Hodl your horses on ETF and halvening hopium
1189 sats \ 5 comments \ @crrdlx 20 Dec 2023 bitcoin
The expected bitcoin ETF and for-sure halvening are bullish for bitcoin for sure. And, count me in on the excitement here.
  • I wrote about the ETF recently, here saying it's coming.
  • I wrote here that the ETF will "open bitcoin" to tons of legacy many held by many, many people who will easily be able to put their money into BTC via legacy financial tools.
  • I wrote about the 2020 halving back then, here saying to temper enthusiasm.
Despite reason for enthusiasm nowadays, let's keep it real and sober things a bit.
First, regarding the halving or halvening, my thoughts are twofold: (1) any price adjustment will be baked in already because this is such a known, predictable event. The price did not skyrocket then (see chart below). Expecting an overnight, rocket launch green candle seems unrealistic to me again now. (2) however, long term, this will be bullish for bitcoin. How can it not? Lower bitcoin emission is simple "tight money" monetary policy...deflation (i.e., increased value).
The last halving was May 11, 2020
Secondly, regarding the ETF, this seems trickier to flesh out as to what might happen. (Because, well, nothing like it has ever happened before.) My best guess...the day of or after the expected ETF approval announcement, there will be a price spike due to exuberance, then a correction. Like New Years Eve jubilation and New Years Day hangover. But, then, I feel there will be growth going forward.
Summary
The ETF and halvening are both bitcoin bullish. But, don't be discouraged if we're not on the moon the next day. Patience.
write
preview
related posts
10 sats \ 1 reply \ @343pg 20 Dec 2023
An aside but I’ve long been rather triggered by the use of the term “halvening” rather than halving. Despite the fact that people can call it what they like and I shouldn’t care.
However.. having googled it, it appears halven is a word with history
https://quod.lib.umich.edu/m/middle-english-dictionary/dictionary/MED19880#:~:text=(a)%20To%20divide%20(sth,number)%2C%20divide%20by%20two.
As for Bitcoin price , let’s have the halving, the Bitcoin ETF approved and then Bitcoin at $10k for a bit to shake out anyone who thinks they can trade ahead of this stuff.. could happen!
reply
50 sats \ 0 replies \ @crrdlx OP 21 Dec 2023
For some reason, I like halvening, I think because it sounds to me like a happening. Kind of like hodl...does it (sorta) rhyme with throttle or yodel? I've used both at various times.
reply
51 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 20 Dec 2023
One thing bitcoin teaches you is that people's near term predictions often fail. This is why I often say "Stay humble, stack sats". Just keep your head and keep stacking. Bitcoin has a way of humbling people, exposing people, and teaching those ready to learn.
reply
10 sats \ 0 replies \ @Ice9 20 Dec 2023
ETF thing definitely seems assured. It almost seems TOO assured. Or is it just because we're in this space and really pay attention? A big part of me is just waiting for them to deny it. Do BlackRock et al really want it? Just playing along to generate hype only to slam it shut. Maybe not. Maybe they do want it...another avenue for fee generation. And if it is assured and they know it, do they really wait until approval to start buying? That seems pretty amateur hour. But I guess if they don't really care about the price, just hype and fees for managing, then maybe they do just wait and start buying after approval.
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @xz 20 Dec 2023
Was listening to Bitcoin and . . . recently, the point was made that an ETF is a conduit for those that don't want to actually hold it but just want exposure, or divest from cash (as only cash is being accepted.) What a surprise!
This may likely take away some potential direct involvement with Bitcoin. I think weighing up whether it's bullish or not is besides the point when cash enters the market. Despite tenuous claims to actual Bitcoin, it's the case that expectations/performance will become an issue again and the ensuing sentiment will stir the market until the news cycle finally gets tired of it.
It feels like the endless back and forth from the SEC has only served to lend some more attention to itself. When, truth be told, first we had the investment banking cartel dissing Bitcoin, based on whatever lies they could pull out of a hat, and this has ended in a proportion of the more upright investment community 'wanting to help'.
Good point about the halving likely being baked in to a large extent this time round, to include my own natural bullishness, possibly it is under-looked in the short-term.
reply