❓ Would You Still Consider Bitcoin a Success If ... \ stacker news ~bitcoin

❓ Would You Still Consider Bitcoin a Success If ...

2469 sats \ 37 comments \ @Skipper 27 Feb bitcoin

It doesn't take much scrolling on Twitter or even Nostr to realize one thing...

If Bitcoin value hits $1 million, most people will cash out back to fiat and go crazy on consumerism; and those who manage to hold onto their coins but have not prioritized ~privacy and ~security will eventually, one by one, lose their holdings to hackers, or $5 wrench attacks.

In a few years, it's possible that the majority of available (on-chain) Bitcoin would be in the hands of just:

Large companies
ETFs
Governments
and cypherpunks bitcoin maxis

❓ If that were to happen, would you still consider bitcoin a success?

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399 sats \ 0 replies \ @nerd2ninja 27 Feb

Yes? Wealth concentration was never a fail condition in my mind. The fail conditions for me are more about whether we shake custodians or not.

There's actually 3 fail conditions I think of specifically (because people have gone and made very complex things that I've had to explain my disdain with)

Rehypothecation risk If we can fail due to rehypothecation and move and learn from it, then we take a temporary fail (hopefully limited in scope fail) and turn it into a win long term.
Theft risk (as a constant normal part of using the protocol) It was weird how I had to separate rehypothecation from theft risk, but it became necessary in explaining my distain for certain things people built. Again this can be limited in scope (individuals being at a loss for how to protect themselves) or at scale (entire countries using custodians and being at risk of being rugged) which means individuals can fail or entire countries can fail.
Censorship risk If you can't send to someone you want to send to, and you can only send to people, as an example, who would give you a bad deal, that's a fail.

If these failures are systemic and impossible to correct with effort no matter how long that may take for either technical or social/cultural reasons, then that in my mind is an absolute and total failure.

477 sats \ 2 replies \ @kepford 27 Feb

In my view bitcoin is already a success in that it allows anyone to transact with anyone without a middle man. What you are describing is mass adoption so let me focus on that.

Like many questions about bitcoin we have already seen what happens. When bitcoin hits a new ATH many trade their precious bitcoin for crap. And each time this happens and bitcoin rises from the massive drop in market price again people kick themselves for their stupidity. What we are witnessing is people learning hard lessons. People talk a lot. I have no doubt that many will sell their bitcoin when it hits another ATH but there are many ways to exchange value for value. This does not mean selling it all for fiat. That said, some people will never learn. We can't help them.

Here's another funny thing about your scenario to think about. If we enter a world where governments and large companies have stronger hands than bitcoiners we are gonna be living in an upside down world. Many of us believe the governments and banks of the world are playing with fire. They are playing a game of musical chairs and when the music stops a massive amount of the world is going to be hurting overnight. This may not happen in the next 10 years or even the next 20 years but it will happen. And when it does the world will need a money that can't be centrally controlled by evil bankers. That to me is the end goal of bitcoin. To save us from the evil system.

Those that understand bitcoin's value will not sell it when it is valued at whatever. Those that understand the value of something are rewarded for their foresight. So yeah, I consider that a "success".

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Skipper OP 27 Feb

Great answer!!! 🫡

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 27 Feb

Put another way, what you describe is why some people are wealthy and successful and most are not.

High time preference. This has nothing to do with bitcoin. Bitcoin could just replace the fiat system. It won't magically make people stop being dumb.

173 sats \ 1 reply \ @Coinsreporter 27 Feb

Yes, and your ifs and buts don't really matter. Bitcoin is a success and what matters most is its current success. Noone care what will it be like in 2050.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Skipper OP 27 Feb

If you don't know what you're talking about, don't bother replying.

33 sats \ 3 replies \ @Enemy_of_the_state 27 Feb

If Bitcoin value hits $1 million, most people will cash out back to fiat and go crazy on consumerism; and those who manage to hold onto their coins but have not prioritized ~privacy and ~security will eventually, one by one, lose their holdings to hackers, or $5 wrench attacks.

If it hits $1M….that might be 10% adoption. Maybe a lot of people who don’t understand it will “cash out”…it doesn’t matter.

Everything is good for Bitcoin. Anyone who sells Bitcoin for fiat or fiat garbage is exactly where the wealth should be drained from. Those stuck in the old paradigm should have less power over time.

By the time it hits $1M in nominal terms, what will be the purchasing power? $200k? That’s nothing.

When 100 sats buys 1kg ribeye steak, I might spend some Bitcoin to buy a ranch and start a business. Fiat will probably be dead by then and the dollar value meaningless. Maybe I won’t live to see that, but I won’t be blowing my BTC on much of anything when it’s $1M or even $10M.

If inflation continues unabated, I would expect $10M BTC in a decade, which might buy a nice house…or might not.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Skipper OP 27 Feb

Anyone who sells Bitcoin for fiat or fiat garbage is exactly where the wealth should be drained from. Those stuck in the old paradigm should have less power over time.

That's the point i was trying to get to with this question.

If 99% of the supply gets completely captured by the fiat system and become another asset under their control - because dumbfucks sold their coins back to fiat melting ice, would that be a success? Maybe it would be for the maxis who hodl it, but for the rest of the world... not so sure.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @cyberpunk02 27 Feb

? people only sell when they make a value judgement that it is worth it to them, which gives them the control. . The people who receive the bitcoin for the service are only the fiat world if they choose to and they will choose that less and less often.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Enemy_of_the_state 28 Feb

Exactly. It’s voluntary, Bitcoin is still a success. I’m sure the Bitcoin hodlers will have plenty of employment opportunities for the people who squandered their Bitcoin…

We can’t save everyone, in fact, more than half the world doesn’t want to be free. They want safety and not to have to think for themselves. Those are precisely the people who won’t have Bitcoin, and that’s OK.👌

33 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 27 Feb

That wouldn't be ideal. I guess if it was completely captured by the fiat system and it just another asset under their control it wouldn't be a success even if it is worth a lot in fiat terms but as long as it offers users an alternative to the fiat system and an option to store their wealth securely without intermediaries it is a success regardless of price and who the holders are.

33 sats \ 0 replies \ @fred 27 Feb

Posts like this are a reminder of not your keys not your coins

1165 sats \ 0 replies \ @ladyluck 27 Feb

Yes it still will be a success, people were too focus on the value of Bitcoin that they forget its core function therefore they lost out but the use of Bitcoin is still possible

42 sats \ 3 replies \ @alamino 27 Feb

I don't believe people will cash out in the DAY bitcoin reaches 1 million. It really does not make sense. Price raising is gradual, full of downs. It is like the frog being boiled.... There is no "people cashing out and going into consumerism". People are cashing out when they have to use money or they want to. Again, the reality is that Bitcoin is a success. ETFs are the evidences. Just stack and be happy. Bitcoin is Money. Anyone does whatever he/she wants.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Skipper OP 27 Feb

There is no "people cashing out and going into consumerism".

I strongly disagree.

If i give you $10M, you would likely throw it all on luxury items like Buggatis and engage in consumerism to live like a king and show off to friends. This is just the reality of the situation. A quick scroll through Twitter, Nostr, Youtube and even here on StackerNews demonstrates this point... people are obsessed with price, bitcoiners are no different than shitcoiners. Very few will live a humble life if they got giga rich through Bitcoin.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @cyberpunk02 27 Feb

social media and fiat king USA is skewing your data set, bitcoin drastically reduces bad quality spending

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @alamino 27 Feb

My point is that this is gradual...

1 sat \ 1 reply \ @r3drun3 27 Feb

deleted by author

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Skipper OP 27 Feb

Your reply has nothing to do with topic, don't bother replying.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @r3drun3 28 Feb

If a single Bitcoin reaches a value of 1 million dollars, it's likely that people will be willing to accept payments in Bitcoin. Essentially, there will be no need to cash out; instead, there will be the option to directly make payments. Never exchange your Bitcoin for fiat; spend your Bitcoin!

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Line2Wire 27 Feb

As long as tick tock, next block happens, Bitcoin is a success.

Bitcoin"s core value proposition is in that mechanism.

The price means nothing, as long as it's not zero. The higher the price, the more liquidity it can handle, and the more people can use it. But limited usage can be extremely useful too - Look at Tor.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @034b483ee7 27 Feb

From my prospective, BTC was intended as an payment system for everyday people. When everyday people are using BTC in trade for services, products, and labor, it will be a success in my book. Until that day comes, I'll just HODL.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @cyberpunk02 27 Feb

Normal average people understand that bitcoin is going up forever before they decide how to get out and what to waste their bitcoin on.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @03479d0ee6 27 Feb

I don't agree that when bitcoin hits 1M that most people will cash out, first because it's not overnight, people will sell and buy at all levels, it's like saying most people will cashout at 100k, even if some do, we will have a dip and many will buy. Second because if someone hodl until 1M, it's likely he understands bitcoin and won't sell because bitcoin has been winning proving he was right all the time and usd is dead against BTC, also adoption could be much higher. Regarding your scenario with all the ifs that I don't agree, I would consider it a failure. I would believe more in an ending like that because onchain fees got so high that no one can afford to own onchain btc.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @037447d9ca 27 Feb

well if most holders cash out then it won't be long at $1m as the price would drop, and not every one of them will be able to cash out at that price

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Skipper OP 27 Feb

The big guys(& maxis) will capture the coins either way. If they get their hands on 99% of the supply, would that be a success to you? That's the topic of this post.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @oliverweiss 27 Feb

I see I am not the only one having this terrible nightmare.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Skipper OP 27 Feb

It's not a nightmare at all. If you are a cypherpunk bitcoin maxi, you will win. As for the rest of the fake bitcoiners aka "investors" who will sell back for fiat, ngmi.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @DarthCoin 27 Feb

If Bitcoin value hits $1 million,

You lost me at that... You simply do not understand what really is Bitcoin.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Skipper OP 27 Feb

You lost me

Hopefuly i lost you for ever.

You simply do not understand what really is Bitcoin.

You simply did not understand the point of the topic before you replied that shit to me. Read again or get lost.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @OT 27 Feb

It would be disappointing. I guess in such a scenario it would have BEEN a success

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Skipper OP 27 Feb

That's my take aswell.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @hasherstacker 27 Feb

Bitcoin is success. The so called 'value in fiat' , is only a propaganda

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Skipper OP 27 Feb

Your reply has nothing to do with topic, don't bother replying.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @UCantDoThatDotRugged 27 Feb

It's dependent on the economic reality at that point. The hypothetical makes unlikely assumptions. Bitcoin doesn't hit $1million while people feel the same about the dollar and the stock market and other alternative places to park money that they do today. Bitcoin doesn't hit $1million while the chart looks like it does today. Bitcoin doesn't hit $1million while there are still a million of them to be mined. Bitcoin doesn't hit $1 million while most things for most normies need to be purchased with dollars.

The answer to the question 'will I consider Bitcoin a success,' is also dependant on what percentage is held by those four categories, and whether 'majority' means 51% or 99%.

FWIW, that's the wrong question - success/non-success binary is not nuanced enough to have much meaning.

10 sats \ 1 reply \ @Skipper OP 27 Feb

Let's say in the next decade, the value goes so high that most dumbfucks end up selling their stack back to fiat - and 99% of the available Bitcoin end up getting captured by ETFs, Companies, Gov and Maxis.

Would that still be a success?

I am asking this because that's what it seems to be happening. I will win either way, however, I do worry (a little) that it will get completely captured by the fiat system and become another asset under their control, just like @grayruby mentioned.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @UCantDoThatDotRugged 27 Feb

Yes that's more like it. I would say yes, it's semantic though. Yes because millions of people are orange pilled - not to Bitcoin per se, but to economic reality. Thus, whatever replaces centralized Bitcoin will be at a great head start to where Bitcoin was when it started.