Will World War 3 Start Next Year? \ stacker news ~oracle

447 sats \ 17 comments \ @ek 10 Dec 2023 oracle

unsolicited prediction by ChatGPT: unlikely

100 sats \ 12 replies \ @siggy47 10 Dec 2023

I know it's just for fun, but who will decide if a conflict qualifies as a world war?

192 sats \ 10 replies \ @SwearyDoctor 10 Dec 2023

historians, years later. They might well decide that it started years earlier with regional wars that will draw in more countries. Also, we're hung up on the idea of large land wars involving great powers as a "world war", which might not be what the next one looks like. Also, the last ones were quite Europe-centered; WW1 was only a World War because Europe thought itself The World...

100 sats \ 8 replies \ @siggy47 10 Dec 2023

Yes, of course. That's why I asked. I meant specifically with regard to a prediction market wager.

43 sats \ 6 replies \ @SwearyDoctor 10 Dec 2023

yeah, the prediction market thing only really works if you have uncontested assignments of value or decide by whose assessment it will trigger. "When will bitcoin reach 100000 on gemini" only delivers a clear value only because you specified who gets to decide it. Without the qualifier, do you won if it reaches it only on bitfinex but nowhere else?

This breaks down.. well, almost immediately, especially if we take this whole thing here seriously and don't think that a Knowledge Pope gets to say it for everyone. What's a world war will remain contested for decades. Some historians and political scientists are already calling what we have now a World War. The point is not if they're right or wrong; World War isn't something that just is. It's a contested ascription. It's never clearly right or wrong, it's a contested world out there.

0 sats \ 5 replies \ @ek OP 10 Dec 2023

What's a world war will remain contested for decades.

First time I hear of this

64 sats \ 1 reply \ @SwearyDoctor 11 Dec 2023

It often comes up in media that the first world war was of course not called the first world war when it happened, but they get hung up on the word "first". Time travel movie trope, "ah, this is the first world war!" - "what do you mean, first..."

But it also wasn't called a, or the, world war; it was the "great war" at the time. It only became the first world war when the other one happened, and historians tied them together as two sequential conflicts. The second one now made a new template, and because of that, we only even think of the possibility of another "world war". There were conflicts before both could quite well qualify as conflicts of a similar scope than the first one. The Seven Years War extended to north america, as did the napoleonic wars. Ancient wars spanned the width of the known world. They weren't called a world war because historians hadn't come up with that yet, and it was never applied retroactively, though it well could have been. It's all... wobbly.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek OP 11 Dec 2023

I believe it was also called "the war to end all wars".

6 sats \ 2 replies \ @siggy47 11 Dec 2023

Oh, it's true. World War 1 wasn't called World War 1 until after WW2, I think.

43 sats \ 1 reply \ @SwearyDoctor 11 Dec 2023

we wrote our posts at the same time! :) exactly.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @siggy47 11 Dec 2023

Yours was more extensive, though.

reply on another page

43 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek OP 10 Dec 2023

next prediction market idea: is bitcoin going to pump or crash during WWIII?

lol :)

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek OP 10 Dec 2023

Also, the last ones were quite Europe-centered

yeah, I would welcome some variety to that, lol :)

43 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek OP 10 Dec 2023

I know it's just for fun

"just for fun", lol :) such an American thing to say, lol :)

but who will decide if a conflict qualifies as a world war?

good point, i think i thought of any war that is not a proxy war between any two countries that are equipped with (nuclear) ICBMs.

10 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 12 Dec 2023

I agree with ChatGPT, because WWIII has probably already started.

426 sats \ 1 reply \ @ek OP 17 Dec 2023

You mean a cold WWIII because of Russia <> Ukraine and China <> America over Taiwan? Not a hot WWIII?

334 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 17 Dec 2023

No, I think it's quite likely that when historians look back, they'll date WWIII as starting with Russia/Ukraine or Israel/Palestine. If the American coalition loses, 9/11 might even be taken as the start date of a very long international conflict that eventually drew the rest of the world in.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TNStacker 11 Dec 2023

Already started. These things take time (years to truly develop), but the history books will talk about the Sahel region of Africa, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Gaza, and Yemen as the earlier conflicts of WW III.