Semi-slop warning, I ran Gemini over my takes from recent ~econ threads and related articles to articulate how it all comes together.
The global financial system is currently undergoing its most significant regime shift since the end of Bretton Woods. To the casual observer, the headlines suggest chaos: a "war" between the White House and the Federal Reserve, mounting debt, and the rise of digital assets.
In reality, these are the constituent parts of a unified financial offensive. This transition—the move from a Rules-Based Order to a Math-Based Order—is designed to internalize the US debt, crush offshore moochers, and re-anchor American prosperity to a digital ledger that the US private sector already dominates.
1. The Internalization: SLR Reform & Shadow Monetization1. The Internalization: SLR Reform & Shadow Monetization
For decades, the "Rules-Based Order" relied on the Fed to manage the economy through discretionary interest rate moves and loud, public QE programs. This system is being replaced by the "Shadow Pivot."
- The Plumbing: The Fed's Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) act as the tactical bridge to a structural overhaul of the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR).
- The Engine: By "un-corseting" the banks—exempting Treasuries and reserves from leverage limits—the US creates a massive, automated "sink" for its own debt. US banks now have the legalized capacity to swallow the national debt without the Fed needing to print a single public dollar.
2. The Offensive: The "Dollar Wrecking Ball," Tariffs, & Stablecoins2. The Offensive: The "Dollar Wrecking Ball," Tariffs, & Stablecoins
While shoring up the domestic front, the US is weaponizing the Dollar to destroy the offshore moochers that exist only through scalping SWIFT transfers and manipulative trade policy.
- The Tariff Multiplier: Tariffs are not just trade tools; they are dollar-scarcity engines. By forcing a shift in the terms of trade, tariffs compel foreigners to hunt for increasingly scarce dollars to pay duties, driving the Wrecking Ball harder against offshore fiats.
- The Export Vehicle: Under the GENIUS Act (July 2025), the Treasury provides the "clean" exit. By exporting US-backed stablecoins directly to the world’s smartphones, it bypasses foreign banks and offers a direct life-raft to those fleeing local currency collapses (Yen, Euro, Lira).
- The Melt-Up: This creates a global melt-up into US assets. As offshore moochers fail, global capital has no choice but to flow into the US banking system, Bitcoin, and the US stock market.
3. The Equity: Bitcoin as the Sovereign Anchor3. The Equity: Bitcoin as the Sovereign Anchor
The most critical component of this new "Math-Based Order" is the role of Bitcoin. Unlike gold, which is opaque and logistically heavy, Bitcoin provides a transparent, verifiable Proof of Reserve.
- Private Dominance: While the media focuses on a "Strategic Reserve," the real power lies in the fact that Americans and US companies own ~40% of the total Bitcoin supply.
- The GDP Multiplier: As the Dollar Wrecking Ball liquidates foreign moochers, Bitcoin and US stables act as exit ramps. Because the US dominates Bitcoin supply, a pump in Bitcoin price acts as a massive injection of equity into the American balance sheet—effectively raising GDP and fixing the debt-to-equity ratio without needing a taxpayer bailout. The game theory has won; the US is irretractably incentivized to pump the corn.
4. The 2026 "Midterm Heat" Scenario4. The 2026 "Midterm Heat" Scenario
The fuel hits the fire going into the 2026 midterms.
- The Fiscal Bazooka: The "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBBA) is designed to hit its peak impact in the Q2 2026 tax season. Between retroactive credits and massive corporate Capex from 2025 translating into 2026 growth, the economy is being engineered to run hot without the core price inflation brought about by counter-efficient massive increases in government spending.
- The "WWE-style Kayfabe": The public posturing between Trump and Powell (his own appointment) provides the necessary narrative cover for this merger of the Treasury and the Fed. With Stephen Miran (author of the MAL accords) now on the Board of Governors, and more appointments to come, the line between fiscal and monetary policy has effectively vanished. This maintains the illusion of independence while "Ending The Fed" and implementing the Bessent Doctrine, retvrning the US Treasury to its pre-Fed state of a unified command.
Summary: The New LedgerSummary: The New Ledger
The transition is complete when the "Rules" (which were being gamed by rivals) are replaced by the "Math" (which the US dominates).
The US is no longer just a participant in the global economy; it is the Global Clearing House.
- The Result: A 2026 melt-up where the US flourishes, the Dollar reigns supreme as a digital export, and Bitcoin provides the hard-asset floor for a new American Century.
I like the line of reasoning, I just can't help but feel that this thesis ignores the prospect of countermeasures. Ultimately bitcoin is the black hole that absorbs all capital, but it's not the only gravity well in the solar system. There is gold, real estate, industrial commodities, energy, raw military power, and manufacturing capacity to compete with. On any of those fields the US competes but doesn't dominate.
Parallel systems, where they might be sustainable, are still preferable to an extractive system at the US's expense
The US does dominate in all those assets you mentioned, particularly when considering our sphere... Australia isn't going to become the capitol of capital just because it supplies China's manufacturing with raw materials.
China+Russia can be pretty strong system if we ignore demographics, which is why the lines of demarcation are being drawn... Bitcoin then makes for a bridge between those systems where they aren't fully decoupled. Gold will likely remain a factor, but a shrinking one, as settlement is so inefficient.
From a military perspective, the US would do well to leave Europe to Russia and rely on China and Russia having a history of rivalry over cooperation.. This would divide the Eurasian landmass without having to prop up Europe. Certain Pentagon talking heads have intimidated as much, a Russified Europe is more manageable than a Chinafied Russia.
I am sympathetic that the demographic situation in China and other east Asian industrial societies is terminal, including in the allies of the US, but I don't agree that demographics tilts everything in favour of the US. Japan has undoubtedly been able to keep it's bond yields low in part due to its ethnic demographic homogeneity, meaning it hasn't experienced the degree of consensus collapse that we have in the West.
Across the board, what's the alternative to the US?
Even if China+Russia can keep pace on raw materials, mfg, energy, defense, gold... How do they get the US out of position as the capitol of capital?
The US doesn't need to be perfect to run this strategy, just better, and it already has the high ground. Apparently they're running it, so if there's an alternative, what is it?
I can agree with that and still not conclude that we'll see a midterm melt-up in 2026.
You're saying that Russia-China-India-Brazil-Iran have no countermeasures? They know that bitcoin is strategically more useful to the US than it is to them.
2026 is a product of the obbb, Treasury merger, re-shoring, and lower yields... The death of offshore fiats may start as a helpful bleed but would take years to play out, could make 2028 extra fun.
So a melt-up in dollar value, not necessarily in euro or yen.
And why is it assumed that other jurisdictions have no countermeasures against StableCoins? Maybe Europe doesn't, but Russia, India, China, Brazil, they have plenty.
It doesn't rely on the absence of resistance, it's that resistance is futile.
Every other economy is largely irrelevant on scale, and their need to cooperate to scale up is a major weakness when the US has a default sphere along for the ride.
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