I agree with you that
If NFT bros spam up the chain with worthless bits the LN operators will just raise their fee rates and leave a lot less room for the spam to be mined on.
However, where I disagree with you is your assertion that
Most bitcoiners realise that LN is the most important area of the Bitcoin ecosystem right now...
The Lightning Network has great potential, but it is nothing without the solidity and security of base layer bitcoin. I also believe that we tend to overestimate LN adoption and usability right now. I recently listened to a podcast interview with Sergej Kotliar, CEO of bitrefill, and was shocked to learn what a relatively small portion of sales were occurring on LN compared to on chain.
The Lightning Network can be employed as a layer two to any shitcoin blockchain. Its potential is tied completely to base layer bitcoin.
Maybe I should have written "bitcoin maxis" not just "bitcoiners". I do about equal amount on chain vs LN now, even at $20/tx I still see at most 0.2% fee rate for my on chain transactions.
If ordinals manage to drive chain space up towards the $10 or higher all that ecommerce going on with on-chain is going to see a drop-off and successful operators will see the sense in adopting Lightning as an option for payment and putting money into promoting adoption of LN.
Shitcoins adopting LN is a loser's game, not only is the small chains less secure, most of them already have very high fees (ETH/SOL/AVA) and big/fast blocks. With taproot ready to permit both sidechain and LN transit of shitcoin tokens the momentum is on the side of Bitcoin, the cost for adapting to enable this capability widely is far lower for Bitcoin LN than it is for the setting up of an LN system for other chains.
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100% agree
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