I agree with most of what you said but you're overlooking the incentive bitcoin gives nations to put it in their treasury. As it grows more valuable it becomes impossible to overlook as an alternative to gold... And it's one that many big countries have lots of already, confiscated from scammers.

Once they start adding it to their treasury the game changes massively. They'll be incentivized to protect bitcoin or else shoot themselves in the foot, financially.

El Salvador was the 1st to add BTC as an official treasury asset and plenty others are in a gray area there like Bhutan & Georgia. It's just a domino progression from here, as the price grows more and more governments will be forced to do the same until they all have. Game theory demands this.

So the only question I worry about is weather or not we'll see BTC as a treasury asset in the US before some kind of authoritarian wave passes through US politics, creating a 6102 moment. Maybe even then all our digital asset SuperPACs would stop that from happening outright, but it's still a race nonetheless.