Bitcoin Prediction Market \ stacker news ~bitcoin

610 sats \ 28 comments \ @Undisciplined 6 Nov 2023 bitcoin

For those who are unaware FreeBitcoin has a prediction market that mostly covers sports, but also asks a few-end of-month price predictions.

This bounty goes to whoever gets closest to the end-of-month exchange rate for Bitcoin and USD.

I'll also zap everyone who says anything interesting about short-term expectations for Bitcoin vs fiat exchange rates.

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1600 sats \ 1 reply \ @kurszusz 21 Nov 2023

My guess is $36.5k at November end.

BUT...

I except higher prices (around $40k or more) at the middle of December, because of FOMC meeting on 13th December, and most probably interest rates will remain the same.

No matter if rates are low or high, if the market / FED monetary politic is "predictible" =>risk on assets price are jumping (sometimes exponentially)

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 6 Dec 2023

It sure looks like your crystal ball is working.

190 sats \ 1 reply \ @SN023 8 Nov 2023

My guess $35K at month end.

5 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 8 Nov 2023

That's what I guessed too. When in doubt, trust the Efficient Markets Hypothesis.

308 sats \ 1 reply \ @antic 7 Nov 2023

End of the month is a bit myopic in the scheme of things but I’ll say $40K

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 7 Nov 2023

That's similar to how I felt.

305 sats \ 1 reply \ @Zepasta 6 Nov 2023

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39 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 6 Nov 2023

It sure does, but it's been around a long time and does a lot of business. If it is a scam, it's a pretty long con.

305 sats \ 4 replies \ @grayruby 6 Nov 2023

Considering shitcoins are rallying right now I am going to say 31,500

20 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 6 Nov 2023

Two votes for a price decline

At some point all this new money printing has to lead to a price increase.

305 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 6 Nov 2023

Yes but when I see eth ripping and even crazier xrp and other shitcoins ripping I just assume we are due for a sizeable pullback to wash out the undue silliness. I don't really care either way to be honest. Actually a pullback would be nice, I have been struggling lately to stay on pace to meet my year end stacking goals. Good thing I front loaded a lot of it early in the year.

20 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined OP 6 Nov 2023

Interesting. I don't pay any attention to the altcoins. Are people just yield chasing as conventional investments lag?

305 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 6 Nov 2023

Just the regular crypto traders with broken paradigms who believe because bitcoin rallied all the other coins must go up as well. So they put on a ton of leverage and try to chase gains in the altcoins. It's the most fiat, highest time preference thing one can do but it some ways I don't blame them as pushing further and further out the risk curve is an imbedded incentive of the current system.

I am not a fan of Pomp but I did listen to his episode with Lyn and she talked about this as well.

305 sats \ 1 reply \ @Satoshis 6 Nov 2023

Probably 33000 around!

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 6 Nov 2023

Why a decline?

305 sats \ 1 reply \ @kristapsk 6 Nov 2023

I sometimes miss bitbet.us by Mircea Popescu. Biggest problem - it was fully custodial. But parimutuel betting is interesting approach.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 6 Nov 2023

I'm still getting used to not knowing the odds in advance. The bonus they give early bets is a clever way to keep everyone from waiting until the last minute.

305 sats \ 4 replies \ @nemo 6 Nov 2023

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305 sats \ 2 replies \ @WeAreAllSatoshi 6 Nov 2023

nemo has a typo lol @ekzyis

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @nemo 6 Nov 2023

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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 6 Nov 2023

Thanks. Hopefully, I spelled it right in the previous post about this prediction market.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 6 Nov 2023

I've shouted out ezkyis before about this prediction market. It uses a very similar mechanism to one we discussed for SN.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 21 Nov 2023

I forgot about this post and in the name of fairness I will no longer be accepting guesses.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @NigerianBitcoiner 6 Nov 2023

When you hate CSS with passion :)

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @birdeye21 6 Nov 2023

bitcoin could go up, down, OR sideways against fiat in the short term. My hunch? One of those three will happen.