on: do you think the Israel alliance helps or hinders the US as it pertains to containing China? And by that I mean Israel is a formidable country with a population I would argue doesn't suffer the same entitlement and naivety as the US population. They are street fighters and are playing for keeps. That whole exploding pager thing showed that well enough. Does China going against US interests mean making an enemy out of Israel? Or will Israel just work with both China and the US, aligning themselves more with the eventual winner? Them being a nuclear power in the middle east and having the ties they do to Washington makes me think the Chinese need to address the Israel issue if they are ever seriously going to challenge the Petro dollar.
Thank you for considering my arguments and providing some perfectly reasonable critical responses.
Firstly Israel and I want to emphasize on this topic I am much less confident and more speaking on gut feeling than any deep knowledge- with that said I see Israel as a Jewish state and I see Jews as highly skilled due to for many centuries having no nation state base but instead reliant upon skills. Jews have excelled in banking because of their exemption from Christian and Muslim sanctions on usury. Jewish bankers financed the powers of Europe - Hitler took them on and lost. Jewish bankers own the US government.
So my guess is China will not be willing to be subservient to Jewish usury like most western powers have been for the last 500 years. The current power struggle between China and US leaves the Jews and Israel at risk of losing their military proxy-puppet, USA.
China has backed Iran and Iran has financed the range of military forces who seek to confront Israel. Israel has shown great skill and ingenuity and needs to assert itself more as US power declines.
China may not exert its dominance in the same way as western imperialists have- for one thing it will not be backed by Jewish bankers.
China has historically expected tribute and subservience from neighbouring countries but also left them to govern their people in their way.
Modern China appears to be similarly a mercantile power- interested mostly in trade and exchange, not military conquest and subjugation.
China and the Jews both believe their culture is inherently superior to all others- traditionally China believed the further you are from the Middle Kingdom, the less civilised and more sub human you will be.
The Jews believe they are Gods chosen people.
Both cultures assumption of superiority naturally provokes dislike from other cultures...but their cultural arrogance has endured, where many other cultures have been subjugated and/or withered and died.
Chinese demographics- China could impose the one child policy which both enabled the early stages of modernisation but also went on too long creating an imminent workforce deficit. But China now leads the world in robotics and other high tech labour saving applications. China is also raising the age of retirement from 50 to 55 for woman and 55 to 60 for men. Retirement entitlements in China are lower than in the west but also not such a burden on the state and the state provision of health care is extremely efficient and cost effective.
Most western nations are not replacing their populations internally but are increasingly reliant upon imported labour to sustain economy/GDP but there are problems with that especially if you enter conflict with other nations - how will the predominance of Chinese technicians in US universities and tech firms go as the trade war escalates? Cultural unity and self reliance can be a significant advantage in times of war. Diversity is often not.
China is not Japan- Japan has since WW2 been a military and monetary tribute state to the US. When in the 1980s Japan looked like it might challenge US wealth the US demanded changes to the Japanese monetary system and economy that threw Japan into the permanent stagflation it has been ever since.
Chinas entire process of development since WW2 has been to insist upon its right to true sovereignty on all levels. Initially the US did not recognise the PRC. China gained nuclear weapons and prevented the CIA from seizing the strategic military high ground of Tibet while also pushing back the US takeover of Korea where US troops replaced Japanese troops who had been occupying Korea through WW2.
The threat of US infringement upon China was successfully used by Mao to strengthen the post war fragile unity in China under the CCP.
Chinese have not forgotten the humiliation of The Opium Wars and the hundred years of humiliation that followed. Few westerners understand the importance of this.
If you want to understand China today start with the Opium Wars and read on through the 100 years of humiliation right through to Japanese Invasion and the Nanjing Massacre and through to the CCP seizing power immediately after the nuclear bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
China since WW2 has fought to assert its right to self determination- and unlike almost all other nations, has succeeded.
Japan, S.Korea, Canada, Britain, the EU, Australasia are all monetarly and militarily subservient tribute states to the USA.
China is the first, since 2016, nation on the IMFs board of reserve currency issuers, not to be a tribute state to the USA.
Monetary and military power structures are highly aligned.
CCP ideology is inherently opposed to Bitcoin- Bitcoin being a model of money that gives the individual greater monetary power and autonomy but which by so doing reduces the states ability to leverage the populations savings.
From Chinas point of view the need to be able to collectivise and project power (including monetary power) is fundamental to its core project of insisting upon the right to self determination. China has generally applied fiat monetary leverage with significantly greater skill and discipline to the west in recent decades...using it mostly to build productive economic infrastructure and capacity.
Their CBDC is probably the most advanced one in operation and dovetails into mBridge and CIPS and the overall project of building an alternative to the SWIFT hegemony of the US.
Trumps tilt toward stablecoins may force them to rethink but neither side is seriously considering allowing Bitcoin for international trade settlement.
Trumps crypto projects look more like Britains Second Empire...a means of secreting wealth as the empire declines.
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