pull down to refresh

As markets push higher, I feel it's time to utter the forbidden words before it's too late. There will be a point in time when bitcoin reaches a new ATH, and when it does - history will repeat itself. If you are here right now make sure you stand on the right side of it.
In my experience, the HODL sentiment is pushed onto new retail investors, by other new retail investors. There is a reason HODL is a meme on reddit, and not a strategy at Blackrock. The reality of the situation is that as BTC reaches a new ATH, the smart money will start to slowly dump their bags on the poor souls who just jumped the bandwagon, but doesn't know the next station is the final stop.
Not adhering to HODL doesn't mean you don't believe in the long term value of BTC, quite the contrary. All it means, is that your are objective enough to realize crypto is characterized by an extremely cyclical nature in this emerging stage of its lifecycle. Therefore, selling at least some of your BTC is not a goodbye, it's simply a see-you-in-a-bit.
So whatever you do, don't ride your profits all the way up, just to ride them all the way back down again. Literally any profit-taking strategy is better than HODL when things are obviously getting way out of hand. And if you don't believe it's possible to spot a bubble, charts like this beg to differ. Heck you, could even use the "if-your-nana-asks" theory to know when to run for the hills.
I have a DCA-exit strategy using that chart (AlphaSquared Risk model) which worked well last time, and if you haven't already - a $37.000 BTC is your cue to start preparing.
This post will stir controversy now, and at the point of Bitcoin's new ATH, it'll be considered blasphemy. So make of it what you will, but I've been around since 2016, and this story repeats itself like a broken record.
I strongly suspect we will see a fake top around ~$120K that will lead to people thinking they are smart by selling all of their Bitcoin to buy back 2x their stack at $60K, only to watch the price move to $360K, which makes them FOMO buy back 1/3 of what they had instead of 2x—because it’s clearly going to $1M next and they think they will maximize fiat returns. This is how Bitcoin gets distributed rather than consolidated.
If you have to spend some bitcoin to pay for dreams (buying a business, buying a house), that’s one thing, and timing it can be an art, but trying to outsmart the market usually ends in getting manipulated out of position by the bigger funds that can control the price against you.
All that said, DCA in and DCA out (over a certain excess return APY) is also my strategy for over-allocating in.
It’s the people who try to time the market by going all in and all out that get super rekt.
reply
I'm suspecting smth like this as well. Selling of weak hands just before 100k, for the price to then snap back up above 100k after a short consolidation.
reply
You assume history will repeat itself. Last week the U.S bond auction was close to failing. The "pristine asset" is no longer pristine. Moodys just cut the U.S. credit rating. Yet you remain confident that your dollar will be able to resupply your bitcoin come next cycle? Meanwhile, you pay taxes to the U.S. on all your fiat profits. At some point your plan will stop working. When the music stops, you had better hope you can find a chair.
reply
This ☝️.
reply
The simplest is the best. Over the years I've been buying bitcoin when there's blood in the streets (bear DCA) and spending when I'm in the green.
reply
I run away from anyone who feels they can time the market like you. It simply doesn’t work as the market is irrational. If you just buy and hold Bitcoin you will outperform all markets. Yes, a DCA increase in bear market will pay huge dividends! Next….
reply
Timing the market is so hard unless you're a fulltime trader. DCA and buy every major dip is a decent strategy that won't have you losing hair/sleep.
reply
Sorry, my time machine & my crystal ball are both on the fritz.
Think I'll just play it safe and hodl, instead of guessing where the tops and bottoms are.
reply
You think you're being smart and mature.
Reality is you are just advocating a particular shitcoin trading strategy you use out of degeneracy and greed in hopes of getting a bit more bitcoin.
You haven't learned until you get rekt. However, don't be a pussy now, do it on fucking 10x leverage if you're so confident about how the markets will move or shut the fuck up.
reply
You sir is an idiot. Timing the market has never worked and will never work.
Sell it all now and go buy ETH
reply
I prefer to hodl.
reply
So you want me to dump my bags. But into what? Why would I re enter the the burning building?
reply
everybody: do you🤙🏽😊
reply
History is not always an indication of the future and while I agree it is likely that if we get an insane new ATH it will come back down, but taking profit in fiat when you have the most sound money ever is like taking profit in turkish lira when you have access to dollars. I simply use bitcoin as a savings account and keep what I need in dollars to pay bills. Trying to time markets is a fool's game unless you want to commit to it full time
reply
Large funds have teams of analysts with full-time jobs dedicated to timing the market. If a large fund has a -15% quarter, they lose additional assets as clients move to another fund that is more conservative.
A pleb has no time to focus on timing the market correctly. When they try to time it, they usually end up with fewer sats. Pleb has full-time job doing real work. If a pleb has a -80% quarter he is still only responsible for his own capital. A pleb can survive -80% while a fund cannot.
Seems like you have spent the time to find a trading strategy you think will be profitable. Good luck, but don't expect everyone to put in the same effort as you have. For most, they're better off putting that effort into their craft than larping as a wall street trader with their retirement funds.
Plebs should not act like hedge funds for the same reason hedge funds don't act like plebs.