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I'm curious what people's mental exchange rate is for the value of sats. I treat them as more or less equivalent to US pennies when deciding if stacking activities are worthwhile. That implies a Bitcoin valuation of $1 million, which I think most of us expect to see in the next few years.
This is a question about anticipated value, rather than current exchange rates.
I am the same. I subconsciously think a sat is a penny.
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Why so bearish? You should treat 1 Sat as 1 Dollar.
All of you should do that!
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Is that based on anything other than hope?
I think a related interesting question is what the ultimate purchasing power will be when the world is on a Bitcoin Standard. My estimate is roughly 10 sats = $1
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I value sats as their current exchange rate rather than anticipated value.
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If it weren't at the top of this website, I'd have almost no sense of what the current exchange rate is.
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But, what do mean, it only says the Bitcoin price. touches it
Look at that. Have some sats.
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I've got it as one of the things my blockclock displays, too.
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131 sats \ 2 replies \ @kr 8 Aug 2023
i like to add one extra zero to the exchange rate for simplicity, so 10x their current value
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You and @grayruby apparently think alike.
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I don't know if KR wants that association but I will definitely take it.
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I always look at a sat as a dollar, and sometimes 100 dollars if I'm thinking on lightning.
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That's higher than my back of the envelope estimate of about $10 million per Bitcoin (in purchasing power) should Bitcoin become the global reserve currency.
How did you come up with that valuation?
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I find I'm more likely to accept one free sat than I am to pick up a penny on the sidewalk. Swap the penny for a quarter and maybe I'll bend over for it.
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I'm a pathological coin picker-upper. In your terms though, I would probably exert slightly more effort for a penny than a sat.
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Fair enough. It's subjective.
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I am starting in this world of BTC and crypto, maybe that’s why I jump for joy every time I receive a few sats in my wallet. For me, it’s worth knowing that I’m using a revolutionary technology that few people use, and that will end up being accepted and adopted by the majority… But for now, I feel like a pioneer, and besides, I’m 53 years old… It’s never too late!
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I'm only a few months ahead of you on this journey. It was only recently that I had enough stacking options built up to really start evaluating whether they were worth my time or not.
That feeling of "joy every time I receive a few sats" is still fresh in my mind.
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That feeling is priceless
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Eu lhe envie 27 sats pela seu comentario show. Me de um feedback que envio mais 27 sats :)
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Saudações … Muito grato pelos sats, sempre bem-vindos … lembrarei de você quando o Bitcoin chegar a $100k. Espero que tenha um ótimo dia
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I value sats higher than children.
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What's your exchange rate?
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It depends on the child and how many tons of salt they can mine in a day.
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hard to argue with that
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Quite a bit.
If BTC is a measurement of energy. Then 1sat/min out of fountain for 1hr a day. Means my energy for that hr is worth 60sats. That's not a lot. So to me, it's worth quite a bit as it represents my time and energy, which I value quite highly.
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Fountain is not paying me anymore. They stopped a couple of months ago.
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I sent them a ticket. And they're looking at it. Apparently although possible to have your random allowance set at 0sats/min it's uncommon for it to be like that multiple weeks in a row.
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What happened to me was all the network switches during a business trip set off one of their security flags. Eventually, I got in touch with someone there who got it sorted out.
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That seems to be a common experience. I'm earning again, for the time being.
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I get promotions (today I got 6 sats for a promoted 1.5hr long cast) but I don't get regular listens anymore.
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My promotion earnings are similarly atrocious. One time it was actually 1 sat, total.
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Interesting. For me they aren't worth quite a bit, but a hundredth of a bit.
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That implies you value the content at zero, which seems unlikely.
What it says to me is that you value your best alternative to listening to Fountain no more than 60 sats higher per hour. That should be a much lower valuation.
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True... I value Spotify or YouTube... Less than fountain because they don't pay me ultimately.
But I'd value my time higher
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True... I value Spotify or YouTube... Less than fountain because they don't pay me ultimately.
But I'd value my time higher if my randomly allocated earnings per min was ever higher than 1sat.
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That's interesting. Normally, people adjust the value of their time according to their main source of income. I certainly hope that isn't 1 sat/minute for you.
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I see what you're saying and ofcourse, my time is worth far more than 1sat/min obviously. I was being facetious, about the value of sats, with 1 being higher because it's worth more than a cent or a penny in a fiat system backed by nothing and continually inflating and devaluing. May not be worth more in real terms now... But it very much could be.
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Slowly coming along and trying to embrace that Value4Value mentality, it is a slow progress from a century of fiat slavery :-) but I'm trying to turn of that mental calculator.... getting there methinks...
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That's great! In whatever value terms you want to use (time, grocery items, rent, etc.) how do you think of sats?
In other words, how do you determine if something is worth spending sats on or if the effort to earn sats is worthwhile?
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I don't have an actual number but I sure treat them as if they have a much higher value than the current exchange rate.
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Mentally I do 1,000 sats = 30 cents. Yes I am boring
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Is that because you use it regularly or do you expect the current valuation to hold for a while?
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tbh, my mental exchange rate is 1,000 sats = $1 so 1 sat is like 1 Korean Won I think
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That's certainly a lot closer to the current market exchange rate.
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I think its because I actually use it pretty often lmao. So my mental exchange rate is an average of what the exchange rate has been for at least the past few months.
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I figured responses would be quite different for people who are already using Bitcoin as a unit of account.
So, when you see something like a 5,000 sat reward that's basically $5 that can be used right now? For me, that looks like $50 to be used in some medium-term future.
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It seems like I treat anything less than 1000 sats as not worth thinking about which feels similar to my feelings about $0.25.
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Interesting. So, you're coming in under current market value? That's ironic for a leading figure in the Bitcoin movement.
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I think you're looking at this wrong. koob has so much bitcoin that 1000 sats is like nothing to him. There are multiple ways to think about this. How much you value bitcoin in relation to fiat and how much you value bitcoin in relation to how much bitcoin you already have. And probably more ways to think about it. How much you value vs. your time which might be the most hard core comparison. The time one is hard to measure.
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I would guess nearly all of you have more bitcoin than me.
This is mostly a time thing. I'm going to spend because it's good for bitcoin but I'm not going to spend a lot of time thinking about how much a couple hundred sats are worth at present.
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I wrote that to be a bit tongue in cheek FWIW.
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I know. It's just ambiguous enough that someone might assume it's true.
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I mean I have no idea how much bitcoin any of you have in relation to myself. I feel about the same as you do about it.
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You're a modern day Mises, then.
Supposedly, when he proposed to his wife he told her that he would spend his life writing about money, but he would never have much of it.
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The time one is more in line with what I do.
You're right that I inferred the conversion of 1000 sats = $0.25, when it could just be that he has way more thousands of sats than he has quarters.
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It's a mental threshold thing, not a how much I value bitcoin thing. It reduces my mental burden to consider <1000 sats not worth thinking about.
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Feel free to send me 999 sats. I promise to love them forever.
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Nice try, but it's not worth his time to think about 999 sats, so he'll never bother sending them to you.
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That's ok. I would have just sent him back 1k if he did.
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1sat=1sat
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That predictable tautology doesn't say anything about the prompt.
If you use something else as a metric, I'm interested in that too. How much is an hour of your time worth? Or a cup of coffee? I'm curious about valuation, in whatever terms you use.
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For the sats that I do spend, I see it as 19k sats = $10 supermarket gift card from Bitrefill
This $10 may not seem a lot but it means the world to me because it reflects how Stackers have zapped my writing. I’m a paid content creator! (I mean, I stack sats from other sources like fountain but the process is painfully slow, if you get what I mean.) Also, that $10 is used to buy milk powder (to make my wife happy), beer (to make myself happy) OR titbits (to make my son happy). In short, sats are my happy money (earned mostly from writing) that I use as happy money (to yield joy for me and my family)
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I've been treating SN as a closed system, but I actually think it's really interesting the way you pull a small revenue from the site. I'm glad we can treat you and your family to the occasional bit of extra happiness.
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I’m really intrigued by your thinking. You have never felt compelled to withdraw some sats and channel them to say, your girl’s Bitcoin savings account. (I don’t know why I assume you have a daughter. I apologise if I make the wrong assumption.)
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never felt compelled to withdraw some sats
I actually did withdraw some early on, but I don't recall for what (definitely nothing so responsible as your suggestion). I have since replenished those.
So far, I've been experimenting with how to best use the site and that's led directly to the large balance in my wallet. Also, by not taking anything out, it's easier to keep track of how I'm doing with my SN behavior.
At some point, I'm sure I'll experiment with a profit taking strategy. For now, though, I consider these sats well spent, because I value the site and the contributors so highly.
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I value sats as EXTREMELY valuable. On Monday, after I had stacked enough sats, I finally used my 1M sats to open a LN channel (very first one). I was so excited and I noticed that I said to my wife "Baby! I'm a millionaire!". Of course my wife, knowing the current Bitcoin value thought "I swear to God, this dude is insane.." but I have to say the millionaire feeling is very relaxing and reminding me that 1BTC = 1BTC, forever. It's future-proof to me so I never have enough. Honestly, I don't think about Bitcoin hitting $1M, if it does, it does, but I'd rather focus on saving for my future self and the true value is stuck inside me. I'm VERY specific about things I buy and I also want everything in Lightning now. I mean just imagine yourself being a millionaire because you bought Bitcoin. Most folks rather play the lottery.. That's nuts!
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I can relate to that, especially the part where the wife is thinking "I swear to God, this dude is insane.."
If you're spending sats over Lightning you must have some gauge of value, even if it isn't in dollar terms. How do you evaluate if something is too expensive?
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I do use my spending sats but I'm shifting my mind. I think it's fair to admit that all things are currently compared to USD in some fashion, but my sats are so precious that I carefully vet and filter ALL products that are irrelevant to my life at this point. So my spending is absolutely minuscule to say the least... Most folks can't even try because they're caught up in the webs of living beyond their means or just paycheck to paycheck.
I guess there really are steps to this..
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My mindset is that sats are priceless. Up and to the right as they say. 500 sats is about .35 USD today, but a 10x, 100x, or 1,000x in the future for the work of yesterday unlocks infinite possibilities!!! 🚀
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Try to reflect on how you actually treat it. I'm guessing that you'd pay 1000 sats for a new car, if that offer were on the table.
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I would say, that it depends on how much I need that car. I would probably prefer to first look at today’s value, my ability to replace what spend, and my time preference.
If I had 2BTC to buy a house today outright, would I spend it? Probably not because I know in another 4 years or so it will cost me less, in 8 years maybe only 10M sats?
I think that’s what makes Bitcoin so great. Every spend is a conscious thought. It forces us to be more disciplined and mindful of our consumerist mindsets.
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I would like to add, that even taking a “pay cut” from a fiat mining job, is often worth it, so maybe if I quantify it this way, I would say maybe I would offer the highest cut around 50%? But if it were something I enjoyed doing I may even give a larger discount for my services.
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That implies a present valuation of about $120k per BTC, which I think is 100 sats = 12 cents
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Ahhh! I like that valuation, it makes sense from that standpoint. I definitely think it’s worth more from a projection stand point. I think Bitcoin is criminally undervalued and that is only due to government regulation.
I think this next wave takes us to that $125-150K range so I can stand with your estimation.
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My personal valuation hasn't changed much in the past year. I still think sat-cent parity is a very reasonable valuation.
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I like it, but what increases value to me is that sats are borderless pennies!
If 1 sat is ever 1 USD, then wouldn't we pay a lot in fees (in fiat terms) to spend them? Is it possible to pay less than 1 sat for a LN transaction?
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I don't expect 1 sat to ever be worth $1 (2024 value), but my understanding is that the lightning network already allows fractional sat transactions.
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1 dollar is about 3300 sats. 1 take 100 and divide it by 30.
Which currencies of which countries in the world have an exchange rate that is worst than that? Venezuela, Zimbabwe. The sat is already competing with those currencies and has a better value.
If Bitcoin 10x 1 dollar is 330 sats.
Which currencies of which county in the world has an exchange rate worse than that? The sat will then compete with them. Cause the sat will be stronger.
If it 3,3 x again 1 dollar is 100 sats.
At that time I see some countries be in problem. Caribbean countries that I know.
Because 1 usd is around 100 -150 Jamaican dollar. It has been fluctuating around that rage.
So at that time 1 sat is 1 Jamaican dollar. Or more than 1 Jamaican dollar.
There are many currencies where 1 dollar is 100 of that currency.
So the moment bitcoin hits 1 million (10 x and then 3.3 x) 1 sat will be competing with all those currencies.
So I don’t only look at the dollar. I look at all the other currencies that have an exchange rate of 1 dollar is 100 x that exchange rate like Jamaica.
The sat is like a black hole sucking energy of all currencies that are not as strong as it.
As long as fiat continues to be printed by the central bank this will continue.
As a matter of fact the sat will be increasing in value against everything that can be printed easily, 1 hour of netflix, 5 minutes of song, 1 page with words (chat gpt can print this easily).
That is the trend!
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That's neat perspective.
What I was also interested in was how people subjectively value sats. When you're making a decision about whether a stacking activity is worthwhile, how do you do that? If you're considering a Lightning purchase, how do you decide if it's a good deal?
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I usually convert SATS to the most inflated fiat currencies, like Sierra Leonean Leone (SLL), so 1 SAT is huge and equals = 6.06 SLL! 😆
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What does that do for you?
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Here's a good tool from Coinbase to covert SATS to different fiat currencies: https://www.coinbase.com/converter/sats/usd
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If the Bitcoin accepted as World currency the 1 Satoshi price would at least 1000x value of the US dollar.
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True, but it wouldn't be 1000x the purchasing power of a 2023 dollar.
Is your frame of reference the eventual world reserve value? My back of the envelope estimate for that is roughly 1 Btc = $10 million (2023). That would make sats more like dimes than pennies.
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When I'm on sites that allow me to zap, I treat them as pennies But when I'm earning sats (hodl mode activated), I treat each sat as a dollar
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That's an interesting perspective. I think I may have been doing something like that until very recently.
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For me is 1 SAT = 1 cent in local currency which equals to ~0,0005 $ :)
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I count it as an euro too 1sat/1€
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That might happen sooner rather than later.
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So there is the opportunity to exploit this.
I can put a bounty on something here on SN with 50,000 sats as the bounty, and you Kool aid drinkers will (collectively) spend hours and hours trying to earn those sats because you believe this 50k says to be a handsome prize, worthy of the s(not significant) investment of your time.
And I didn't even spend $15 for those sats.
And this phenomena is not just here on SN. Look at on microlancer.io as another exhibit of this. Clients are hiring workers and paying literally pennies (worth of Bitcoin, at today's exchange rate), yet getting dollars (of value) in exchange.
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Just noticed a typo there ...
worth of the s(not significant) investment of your time
Should have been
worth of the (not insignificant) investment of your time
Typing with an on-screen keyboard really takes patience.
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I'm pretty sure I took your meaning, when I read it the first time. Cheers
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It's really not an exploit in the sense I think you're using it. Most of us want to see the Bitcoin economy grow, as well as expecting the $/sat exchange rate to grow. We're happy to do what seems like an excessive amount of work for sats that weren't super costly to you, because it's increasing Bitcoin adoption.
50k was a good choice of number to throw out, btw. I think it illustrates your point really well.
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I have the goal of buying at least 10k satoshis a day. The amount of dollars per day vary. I am retired tech guy (bitcoin boomer) so hard to make big puchases. I count sats and do not know the dollar value...just want the sats and not the bucks.
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I once heard somebody saying: divide everything by 21 million.
This means: the market cap of all stocks, market cap of all bonds, the market cap of all money in the world, the market cap of all minerals, all gold.
The total global population.
Divide everything by 21 million.
Then you will get the value of 1 bitcoin.
If you divide everything by (21 million times 100 million) you get the value of a sat.
Because all those items can grow and the number of sats or bitcoins cannot grow indefinitely, your sat or your bitcoin will grow.
Yes it can fluctuate in the short term.
The sat is like 1 meter or 1 kilo or 1 liter. It is not like 1 dollar.
Imagine that 1 meter would be changing all time. 1 meter now is less then 1 meter 10 years ago.
How would we measure things, roads, buildings? Everything would collaps.
That is the house of cards we have been building with fiat.
The 1 dollar, that everybody thinks is the 1 meter standard in the fiat real estate business and in the fiat road business and the fiat construction business is not stable.
It is not a measure like 1 kilo, 1 meter and 1 liter.
Imagine the FED of the Measure business, coming every quarter and saying: guys 1 meter is now 105 cm! And now next quarter we expect to stop increasing it. We only increase it with 1 cm. So it will be 106 cm!
Everybody would scream hell no. Every building would collaps.
These are laws we created, stardards.
During covid the Fed actually said: 1 meter is now 130 cm. He increased or devaluated the stardard by 30%.
It could also mean 70 cm. He dropped the value.
So that is why we need a uniform measure. Bitcoin or Sat.
Something that doesn’t fluctuate.
The people not understsnding this are living in a house of cards built with stones and measures that are changing constantly. Where 1 kilo, 1 meter and 1 liter are changing.
The house will therefore collaps.
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Unfortunately, there's no such thing as a unit of value that doesn't fluctuate, because value is subjective. People's preferences change all the time and every time that happens the relative exchange rates of everything in the economy shifts a little bit.
The contribution of a hard money is that its value (almost) only shifts on the demand side. The consistent supply makes for a more predictable unit of account and more stable prices.
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A lot more than what its currently worth
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Do you just operate on a vague sense that sats are going to be much more valuable in the future?
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Consciously / viscerally it feels like 1 penny per Sat, gut level it feels more like upwards of $1 USD per Sat in terms of my kids’ inheritance
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I like the multiple timeline thinking.
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1k sats as $1
Anything below 1k sats is valued at 0 or basically cents.
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I can see that. Hopefully, you'll have to revise upwards sooner rather than later.
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Sats are in the play money realm. Most tips are token amounts, even the biggest are fractions of a dollar's worth of value. I like to think of them at the ATH exchange rate or even something aspirational like $100k or $250k/btc.
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When I see 1000 sats in my wallet, I feel like a rich person because I know it will have more value in the future.
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I always mentally assign a 10x market value to any sats I acquire. I believe this is a conservative estimate but enough to inspire me to acquire as much as I can daily.
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I don't do a peg like that, but I am forecasting what my sats' value might be when I eventually use them. I also think my estimate is conservative, by as much as an order of magnitude, but that it might take a very long time to get to those higher ultimate values.
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I'm curious what people's mental exchange rate is for the value of sats.
I feel 100 sats is about $1. 👀
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1 sats is nothing more than half a cent. Bitcoin is just another dollar rising from the sidelines.
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10k sats is 10k sats. I dont need to know currect exchange rate and I know what 10k sats is worth.
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The point of the post was to find out what you think 10k sats are worth. I'm not particularly interested in the current exchange rate either.
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𝐇𝗼𝐰𝐝𝐲 𝐝𝗼 ? 🤠 👋 The future!
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1 sat = 1 sat
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I like to imagine that 1 Sat = .01 USD short term, but daydream of the day (maybe 15 years) 1 Sat = 1.00 USD. I was stressing myself out trying to collect 2, 5, 15 Sat online by earning with Lightning micro tasks (Sats4Likes), but had to take a step back and look at the current price, 1 dollar can get me around 3000 Sats. Hard to mentally balance stacking vs mental health. Anyone else experience this?
Every sat counts. I do quick math. 18000 sats for coffee is too much