249 sats \ 4 replies \ @siggy47 30 Nov 2023 \ parent \ on: Cycles and inevitability bitcoin
What I'm talking about is something that shows that when the price is stable, more people decide to use bitcoin. @elvismercury brought up a good point that this may be the case in developing countries, and especially if the local fiat is experiencing hyperinflation. We can't be certain, though, since USD stable coins seem to get adopted at least as frequently in those situations. Again, I'm just guessing, and that's why I would like evidence.
One other thing. I am pretty sure that at high prices, bitcoin has historically been anything but stable. During extreme bubbles and crashes there is a lot of volatility.
One other thing. I am pretty sure that at high prices, bitcoin has historically been anything but stable. During extreme bubbles and crashes there is a lot of volatility.
Yep. That's another reason for my assumption that, in terms of its actual use as money (e.g., a in its guise as a medium of exchange on relatively short timescales) the best time for most people is during those boring lulls.
Its usage at other times is inherently speculative, regardless of the language people want to employ -- if you're accumulating because you think you'll be able to use it as money in a decade, that's an investment.
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Maybe I'm thinking far beyond my lifetime, but this is how I see it (it's not my hypothesis, but I can only find an obscure source)
If the price drops $5,000 today - sure, all hell breaks loose.
However, if it drops $5,000 when it's 20x what it is today - a $5,000 drop still looks like calm water.
Now, that obscure source, BiTcOiN eCoNoMiSt Charlie Allnut - who was years ahead of his time1.
Now all that little choppin', them's shallas miss
It might make sense - if it doesn't, it might raise a smile at least
¯_ (ツ) _/¯
Footnotes
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Bogart to Hepburn charting the water in The African Queen (1951) ↩
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Great movie. Of course volatility has to be measured by percentage moves, not actual fiat value moves.
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Bogart mainly thought with fiat - Pounds, Shillings and Pence - you know, LSD
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