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The only thing that changes that calculation is if you have knowledge you know no one else has.
so then it becomes a game of verifying/assigning probability to whether I in fact do have knowledge nobody else does -- you know, the soldier trading contracts before invading Venezuela.
So, perhaps I have a good standing/high reputation on the trading site, and so we can have derivative bets on whether I have inside information. Ohhh, the possibiiiilities
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Once the bots make better predictions than humans, won't the only thing that moves on a prediction market be insider knowledge?
If the standard operating procedure is to feed data into your bot and then it spits out the prediction positions you should take, and if most prediction market enjoyoors have access to roughly the same quality of bots as others, I would think there'd be no profit in it. The only thing that changes that calculation is if you have knowledge you know no one else has.
Maybe this is already true and prediction markets actually only trade on insider information -- but there's like a feeling in our culture that people who do superior analysis of the lay of the land (like Toby and the bros at Alphaville) are able to draw out insights that no one else can see.
I keep having this fantasy of an AI-world where we all rely on AI to be the filter through which we view the world (and the transmitter by which we reach the world) and there's a moment where I wonder if it isn't just extra steps.