Operation Saylor - Episode 9/120

Hi again and welcome to another episode of the Operation Saylor. This is update number 9, corresponding to March 2023.

If you are reading this for first time, you might want to check Episode 1, where my plan and details are explained. That will get you in context.

Another month drops by, a few banks are gone. March has definitely been an exciting month in terms of fiat crumbling. And we still have a few days left, so we might need a bit more popcorn to get till the end of the show.

A few days ago I was discussing the whole shitshow with a bitcoiner friend of mine. She said she was enjoying it and was excited to see more banks being hit by bank runs and the common public suddenly coming to understand that fiat money isn't much more than words written with smoke.

As much as I fully understood her excitement (and I share it to some degree), I couldn't help but feel like Ben Rickert in The Big Short as he heads out of the Vegas casino with his mentees. "Just don't fucking dance". I see a lot of Bitcoiners rooting for a hardcore collapse of the fiat system that suddenly slingshots us into a forced hyperbitcoinization. I find this worrying and a sign of ignorance, teenager like euphoria and short-sightedness.

I think the consequences of a break-neck paced hyperbitcoinization would be terrible. Obviously, hodlers would see their networth skyrocket in the blink of an eye. But what would be the price to pay? Who's better off: the average Joe of the current fiat system, or the richest man in Mad Max land?

I state the previous question assuming a sudden switch from the fiat standard to the bitcoin standard would have apocalyptic effects on today's economy. Humans and other things that exist in meatspace, unlike software, data and things that appear on screens, take time to change and can only adapt so fast to change. Picture our economy like a natural ecosystem. Full of individual components that interact with each other in complex and hard to predict ways. The cantillionares in the system would be this kind of parasite that is plugged into every living creature in this ecosystem, corrupting and weakening everything it touches. Nevertheless, it is a part of this natural ecosystem. It has placed itself in a central position, where it sucks life from many places and pukes it back into others, taking a cut for its own benefit in the process. Even if it's a net negative for the overall health of the ecosystem, it has become part of it. Some kind of evil backbone.

What would happen if you cut all its tentacles swiftly? How many parts of the ecosystem would die without it? How long would it take to have nature heal itself into its old glory? Coming back to real world terminology: how would our complex supply chains keep the lights on if many banks fail in a month? How many people would stop working in the face of not receiving their paychecks? How many suppliers would remove to send good to their customers without receiving payments first? How many treasuries would suddenly vanish into the void? How big of chunk of international trade would come to a halt in the confusion that would derive from the USD dominance falling apart?

I think we shouldn't hope for the world to suddenly blow to shit just to see Bitcoin succeed overnight. Let's think long term. Let's think: how can we maintain and take care of all the great technical, social and intellectual capital that we have built up to today, while getting rid of the cantillionare tentacles and shifting to a bitcoin standard?

I'll tell you what I'm hoping for: I hope they print. I hope they print like there's not tomorrow. I hope they bailout every single bank that shakes a tiny bit. Not because it is the right thing to do, we perfectly know it isn't. Instead, I root for the printer because I believe it will do two things: on one hand, it will buy us more time. More time to let bitcoin and the great technologies that surround it grow and mature. More time to bring more young kids to the world, that will see bitcoin as a force of nature like the sun, since it will have existed "since always" for them. More time for bitcoiners to keep on orange pilling all over the world, and specially in those places where it's needed the most. More time to make circular economies come to life, creating patches of this natural ecosystem that remain free of the cantillionaire monster and will do just fine once it dies. On the other hand, uber-printing will through more gas into the fire of inflation, which is one of the great problems that bitcoin is trying to solve. This will give everyone even more motivation to jump into the bitcoin wagon.

That will be it for this month. I wish you the best for the rest of march and I hope you have your popcorn ready.

*** You might have noticed this amount hasn't changed since episode 8. I made a mistake on episode 8. This month figure is fine, and episode 8's should have been 2,563.40€.