I honestly don't think that's gonna happen. The whole point of keeping blocksize small was to prevent centralization of nodes, as well as many other things. Actually reading 'the blocksize wars' atm.
Look at the mempool the last 2 months. Why do you think we need to increase blocksize? Sounds like your concern is about being able to open enough channels. That is where the fee incentive comes in, you want your channel open right now and you can't wait a week or two, then you will have to pay up(if in a high fee environment) Honestly ever since blockchain.info/blockchain.com started using segwit it has really allowed the mempool to clear more often.. What pod exactly are you referring to with rusty. Is it a SLP?
Yeah it was on a recent episode of slp. Trust me I totally understand the argument about a small blocksize. The more expensive it is to run a node the less number of nodes we have. The amount of lightning adoption in this last year has been incredible. So many new people joining this space running a lightning and a full node for the first time. I don’t have numbers on this but I think there are a ton of people running a full node now who wouldn’t be doing so if it weren’t for lightning. If lightning adoption continues to increase like this we will start to see that channel opening fees will become too expensive and become the bottleneck. TLDR: Demand for L2 creates more L1 nodes. If supply on L1 can’t meet demand of L2 we still get less L1 nodes.
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I find this to be a coherent argument. I don't think many technical Bitcoiners would be allergic to such a discussion. I'd categorize this as less a problem with blocksize and more a problem of governance generally. Hard forking the network is just a problem in and of itself and they'll probably only happen when the network is desperate. Hypothetical need/want isn't enough even for a soft fork.
I think the best thing you can do if you're concerned about the issue is follow Rusty's lead and promote the discussion more, so that if this problem appears people are a little more open to hard forking.
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I was totally closed off from any blocksize increase at all but changed my mind when I saw it from a lightning perspective. I wonder if other never-forkers would be susceptible to the same framing.
Also don't forget as we increase the blocksize we slowly get away from the fair probability that is supposed to be mining. As we get bigger blocks, it becomes more a race rather than a fair lotto.
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