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675 sats \ 9 replies \ @siggy47 28 Sep 2023 \ on: ETF pressure bitcoin
I just checked out the headlines from 2017 when I first got interested in bitcoin. The excitement then was the coming bitcoin options market. It got me energized.
I remember the El Salvador announcement. Everyone anticipated that bitcoin's price would skyrocket. I was excited.
Somehow the rocket ship never ignited.
I wouldn't get my hopes up about the dollar value of bitcoin when and if a spot ETF gets approved.
Just concentrate on stacking and doing your part to increase adoption.
We'll get there when we get there.
That's my two sats, anyway.
Not trying to spread hopium but just to put the numbers into context..
at it's peak the entire GDP of El Salvador was about $30 billion. BlackRock has assets under management of $9.42 trillion (with a T).
In other words, the entire GDP of El Salvador is 0.3% of BlackRock's assets under management.
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Yes. This is exactly what I'm saying. The numbers involved with an ETF are very, very different. Who knows how much of these numbers will be interested in a bitcoin ETF. But, the ease of anyone with an etrade account or any account to "get in" to bitcoin is formidable in my view. And those folks would be miniscule compared to institional money. Yes, it's not truly owning BTC because it's custodial holding, but the custodian must buy the BTC. Buy pressure.
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Well, remember they can hedge (where hedge funds get their name) by selling paper btc with their enormous fiat bags, with the ostensible rationale of limiting their market exposure in any one direction.
If you haven't had the chance yet, read this great article by Allen Farrington
:https://allenfarrington.medium.com/trust-me-bro-fb5a25964634
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I wasn't trying to compare the financial clout of ES versus BlackRock. The reason I mentioned it was to compare the emotional impact of the news items. I'm really thinking out loud, and I hope my negativity is unfounded. That being said, BlackRock's power scares me. They could play with BTC price- driving it up and down. Down to scare holders into selling, or drive it up to get lambo boys to cash out. They can suppress the price to aid their fiat investments or to curry government favors. They can completely control the hash rate.
Again, I hope everything I say is wrong.
In any event,we should all buy every sat we can afford right now to give them less to play with.
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Yep, this is the way.
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That's a really fair take, pretty much why I wrote about what my brain keeps telling me. The numbers involved with an ETF I think are just different. Admittedly, I don't know any off the top of my head but when I hear the numbers thrown around, they're huge, huge as in GDP of the USA, then China, then the Blackrocks (as far as money under management).
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You make good points. I know a huge post spot ETF rally would probably bring a lot of people into the space. But most of them will head for the exits come next bear market. Couple that with Larry Fink and BlackRock, who I don't trust and whose government connections run deep, and I have trouble seeing this as a positive.
Maybe I'm overly negative.
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I'd say you're spot on with how people will run when the bear comes. No doubt the "new money" from newbies will have cold feet when times get shaky. How many times have we seen this?! :)
Regarding Fink, I don't know too much about him, just that there's a large quantity of money involved.
I guess I'm thinking more long term. I see an initial boom, then a slow and maybe a pull back, then a bear and run. Then a pause. But as things grow more common and normal, really don't see a trend away from bitcoin over the years, but a trendline that moves toward more investment, even if slowly.
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I would agree with everything you said, but my one lingering fear is a coordinated government push to suppress the price long term like with gold and the big NY banks. It would be tougher to pull off with bitcoin, but they may try. Powerful interests will do everything possible to keep the fiat ponzi going.
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