Will the dollar increase in value? Hyperdollarisation coming?
369 sats \ 10 comments \ @taxd 8 Jun 2022 bitcoin
Unpopular opinion.
Since stablecoins solve most of the problems that Bitcoin solves but without the volatility I suspect they will take over for quite some time. The network effect will favour USD-stablecoins (USD-SC) at the expense of all other currencies.
I suspect this will lead to an expensive deflationary USD and all other (alt)-currencies going quickly to zero. Despite manic printing of USD by the Fed.
Maybe the state in e. g. Europe-Russia-China can stop this by force, but I am not sure. For sure the US will like it highly despite some controlproblems.
Thoughts?
PS I know perfectly well that SCs has many problems. Inflation, censorship, problematic blockchains, centralisation, ... . But most people don't care about this. DS
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156 sats \ 0 replies \ @nout 8 Jun 2022
Zeihan predicts multiple things:
  • Dollar getting much stronger compared to any other currency, but still with really high inflation over next 5+ years.
  • China will collapse in the next 10 years, especially because of demographics - they are losing millions of working people every year (which is the same for most other countries, USA+Mexico are not in such a bad situation yet).
  • There is going to be a massive famine, especially in Africa, for combination of reasons
    • Current grains are stuck in Russia and Ukraine and are already starting to miss on the market
    • Ukraine is not going to plant enough for next season.
    • Because the oil delivery from Russia and Ukraine is getting stuck and becoming weaponized, there won't be enough of fertilizers made and delivered around the world.
    • USA doesn't care about establishing oil routes anymore, since it became self sustainable especially thanks to shale oil.
    • So this is bound to result in a massive famine with a 500+ millions of people dying.
  • USA is self sustainable in terms of food (it exports 30%)
If any of this is correct, then yes - USD will perform the best out of fiats, but this also screams like a massive opportunity for Bitcoin.
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103 sats \ 0 replies \ @nerd2ninja 8 Jun 2022
Transaction fees for stablecoins are ironically higher than Bitcoin right now, but lets pretend they do see broader adoption. Stable coins still use the private/public key address system for sending and recieving payments that Bitcoin does and that could be a barrier to Bitcoion adoption that a stablecoin entry point could help solve.
However, I would maintain the opinion that the other aspects you mention in your PS, would cause people to migrate from stablecoins to Bitcoin since the technical barrier is no longer an issue for a stablecoin user.
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342 sats \ 0 replies \ @tomlaies 8 Jun 2022
Since stablecoins solve most of the problems that Bitcoin solves
It doesn't! People still get robbed of their spending power.
Bitcoin solves exactly two things:
  1. Decentralization
  2. Hard money
Stablecoins are def. not 2 and probably neither 1.
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6 sats \ 0 replies \ @EnormousPony 8 Jun 2022
Nice try Jerome Powell
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3 sats \ 0 replies \ @TheBTCManual 8 Jun 2022
I think the US dollar will increase relative to other fiat currencies simply because the race to debase has to continue, as 1 country debases they get an advantage to export and increase need for dollars locally, so as all these countries blow up their currencies value moves to these offshore dollars, like the eurodollar market, and these stablecoin markets.
It remains to be seen if stablecoins will start to create a bigger "eurodollar" market worldwide but it seems like its trending in that direction.
What I am wondering about is the Russia, Asia Africa market aren't too keen on dollar swaps and they might set up their own swap lines which could buck this trend, I mean they have no need for dollars trading between themselves seems like unnecessary to involve it if they can create direct exchanges or use a neutral money gold or bitcoin.
I think for now dollar goes higher, but I cant say for how long it lasts or when the alt currency/bitcoin market starts to eat its lunch
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @faithandcredit 8 Jun 2022
There are reports of people in poorer countries preferring stablecoins over for example BTC. But the problem is they have to use things like LUNA because it has the cheapest fees and then end up get rugged. So its possible that more people have said fuck it and just stick with BTC despite the volatility. It also has a nice and relatively secure protocol that allows cheap payments (LN) which afaik Stablecoins dont have so far. So if i had to pick which one was ready for mainstream adoption, BTC or Stablecoins i would say BTC but i could be biased.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @relc 8 Jun 2022
"Since stablecoins solve most of the problems that Bitcoin solves but without the volatility"
thank you for playing! want to play again?
do not worry. it ll be fine. keep up the spirit - without you it would not be the same. thank you for beeing with us.
it can be a rough ride from time to time. you are on the right track.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @beb0 8 Jun 2022
The only thing strong about the dollar is the violence behind it. The entire system is based on debt and it can't continue forever without breaking.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @KingZing 8 Jun 2022
USD will not be deflationary. The FED goal is to maintain a strong economy through USD, that means low inflation, high employment and high economic growth.
But FX value-wise, the USD has been performing extremely well for the past decade. That's while some would scream FED money printer, the economy is even more important than money itself and the US is consistently the best performing economy across the world (along with military strength and geopolitical influence etc)
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @IAMilluminatiK 8 Jun 2022 freebie
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