Why does Linux never won over macOS and Windows? \ stacker news ~opensource

Why does Linux never won over macOS and Windows?

7512 sats \ 67 comments \ @supratic 12 Jan opensource

I really struggle to comprehend why such an amazing OS never did it over the other big two? Numbers speak clearly, looking at StatCounter Global Stats, the market share (%) of operating systems for desktop and laptop computers in October 2023 was as follows:

Linux		3.19%
Chrome OS	6.9%
macOS		18.43%
Windows		69.48%

and if you are curious, here below by region:

Region	Windows	macOS	Chrome OS	Linux
Americas	75.84%	13.5%	7.21%	3.45%
Europe	71.43%	16.82%	7.71%	4.04%
Asia	56.4%	22.1%	12.7%	8.8%
Africa	65.86%	14.33%	6.73%	3.08%
Middle East	70.4%	14.1%	9.39%	6.11%

...and by age group for the data freaks:

Age Group	Windows	macOS	Chrome OS	Linux
18-24	77.5%	11.0%	8.0%	3.5%
25-34	74.0%	13.0%	7.6%	5.4%
35-44	69.1%	14.5%	9.6%	6.8%
45-54	65.8%	16.2%	8.8%	9.2%
55-64	62.2%	17.8%	10.9%	9.1%
65+	56.4%	20.4%	12.8%	10.4%

Numbers are saying it... especially looking at the last table! Will be Linux dying with the boomers?

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601 sats \ 5 replies \ @ek 13 Jan

I think it's because a lot of PCs come with Windows preinstalled since ... basically forever?

Microsoft is a popular example of a company that issues its Windows operating systems for use by OEM computer manufacturers via the bundling of Microsoft Windows. OEM product keys are priced lower than their retail counterparts, especially as they are purchased in bulk quantities, although they use the same software as retail versions of Windows. [...]

These OEMs commonly use a procedure known as System Locked Pre-installation, which pre-activates Windows on PCs that are to be sold via mass distribution. These OEMs also commonly bundle software that is not installed on stock Windows on the images of Windows that will be deployed with their PCs (appropriate hardware drivers, anti-malware and maintenance software, various apps, etc.).

-- Wikipedia, Original Equipment Manufacturer

Defaults matter.

837 sats \ 0 replies \ @robbabuona 13 Jan

That's exactly this. No other points. The 95% of people using windows in these stase doesn't even now what is an OS, they think that windows is what makes a pc work. If Linux had a more aggressive politic for pc commercial produceer maybe the numbers could be different. This is proved also by the other point: embedded device and servers are basically monopolized by Linux.

Why?

Simple because doing fw and sw for embedded and servers is a pro thing, not for the normie. Devs and pro know much more of open source sw than normal people and they weight the right tools for develop, linux here has always won. Look the windows CE for embedded or Lumia of M$.

I remeber another kind of marketing with producer, whatsapp...many other similar products come before. On smartphone I remember Viber, but whatsapp was preinstalled and smartphone are for normies,not for curious users. They just use what they buy as it is. Touch it and you broke it.

I am still fighting with my 65 aunt, who has a laptop with, drum roll, windows 8 and pc is completely stuck after many years of use. I tried to convince her to use a Linux os and she is worried that won't work anymore! This is reality and you have to adapt to this kind of irrationa behaviour...

My two cents...

21 sats \ 3 replies \ @supratic OP 13 Jan

That's a really good point! thanks for bring it up

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @0fje0 13 Jan

Probably the key point.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @supratic OP 13 Jan

Do you think it will be possible to replicate the same "strategy" with open source OS somehow too?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @0fje0 13 Jan

I suspect you refer to the "strategy" mentioned in my other comment in reply to @nullama?

Anyway, in short: no, I don't think it could be replicated with an open source desktop OS. On mobile for example, it took a company with vast resources like Google to sort-of "replicate" the strategy with Android - as the figures you posted show.

535 sats \ 2 replies \ @_b_o_n_e_s_ 13 Jan

look at servers and look at android phones

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @supratic OP 13 Jan

Great catch, I'll check Server side OS, thanks!

Here is the mobile if you are interested #386517

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @nikotsla 13 Jan

This!

231 sats \ 1 reply \ @chairman_pretense 13 Jan

Mobile happened in 2007 and took a huge amount of momentum out of the desktop OS market.

Massive drain of developer interest went from desktop to mobile, hardware manufacturers focused on enterprise desktop sales as personal sales flat lined.

Desktop OSs in general are now focused on enterprise (Microsoft), integrated hardware manufacturers (Apple) and niche nerds (Linux).

There's no real interest in commercializing Linux desktop outside of small players who will always remain small.

20 sats \ 0 replies \ @supratic OP 13 Jan

This report above, only consider Desktop data

Mobile data here #386517

53 sats \ 1 reply \ @davidw 12 Jan

Great snapshot. Will be keen to keep an eye on this from here on out.

Funny how open-source is becoming more and more popular at the application level, but has been less so at the OS level. Hopeful the tide will change though.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @supratic OP 13 Jan

Thanks, if there's interest, I'll be happy to run this report quarterly.

open-source is becoming more and more popular at the application level Do you mean as code used to build apps?

30 sats \ 5 replies \ @zuspotirko 13 Jan

Because the Linux community is too up in their own asses to find solutions and instead expect normies to execute 2 page long instructions of command line

I'm a linux user for almost 10 years and work in tech. But 95% of the population out there isn't.

21 sats \ 3 replies \ @supratic OP 13 Jan

Sovereign individual mentality? It is maybe just an escalation process everyone need to go thought, and the OS used in their devices somehow reflects the current state of mindset.

100 sats \ 2 replies \ @zuspotirko 13 Jan

No, it has nothing to do with that. Making good software has nothing to do with mindset.

Often all a project would have to would be to repackage it into an executable file. Or provide a installation bash file. 1 day of work at most.

Techy people like me don't need it. But 99% of the population does. And Linux community is just too ignorant. Or not smart enough, for many projects I feel like they couldn't even conceive of doing the last step after 99% of the work is done - it's just beyond what their able to think of themselves sometimes.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Line2Wire 13 Jan

Incorrect - The expectation of an executable file like Windows forces users to get off the internet is precisely one of the things Linux FIXED - It is a point of education, as it's a massive security breach, but the status-quo of software downloading on windows made such actions normalised.

How does Linux fix this? Repo-based package-management using a GUI AppStore a la KDE Discover and Gnome Software. It's how grandmas download facebook on their phones, and it's exactly Linux's strength, it just needs a push on that front.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @supratic OP 13 Jan

I do not mean "make" software, I mean "using" software...

The fact is that to use linux you must be able to build it ad maintain it. Build a linux machine it's hard for most of the people, it requires priceless effort and knowledge, and it's hard to buy a prebuild one somewhere Does engineers have a advantage? Yes, but because some spend their entire life into it.

I strongly believe a linux user has a different mindset than a Windows user... that's why they're still paying for software updates.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @pako 13 Jan

"Copying and pasting is easier than looking for the correct download button in a shady webpage" is an argument you may read from many Linux elitists and one of the reasons many dev don't make GUIs for Linux.

111 sats \ 2 replies \ @Nuttall 13 Jan

If you go to the Linux Foundation look at the Platinum corporate members:

https://www.linuxfoundation.org/about/members

You will see Microsoft, IBM, Samsung, Intel and others so Linux is no joke.

10 sats \ 1 reply \ @supratic OP 13 Jan

Nice detail, so what this means for you?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Nuttall 13 Jan

The Android OS is Linux. Most tablets, e readers and smart TVs are Linux. Apple is BSD (UNIX) show there is cross development.

99 percent of the Internet is run using Linux.

The desktops, laptops are sold with Windows but I and many others just erase that and install Linux. Linux runs more on legacy equipment than does Windows or OSX.

Microsoft is a Linux Foundation partner because this is where the best security is developed.

Every computer I've ever bought I've installed Linux on. I but new ones and get rid of windows. Many people do this.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @obrusvit21 13 Jan freebie

Mac runs premium sector of personal computing. Windows runs majority of personal computing. Linux runs the rest of the world.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @MattInTech 23 Feb

Well, Linux wins big in the server space, there's no real competitor there. And for the desktop, keep in mind that Linux has a huge fragmentation (all the distro) and no centralized marketing team. Also, basically all the applications/utilities are built by the community, so it's hard to find good professional or task-specific software on Linux, reason why most people dual-boot or have a Windows machine at hand. I do the same: I would love to use a Linux distro (Opensuse Aeon <3) for professional stuff, but my company uses a lot of software that's only available for Windows/MacOS, so I have to go for a Windows VM or a Virtual Desktop.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @ssaurel 13 Jan

Microsoft has succeeded in imposing its OS pre-installation on the majority of personal computers sold. From then on, it became clear that the general public was not going to make the effort to install Linux.

In the past, the GUI on Linux was also much less user-friendly. Using the terminal was the norm.

Since the mid-2000s, with the emergence of KDE and Gnome, the progress made in terms of user-friendliness has been enormous.

Today, if you sell a personal computer with an Ubuntu distribution pre-installed, I think the user wouldn't even look elsewhere, to be honest.

So, it's more the marketing power side of Microsoft that makes the difference today. You will never have companies trying to come in and push for pre-installation of Linux distributions on personal computers.

From then on, Microsoft will continue to dominate this segment.

50 sats \ 1 reply \ @Coinosphere 13 Jan

HOLDUP, BACK UP THE BUS A SECOND!

Between all my devices I have like 20 different OSs running in my house right now. 1 is windows, 1 is apple, and alllll the rest including my phone are flavors of linux.

Those stats are heavily skewed to the point of being absurd. Your NAS isn't being counted. Your smart watch isn't being counted. Your eReader isn't being counted. Your smart appliances aren't being counted. Your umbrel/raspi node isn't being counted. Your Router certainly isn't being counted.

Heck, considering the fact that absolutely no one uses a windows phone, these stats look like they are completely discounting the phone OS market. Android (linux) is easily #1, then Apple (iOS) #2.

The bottom line is that Linux is an EXTREMELY popular OS because it's free. It's running more than half of everyone's household right now.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @supratic OP 13 Jan

this, as per highlighted in the introduction, is only referring to desktop ad laptop devices. Mobile data report can be found here #386517

And thanks for the suggestions, I'll look deeper into NAS, smartwatches and appliances. eReaders are probably included in the mobile data report as tablets.

31 sats \ 2 replies \ @nullama 13 Jan

Many factors.

First, when a random person buys a computer it comes preinstalled with either Windows or macOS.

That by itself is a game changer. Most people (90%+) mostly don't change the default settings. Imagine changing the OS, pretty much no one does this.

Second, Linux, specially in the past, was very buggy for new hardware. You had to spend days or weeks trying to make the sound work, or bluetooth, etc. And some things just can't work.

And I say this from a machine running Linux. I much prefer it, but I know I'm in the minority.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @0fje0 13 Jan

First, when a random person buys a computer it comes preinstalled with either Windows or macOS

Exactly.

Reminds me: when Windows 3.1 came out in 1992 I remember hearing a consultant tell our IT department that it was wrong to consider Windows an operating system. Rather treat it as a strategy, they said. I think history (as reflected in these figures) has proven them right.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @supratic OP 13 Jan

Yes agree on this, unfortunately it's hard to find hardware with open OS preinstalled and there are very few companies that are brave enough to does it.

The other truth is that people are lazy and want things to work for them instead of DIY to have full control and knowledge of what they are using. Really hope things will change to be superficially insane.

11 sats \ 1 reply \ @quark 12 Jan

Maybe Microsoft and gaming. But that's changing now that games run faster on Linux.

Look and compare servers and supercomputers numbers. That's a different story ;)

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @supratic OP 13 Jan

Supercomputers? What do you mean?

21 sats \ 1 reply \ @jakoyoh629 12 Jan

Linux will never die

11 sats \ 0 replies \ @supratic OP 13 Jan

until there's people like us that will use it and contribute to it

1 sat \ 0 replies \ @037447d9ca 14 Jan

Popularity is a lame metric.

1 sat \ 0 replies \ @xz 12 Jan

I think the age group speaks volumes.

This surprised me but if that's accurate, I guess it shows that there's a learning curve to adoption. Perhaps when people finally get fed up of using an OS that can't do what they want it to, similar to how security focused phone OS are increasing user bases.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @nout 20 Jan

The GNOME UX got up to par with Win or Mac UX just very recently. Like literally last year it became comparable.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @0xIlmari 14 Jan

Linus Torvalds himself has a theory:

(Basically, his claim is that no distro ever solved the application packaging issue in a developer-friendly way.)

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @riberet19 13 Jan

Interesting to see especially the age group, the older ones seem to use Linux more, I suppose that the boomers still know more than us young people, or it is simply that sometimes it is difficult for us to leave our comfort zone, I have used a couple of times Linux and it is true that it is the best OS, but I am still a Windows user and I don't even know why, well actually I do.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @supratic OP 14 Jan

Well, you can drop anytime, what keep us tides is the files and software programs we use in a daily basis. When you find a replacement, there's no way back to the centralized world!

Regarding the age group, I also think that Linux isn't that intuitive and it needs time (years) to be learned and understood... that's why (maybe) we have more boomers

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @supratic OP 13 Jan

Now that I think about searches... had a look at gTrends:

For search terms: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all_2008&gprop=youtube&q=%2Fm%2F0fpzzp,%2Fm%2F03x5qm,Tor&hl=en-AU

... and for Youtube searches: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=%2Fm%2F0fpzzp,%2Fm%2F03x5qm,Tor&hl=en-AU

People aren't asking big G anymore!

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @drlh 13 Jan

at least in steam survey linux is ahead of macos :))

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @fluff_stack 13 Jan

Just a few years ago, Linux was barely pushing 2% market share. These are pretty great increases, if you ask me! Also, QUALITY Linux focused content on YouTube and elsewhere has more than quadrupled recently.

People use what they are comfortable with. Windows and Mac are given to schools and universities for free, because it directly feeds their 80% & 15%, future purchase funnels - where they charge a premium to fund those free computers. People only look for alternatives when they get burned or fed up.

Do the same comparison on servers and "cloud" instances. Linux is king. Windows is in a forever shrinking pattern. And the more Linux servers, the more engineers who desire a matching operating system on their own computer.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @supratic OP 13 Jan

What data you were looking at?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @026180d3a3 13 Jan

Short answer: Microsoft spies all over you and reports to its masters. Contracts are made on this basis.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @john_doe 13 Jan

What about marketing? To all people I suggested and/or installed Linux on their computers it comes down to being readily available on a PC (not having to prepare a USB key to install it) and a simple intuitive interface. As much as I like KDE, Gnome is intuitive, but Linux in general is not installed by default, so we need to prepare an external peripheral. Yet in the past when I saw statistics (maybe 20 years ago) I remember Windows was around 90% of market share. So I guess it changes slowly.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @030a29f333 13 Jan

Most people just use the easiest thing. Same reason why most people don't take privacy seriously, most LN txs use custodial wallets, etc. Convenience > everything

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bitcoiner1 13 Jan

It's very interesting, I've never thought about doing some research about it.

I guess most of the people stick to the OS provided by the brand of the equipment and never want to try a new one.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @0348090484 13 Jan

I suspect, this will change soon drastically. As tensions grow between g6 and the rest of the world, it will be necessary for mobile device makers to be os agnostic. Linux adoption will rise, but the risk is real for big names like ubuntu to be captured by corporate contracts, it's already no-go option for my devices, and graphene for mobile devices.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @guts 13 Jan

Never found any Linux distribution easier to use as Windows or OSX. OSX was a good OS with Unix and still is with MacOS, Jobs era revitalized Macs. I say Linux is now strong on other devices as Raspberry Pi, Servers, or SteamOS. Linux is getting better.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @supratic OP 13 Jan

I think Ubuntu is the nearest linux distribution that consider and focus on the Ui and user experience

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @m00ninite 13 Jan

The Linux desktop just isn't as stable as Windows. Server is rock-solid, but as a user of the Linux desktop for many years.. It's not for the faint of heart.

The real win is that basically the whole internet is running on Linux, and mobile phones are built with Linux/Unix at their core

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @stackeraw 13 Jan

winds of change? bitcoin macro effect?

https://foundation.gnome.org/2023/11/09/gnome-recognized-as-public-interest-infrastructure/

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @supratic OP 13 Jan

Hope so! or just another butterfly air blow

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Bitman 13 Jan

It'd be great to dig into the data more (plus get some context) - any chance of source/links?

I love how Linux can resurrect older machines that the yearly bloat of MS leaves in it's wake.

Perhaps we need another Anita Posch to promote Linux.

It'd be a great long-term win if the Ubuntu 'variant' of Linux (which is a word commonly found in several African languages - meaning 'humanity' or 'a person is a person through other people') finally gets to steals a charge on the corporate giants there.

I'd also like to see a breakdown of how popular different Linux variants are around the world.

For instance, keeping with the Ubuntu theme, I wonder how popular the Ubuntu variant Kylin in China?

With all of the changing variables (tech, population, age) it's prettyy tricky to see how the future with any of the OS will play out.

I'd love for Linux will outlast them all though.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @supratic OP 13 Jan

I'd also like to see a breakdown of how popular different Linux variants are around the world.

Thanks, I'll try to dive deeper on this as well. The data am accessing is closed, some can be retrieved from https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share

I'm with you on the Ubutu vision and future success, but there's a lot of work to do, mostly from a mass's educational perspective

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Lumor 12 Jan

Linux is for nerds, no one customer support org with any significant feedback into development... A lot like Bitcoin.

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @jeff 12 Jan

I think support costs are more expensive on linux for corporate/office deployments.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @supratic OP 13 Jan

Why you say so? because there's no official support, so freelancers and externals contractors drive the linux "support & maintenance" market offer?

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @jeff 12 Jan

And there are niche demographics (eg. Elementary schools) where google is buying their way into the market by subsidizing the hardware im exchange for soaking up that sweet sweet data.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @supratic OP 13 Jan

Well google I thnk is trying to get into places where windows isn't caring much anymore

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @emmanuelcynthiky 14 Jan freebie

The answer is obvious: Marketing.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @turker 13 Jan freebie

Some programs doesn't have Linux version (eg. Adobe Photoshop) and people don't want to change their habits. You can offer better alternative but you can't break long-term habits.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Roll 13 Jan freebie

Other numbers since 2012

https://www.statista.com/statistics/268237/global-market-share-held-by-operating-systems-since-2009/