pull down to refresh

Over the past few months, we have seen how the BRICS countries are gaining ground. An energetic bloc is forming, which will soon play out its geopolitical power via the currency markets, break away from the swift system and declare war on the Petrodollar. We see in the accumulation of gold how the central banks involved are trying to build up a capital base beyond fiat money and thus establish mutual trust in their own currencies.
The biggest act, however, will be Saudi Arabia's unpegging from the Petrodollar. As in the case of Russia a few years ago, Saudi Arabia is now being provided with dollar swap lines by China. These are loans that are later to be repaid in yuan to cushion the potential shock of an embargo and at the same time help the Chinese currency to spread further and thus become more important internationally. We are already seeing pressure on the oil market hitting Saudi Arabia with a budget deficit. In the last week we have seen several meetings between Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran, all aimed at installing this new commodity trading space.
The countries involved will soon have integrated a financial system that can absorb external shocks and they will exit the general dependence on the dollar. The rude awakening will come when it becomes clear that the OPEC countries' production cuts will have consequences in the medium term. Do not count on cheap energy for too long a time!
Regarding the yuan, I feel like China is in a race against the clock. Internationally they are spreading its influence as a second reserve currency. At the same time, the don't gave the ability like the U.S. to eschew exports. They need to keep the yen weak to keep those exports, especially in the midst of this real estate collapse.
reply
But with the credit swaps they are extending the yuan. In a way they are trying to repeat the same former currency leaders did. Maybe they fear an inflation shock coming later on because of ongoing liquidity injections??
reply
BRICS will take global power off the U.S by making policies that render the dollar useless in their economy
reply
That's what they try by integrating all these energy rich countries into their bloc.
reply
50 sats \ 1 reply \ @xz 11 Dec 2023
Gold seems to be the least worst thing to hang on to for a central bank. Funny that it is rarely used as cross border settlement, and is rarely verifiably audited.
I guess the only metric to assess whether you'd trade energy reserves for something else, besides central bank holdings of gold, would be state-owned bank loans, which everyone is fudging fast as they can.
Otherwise why would you sell energy for paper? Better to trade/sell energy for tangible goods and commodities.
reply
Yes, You're right. We'll see if the BRICS can avoid the paper currency trap.
reply
I don't expect the BRICS nations to be able to comanage a currency any better than the Europeans have, but I do expect it to be a major (perhaps existential) blow to the dollar in the near term.
Is that similar to how you see it or do you think I'm misjudging it?
reply
I see the USD as no.1 currency in the long and a lot of Fiat currencies collapsing in it before the USD comes into trouble. But do not forget: whatever these BRICS are brewing: it will be the most powerful energy bloc and so their trading vehicle will be backed by energy. The Eurozone literally has nothing except their pseudo morals. They use the climate apocalypse to force others to shut down their energy like coal or gas to stay at the geopolitical table of power.
reply
So. ultimately, you see the dollar coming out the other side of the BRICS challenge more or less unscathed?
What do you expect to be the biggest long term impact of the BRICS?
reply
The USD will be fine for many years to come if You get rid of the Obiden-clans.... with SOFR there is the next step made to independency from failing European institutions.
Long term impact to the BRICS:
  1. capital movements to a strong USA and attractive conditions for partnering with this reborn hub of liberty.
  2. India as the typical ''swing state'' of the region could partner with the US to oppose China one day.
  3. Currency units are instable and always fail
reply