This article gives a pretty good history of the dollar as the world reserve currency since the end of World War 2. People interested in the subject will already know most of it, but the author does cover current events including recent Taiwan, Middle East, and Russia/Ukraine issues.
460 sats \ 7 replies \ @quark 4 Jan
It won't die easily. Lose the reserve status? Sure, because there is bitcoin now. But dying? No. The debt is looking very bad but if the dollar dies, there is no civilization left as we know it. My humble opinion.
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Civilization as we know it is breaking down as we speak. Slowly then suddenly.
This is not meant to be fearporn, or an attempt to cause panic. It is simply an objective fact imo.
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I think @kr talked about this a few weeks ago. I have been anticipating Armageddon since the late 1980s. I remember the "Japan will overtake the U.S." fear mongering. I'm not saying it can't happen. I'm just saying that in my lifetime I have witnessed a continual slow decay. I doubt Hemingway's "gradually, then suddenly" will happen. Remember, Hemingway's character went bankrupt without the power to print more money.
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I agree, and I think the author does too. It was a bit of hyperbole, I suspect. His point is mainly about the dollar losing reserve status, and I personally think that's a ways off too.
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It's a bit like the "When did Rome fall?" question. I think it's fair to refer to loss of global reserve status as death for the dollar, even if something called the US dollar still exists.
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I agree it's fair. I also think it makes sense to wonder whether something called the U.S. dollar exists. We have the Eurodollar, the petrodollar, and, maybe soon the bitcoin dollar after these etfs pass, as Whitney Webb has been warning about lately.
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The only thing I'm pretty confident about is that there will be legal continuity between the current dollar and the post reserve dollar, because their whole grift is paying off dollar denominated obligations with highly depreciated dollars.
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Bitcoin is the only chance of that. What else would be reserve? The yuan? Haha. Pesos? The euro can't even handle Europe. And they are waaay more screwed than the US.
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As the article says, the USD overtook GBP at the end of WW2 as the de facto global reserve currency. So there is the opportunity for comparison. How has the UK fared since then?
... Not terribly compared to many countries, but it is a tale of long term economic decline.
... Our public services are in long term decline, tax, gov debt and personal debt is sky high. Heathcare is often poor, and the police cant solve circa 90% of all reported crime. Most well paid working class (middle class in US speak) jobs have long gone, replaced by a minimum wage workplace. Economic and productivity growth is stagnant. ... The country hasnt gone bust though it nearly did in the 70's! ... It's not all bad, there's a lot less discrimination in the workplace than there used to be; and many other Europeans come to the UK because there are more career opportunities, and workplace/personal culture is more open than most other European countries. ... But the difference is the UK's economic decline took place at a glacial, analogue pace, over decades, and is still ongoing. ... Certainly I agree with other comnents that there's not much chance of the dollar 'failing', and no one should want that either given the destruction this would cause to everyone. However, the long term decline could still happen and things might go a lot faster in the digital age?!
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This is what a link post should look like, god damn it.
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But something touched me deep inside The day the dollar died
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I picture a dollar bill with stick figure legs sitting next to Richie Valens in the back of the plane.
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Should be sitting with the Euro and other fiat currencies on the plane if you are going to really embrace the bit.
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Agreed, but I still want them all to have stick figure legs. Maybe even arms and a head, with mouths open in an Edvard Munch scream?
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I like it.
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233 sats \ 1 reply \ @vindard 5 Jan
Sidenote, these sorts of casual mischaracterisations are always so strange
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And intentional.
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The US must default before the market will truly begin its move towards USD alternatives but who knows.
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It will be a soft default if it happens, and no one may notice. They will devalue the dollar to the point that it looks like they are paying debt service.
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I respectfully disagree. The default will come out of nowhere and be instant (The managed decline you seem to speak of has been happening over the last couple of decades. The next step is an instant default). However, this is the optimal outcome. Its like ripping off a bandaid vs pulling it off slowly.
Unfortunately the kind of people that will assume office in the wake of it will implement economic policies that are even worse than the ones that exist currently. And the next great dictator will be American. But lets see!
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I guess we'll wait and see. You might be right.
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The dollar will be the absolute last thing standing besides bitcoin.
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