Despite the fact we cannot assume current Lightning Network data is accurate[1], it shows that the legacy finance roots are still visible in the mirror. The US is dominating with nearly 30% of nodes, while the usual suspects (Germany, Canada, France) round out the top tier. Together with China (just over 14%), these top 5 countries control over 70% of the network. Why is such censorship-resistant tech being so evenly distributed?
The Capacity ParadoxThe Capacity Paradox
Here's where it gets interesting, because node count alone doesn't tell the whole story. The network's capacity is pooling in traditional financial centers, which is ironic but maybe inevitable during the first decade phase. But hey, don't trust me, verify the data (if you can):
- China: 1,947 nodes but only 2.02 BTC total capacity. Either these are hobbyist nodes or something's off with the reporting.
- Switzerland: Just 389 nodes holding 1,417 BTC. Banks gonna bank, even on Lightning.
- US: Solid distribution with 4,104 nodes and 5,013 BTC, suggesting a healthier mix of routing nodes.
The Unbanked Reality: Where Lightning Should Matter MostThe Unbanked Reality: Where Lightning Should Matter Most
This is where the data gets uncomfortable. The countries that need Bitcoin most are barely on the map:
AfricaAfrica
- Nigeria: 4 nodes, 3.1M sats (0.031 BTC)
- Kenya: 7 nodes, 2.8M sats
- Ghana: 3 nodes, 1.4M sats
- South Africa: 45 nodes, 12.66 BTC (the exception, likely due to existing infrastructure)
Latin America's Mixed BagLatin America's Mixed Bag
- El Salvador: 4 nodes, 3.40 BTC (disappointing given legal tender status)
- Venezuela: 7 nodes, 8.9M sats (hyperinflation, meet infrastructure reality)
- Argentina: 27 nodes, 1.48 BTC (slightly better, inflation-aware population)
- Brazil: 114 nodes, 29.24 BTC (regional leader by far)
Southeast AsiaSoutheast Asia
- Philippines: 9 nodes, 2.8M sats (massive remittance market, minimal Lightning presence)
- Vietnam: 10 nodes, 57.2M sats
- Indonesia: 31 nodes, 1.29 BTC
- India: 23 nodes, 250.16 BTC (outlier with concentrated capital)
Middle EastMiddle East
- Iran: 5 nodes, 8.7M sats (sanctions aren't exactly Lightning-friendly)
- Lebanon: 1 node, 0 sats (banking crisis, but no adoption)
- Syria: 1 node, 1M sats
The Correlation Nobody Wants to Talk AboutThe Correlation Nobody Wants to Talk About
Lightning adoption somehow correlates with existing internet infrastructure, not with need. Countries with the worst banking systems, where Lightning should be a lifeline, have the least presence. Why?
- Internet infrastructure: You can't run a Lightning node on unstable power and slow internet
- Capital requirements: Even small channels need capital. The unbanked don't have capital to lock up
- Technical barriers: Node operation isn't plug-and-play yet
- Custodial versus self-custody: The unbanked regions might be using custodial services that don't show up in this data
The uncomfortable truth is that we're building freedom money, but it currently requires first-world infrastructure to participate in routing. The people who need Bitcoin most are relegated to potential custodial solutions—exactly what we're trying to avoid.
El Salvador's legal tender experiment shows 4 nodes despite government adoption. That's a canary in the coal mine. Either:
- Most usage is custodial
- Infrastructure isn't there for self-custody at scale
- Or both
The Lightning Network is still a first-world tool being built for third-world problems. The question is whether this is a temporary bootstrapping phase or a permanent feature.
If we're serious about banking the unbanked, we need solutions that work on unstable infrastructure, require minimal capital to participate, and don't assume always-online nodes. Otherwise, we're just rebuilding correspondent banking with better plumbing.
Stack sats, run nodes, and stay humble
Check this for reference. That chart image is deceitful, not true ! It gather data based on where the node public IP is located / assigned, not the physical location of the node. I could have very easy a node running at home in whatever country, but using a wireguard VPN tunnel to a VPS that gave me that public IP. That VPS could use also an IP allocated to Amazon or Google or whatever data center, but that doesn't mean I run my node on AWS... ↩
does it really matter the geographical distribution of Lightning nodes...? Since the network connects everywhere, what's the added benefit of having specifically e.g., Kenyan nodes?
you are probably right: IP means nothing. However, I believe that somehow the data reflects a reality of LN accessibility and resource distribution. Southern countries are more exposed to custodial solutions just because running a node is inaccessible to those in need. II wonder if solutions like LNbits, Fedi and similar are (or will be) more effective at some stage.
no, I don't mean just IP... I mean, Lightning will work as well for me if there is a node in my country as when there isn't... BECAUSE it's global and big and the networks (neither Bitcoin nor Lightning) don't care about national borders
Like, the liquidity in Kenya is irrelevant, no?
Yes, sure thing. I'm not talking about end users, it's more about node runners and the ability they have to operate guaranteeing a service. Can you recognize some disadvantages for people running nodes where hardware, internet, and electricity are not taken for granted as they are in the West?
right ok, but then your low numbers for e.g. Kenya is just an indication of that (hardware, internet access/electricity etc) since Lightning nodes must be always-on.
Correct, the point of this post is to highlight the fiat discrepancies somehow mirroring in the Lightning Network
Southern hemisphere will always be fucked because of bad infrastructure. LN needs fast response, not download bandwidth, thing that few LN node runners from South understand it.
So yes, somehow, the southern users will have to rely more on more LN banks run by community servers with good connections (if they can have that).
Why can these LN banks be locally managed? I don't remember exactly who was talking about it: Cuba is a great example, from what I read. The question is how and what we can do to make their lives easier. Are solutions like Lightning.pub a better option compared with existing tech heavy like LNbits and BTCpay servers?
Or we just wait for the next custodial service to offer LN around there?
Yes, exactly... it was @BTCLNAT