A win would be if every bitcoiner buys a S9 and starts mining bitcoin to decentralize mining operations. Join a smaller pool or do solo mining (lottery). Use the S9 as a heating.
Did the math recently as I live in a cold climate...
An S9 iirc mines about 4-8 cents per kilowatt hour depending on assumptions.
Now, also assuming you could duct it well so that it delivered heat as quietly and efficiently to living space as possible, you have to compare your electric rates vs. the cost of other heating sources like oil/propane/natgas on a BTU basis.
What I found is that, on a BTU basis, electricity as a national average is a much more expensive heating source than fossils. So much so that the 4-8c per kwh gets you doesn't make up for it.
Plus, you're depreciating the miner. You could have just bought coin instead of the miner too.
As a heater, it rarely makes sense to run it 24x7, heat is typically thermostatically controlled.
Therefore, it's only rational if you have a usecase for a 24x7 heater in a place with abnormally cheap electricity rates and higher than normal fossil rates.
This makes sense if you can choose between oil/propane/natgas a the primary source of energy where you live. In my suburb, I have district heating as the default or electricity for a heat pump. I have the latter + e-radiators as "boosters" (+ fireplace) and a highly thermal insulated building with ventilation unit. Now it makes suddenly total sense to run a miner and have bitcoin as "waste product", believe it or not.
You need to replace the 2 default 120mm fans with 140mm Noctua silent fans and operate the S9 at lower watts. I run the S9 with 750W @ 9.7 TH/s and it's not loud at all.
Yes, nice blockclock. Shows me sats/vb and the fiat price. Doesn't earn you any sats. A S9 with 13TH/s earns you a few sats at least and works as a heating.
This depends on the thermal insulation (my outside walls are 30cm think with mineral wool insulation) and quality of your house and windows to keep the heat inside. I have a ventilation unit that recycles the heat with a heat pump. Any additional heat is added as per design with electricity or for the extreme cold days I have a fireplace.
You're missing the point of the S9 as heater.
I agree, if you have efficient heating in your house already, it's definitely not worth it.
The point of the S9 is to replace an existing resistive heating source.
Of course replacing a heat pump is not a good use for this.
I live in Canada and as mentioned have $0.13/KWh (first 1350 KWh are at $0.095) rate. My house is kept warm with a wood stove and resistive heaters. An approved heat pump costs in the high thousands, close to $10k installed. Only 6-7 months of the year of use makes that investment damn near a decade to pay off, if it cuts my current bill by 70%.
But yeah, at $0.60/KWh, it makes way more sense to pay for heat pump install.
Get an old S9 and run it for as long as you can. $120 or so + fan upgrades. If you can replace a heater purchase you're at no loss.
600w and 40% fan speed is quiet and gets you 7 TH/s with enough heat for a sizeable room.
It's not a for profit operation, but will pay for itself over a couple years, even in a $0.10-$0.15/KWh grid, IF you can substitute it for a heater.
Here's my setup in the works. I'm planning on building my own case/box for it.
Ouch!
I guess I shouldn't have bothered to put an electricity rate in that post. It kinda doesn't matter if you're replacing a heater that you use anyway.
The upfront cost, and time it takes to pay that off is really only a function of how much and how hard you run the miner.
Treat it like a heater that gives you a small rebate on electricity you would use anyway (that's the important part - use anyway) It's not a miner looking for profit.
It's like resistive heating with a negligible discount, not standard heating, which, given which century we're in, would be a heat pump if you stick to electric. Unless you live in the United States of Gas Guzzlers where energy is dirt cheap and it makes more sense to burn it like there is no tomorrow than to replace the cardboard walls of your house with something that actually retains some heat.
I use natural gas in the house and a heat pump in the outbuilding, both of which cost roughly 1/4 of what resistive heating does.
The profitability calculator says my profits from running an S9 would be -$13 per day, which is a loss of $4745 annually. That's twice as much as my annual utility bills, which include heating, air con (not much as my climate is on the cool side), cooking, lighting, TV, PCs and a bunch of other things.
There is absolutely no incentive for me to replace my climate control with something that only heats, costs more to run and makes a lot of noise on top of that.
Really, energy is much more expensive in many places than where you live, also heating is not needed everywhere, e.g. people who live in the tropics may need cooling and no heating at all.
It'll be when Blackrock gets rugged.
Coinbase loses the keys and a stupid amount of bitcoin becomes an immovable object.....another monument like Satoshi's stash.
ETF approval is the obvious one but feels like we have all accepted that one.
Tbh I am hoping this cycle we get bitcoin divergence from the shitcoins. Seems like the only shitcoin narrative left is stablecoins which isn't one that will draw speculators.
Maybe not next major win, but eventually a Big Tech Company pegs their product price in bitcoin. This is to say, priced in bitcoin with a hefty discount to the retail sticker price in usd. Eg:
Tesla Model 3 - 0.25 btc
Apple Macbook - 0.05 btc
Needless to say this happens after the Big Company has stacked a lot of bitcoin on their balance sheet.
Something that makes self custody easily accessible, and safe for everyone, not just those willing to guard their own keys.
I feel like there's going to have to be some level of institutional trust somewhere.
Maybe the ETF is that... Which is not great, cause that's full trust on a lot of levels.
I forget the company name, but there's someone that does a multi sig set up with you. Kinda a like a backup in case you screw up and lose your keys.
I don't think we can expect even 5% global adoption before something like this is in place.
This is a ways off IMO for the masses. Most people aren’t going to learn and deal with all the hurdles that anyone, regardless of their involvement or competence in any cryptocurrency, will not put in that effort, time, etc.
Until many of these crypto specific activities are invisible, meaning the friction has been removed and the user doesn’t even realize they are using a wallet for example, mass adoption won’t occur.
That all said, we share the same perspective on how important that solution is. Massive opportunity for someone to solve it!
Etf will be weaponized just like the gold etf will suppress price somewhat I see like the gold etf did however this is more scarce so it'll only be a matter of time before price rises unless etf increases its paper assets over holdings then I could see a decoupling or an attempt to surprise btc price
They may actually be incentivised to elevate price for a short duration, say 6-12 months. With an ETF in play. Attract interest, discourage custody and then tug on the rug.
A) easier to tax
B) easier to relinquish custody from citizens
C) helps dig them out of their debt burden
D) helps recapitalise a ‘new system’
Maybe the difference between gold ETF and Bitcoin ETF here is that we can audit the real supply easily.
I don't fully understand how the $$ settled futures ETFs can manipulate BTC price, but how will the spot ETFs sell more BTC than they own if we know how much BTC they own? It won't be hard to call them out on that if they try to get sneaky.
The could dilute it like they do stocks 🤔 the splits if they say they want to give people more exposure to bitcoin at a cheaper price they will be the abitures of truth for paper bitcoin we shall see how it plays put and what changes they propose to their paper coin
Ya sure they do, I meant like officially they would say "What sanctions...?" But that would mean that their govt has no power either, so I will just keep dreaming...lol We definitely need another El Salvador
I'd already be happy if all major Bitcoin conferences were to make it a standard to accept Bitcoin for all payments at and around their events, as seen in San Salvador, Riga or Prague.
Adoption, adoption, and more adoption. When all the merchants will show the sign "Bitcoin accepted here" next to their PoS terminal as it's the most natural thing on Earth, that would be the biggest win imho.
Itcompany