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Parallel systems, where they might be sustainable, are still preferable to an extractive system at the US's expense
The US does dominate in all those assets you mentioned, particularly when considering our sphere... Australia isn't going to become the capitol of capital just because it supplies China's manufacturing with raw materials.
China+Russia can be pretty strong system if we ignore demographics, which is why the lines of demarcation are being drawn... Bitcoin then makes for a bridge between those systems where they aren't fully decoupled. Gold will likely remain a factor, but a shrinking one, as settlement is so inefficient.
From a military perspective, the US would do well to leave Europe to Russia and rely on China and Russia having a history of rivalry over cooperation.. This would divide the Eurasian landmass without having to prop up Europe. Certain Pentagon talking heads have intimidated as much, a Russified Europe is more manageable than a Chinafied Russia.
I am sympathetic that the demographic situation in China and other east Asian industrial societies is terminal, including in the allies of the US, but I don't agree that demographics tilts everything in favour of the US. Japan has undoubtedly been able to keep it's bond yields low in part due to its ethnic demographic homogeneity, meaning it hasn't experienced the degree of consensus collapse that we have in the West.
Across the board, what's the alternative to the US?
Even if China+Russia can keep pace on raw materials, mfg, energy, defense, gold... How do they get the US out of position as the capitol of capital?
The US doesn't need to be perfect to run this strategy, just better, and it already has the high ground. Apparently they're running it, so if there's an alternative, what is it?
I can agree with that and still not conclude that we'll see a midterm melt-up in 2026.
You're saying that Russia-China-India-Brazil-Iran have no countermeasures? They know that bitcoin is strategically more useful to the US than it is to them.
2026 is a product of the obbb, Treasury merger, re-shoring, and lower yields... The death of offshore fiats may start as a helpful bleed but would take years to play out, could make 2028 extra fun.
So a melt-up in dollar value, not necessarily in euro or yen.
And why is it assumed that other jurisdictions have no countermeasures against StableCoins? Maybe Europe doesn't, but Russia, India, China, Brazil, they have plenty.
It doesn't rely on the absence of resistance, it's that resistance is futile.
Every other economy is largely irrelevant on scale, and their need to cooperate to scale up is a major weakness when the US has a default sphere along for the ride.
India, Brazil, China, probably Russia, all have sophisticated payment rails that make USDT largely irrelevant on a grand scale. They can easily make it inconvenient enough and even theoretically supply their own interoperable payment rails so that they're own citizens don't leave their currency to trade internationally, the conversion is handled through swaps.
You're argument seems to me like a dragon eating it's own tail. How does the US debase it's own currency, make it less useful in international trade, and prevent the coordination of its peer competitors, and come out on top?
I mean, I get it that it's great to be a Bitcoiner in the US or Europe relative to your peers, other citizens of the collective West. But how that converts to US dominance in any of the fields that matter is frankly unsupported.
I like the line of reasoning, I just can't help but feel that this thesis ignores the prospect of countermeasures. Ultimately bitcoin is the black hole that absorbs all capital, but it's not the only gravity well in the solar system. There is gold, real estate, industrial commodities, energy, raw military power, and manufacturing capacity to compete with. On any of those fields the US competes but doesn't dominate.