pull down to refresh
337 sats \ 44 replies \ @oliverweiss 9 Feb freebie \ on: Does the Economy Need Migrants? and related discussion econ
In many countries like Germany the unemployment is like what? 4%? A part of people essentially unemployable. So hearing “they take our jobs” narrative in those countries, in particular since there are so many open positions, is like seriously? I totally agree with Caplan (btw., I like his work a lot).
When I was a student and had a summer job in a neighboring wealthier country, where I manually dug holes for cables, the guy I worked with told me that people in that country don’t want to do such jobs anymore, he had a hard time to find someone.
Another thing is that people don’t seem to accept that the world is constantly changing. They are scared of changes, in particular, if they happen in their neighborhood. And then there are politicians who build all their existence on that fear. Trump, republicans, AfD, name it.
These fears are legitimate. Violent Crimes committed in Europe are overwhelmingly from North Africa, Middle East, Afghanistan
reply
In the US, illegal immigration may help to keep wages artificially low (bad for workers, good for employers), ensures future population growth (good for economic growth, bad for government obligations), and supports growth of the democratic national party membership (good for democrats, bad for republicans).
It's a nuanced issue here.
reply
Regarding population and economic growth, explain India … we should not aspire to be India or Indonesia
reply
Growth of Democrat voters is a dealbreaker.
Hispanics have the second largest incarceration rate in USA.
25 to 30 percent of prison population is foreign born.
9-11 terrorists had expired tourist visas.
Regarding population growth, USA population is currently 330 million. How much growth can we support? 1 billion?
reply
“According to Germany's Interior Ministry, 27 illegal migrants either committed or attempted to commit murder or manslaughter in 2017.
The 447 figure used by AfD actually refers to all asylum seekers and refugees, most of whom are in Germany legally.
Overall this group was 15% of the total 2,971 suspects linked to these crimes in Germany last year.”
15% is not “overwhelming”, or? I am not saying immigrants do not commit crime either.
reply
I think 15% is high or disproportionate unless asylum seekers and refugees are more than 15% of German population.
Here is USA 🇺🇸 example: over 50 percent of homicides are committed by blacks
reply
What is over 50%? 51% or 90%? How many of those “black” are refugees, asylum seekers, immigrants?
reply
60 percent
reply
Can you provide some data for this statement? Because I don’t think this is true.
reply
I can tell from your skepticism that data will not change your mind
reply
Thanks for sharing, I will give it a try. The article could be better written though, for example, the key findings by Adamson lack reference but I will try to look it up. Also there are parts that need more time to think through like this graph
I just don’t see where this 3.6% increase in the rate comes from. The reference gives some nonsense data table at this point. Moreover, as always, this would be still a correlation analysis-these are tricky.
reply
Yup. I haven't read it, but just from what you showed it's got the signs of the classic ice cream causes people to drown argument.
reply
Who doesn’t love ice cream except for dieters?
reply
Presumably the people who drown are less enthused, but admittedly I'm guessing.
reply
Who is drowning in the context of immigration?
Are you comparing immigrants to ice cream? Bad metaphor
Where do you live? Germany?
reply
Does it matter? Don’t take me wrong, I think it’s ok people are scared, I think this is something we as humans have encoded in our genes and that helped us to survive. I have problem with the politicians who are feeding the devil.
reply
Which politicians? Trump? Le Pen? Geert Wilders?
reply
Exactly! And many others.
reply
I support Trump because he agrees with me not because he persuaded or brainwashed me
reply
And so you don’t mind that Trump is a proven liar, cheater, fraud, criminal, disrespectful, disgusting person offending anyone from women to people of different race or nationality?
deleted by author
reply
deleted by author
reply
deleted by author
reply
So hearing “they take our jobs” narrative in those countries, in particular since there are so many open positions, is like seriously?
I have the same reaction. I'm willing to accept that the argument could be true, but it's the same in the States -- basically permanently short-staffed bc they can't hire. So it's a lot to swallow.
Of course, the other side would say: you just can't hire at that wage.
And then the other side would say: if I pay wages I could hire with, I'm out of business.
So if immigrants will work for wages natives won't, are we better off or worse? I can't figure it out.
reply
Permanently understaffed?
Which industry? Don’t say agriculture
reply
Drive down main street of a small to medium sized town. The ones that are there -- restaurants, car mechanics, drug stores, basically everything.
reply
Those businesses are not understaffed and it’s not permanent
reply
The wage issue is the least important. The latest arrivals are getting free room and board and medical care.
Labor markets adjust. Employers adjust. Old businesses go under, new businesses start. Circle of life