tldr: Don't be discouraged if a price spike after an ETF approval is temporary.
We've all heard the "gradually and then suddenly" line. We all know where it's from, right? I'll admit, I didn't until I just looked it up. I knew it was from Hemingway, but I thought it was in answer to how he became famous. Wrong. It's from The Sun Also Rises (my second favorite Hemingway book, behind A Farewell to Arms).
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
I'm not writing a book review here. Rather, I wanted to discuss the bitcoin ETF that all signs seem to point toward imminence. I feel it's imminent...you can't hold back the tide. Recent comments by Blackrock CEO Larry Fink here: https://cryptopotato.com/blackrock-ceo-larry-fink-shares-thoughts-on-a-bitcoin-btc-bull-run/ More specifically, I want to address the feeling that an ETF (or ETFs) approval will send things mooning. We all saw the euphoria over the false X-Tweet recently...the sudden spike and the sudden fall. The easy conclusion is, "When the ETF is really approved, we'll moon!"
I'd caution on that. If and when a bitcoin ETF (or more...giving the green light to more than one at the same time seems plausible to me), is approved, it would not surprise me to see an initial price spike. But, it would also not surprise me to see a quick pull back.
In my view, people who react to an ETF's approval are people who are already "in the game," aware of and knowledgeable of bitcoin. To me, this is largely not who an ETF targets. If you're reading this, you're on Stacker News and you know that owning shares of a bitcoin ETF is not the same as owning bitcoin. What an ETF does is it opens investment opportunities to those people with traditional investment avenues, who aren't interested in self-custody, and who simply wish to tell their broker to "get some bitcoin." In my view, there's a lot, a LOT of money that falls in that category. So, gradually, then suddenly when the ETF is approved, then gradually again.
tldr: Don't be discouraged if a price spike after an ETF approval is temporary.